April 2026
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2026-05-20
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| BIF | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| D.R.C | Democratic Republic of Congo | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuel and Utilities | |
| FOB | Free on Board | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KSh | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| RWF | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TZS | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UNOC | Uganda National Oil Company | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
Economic activity continued to improve in April 2026 with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the high frequency indicator of economic activity increasing from 54.3 in March 2026 to 55.0 in April 2026. The improvement was mainly driven by sustained expansions in output and employment, due to increased customer demand (new orders).
Sentiments about doing business in Uganda remained positive during the month as reflected by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which remained above the 50-mark threshold, and was recorded at 55.8 in April 2026. Investors mainly expressed positive sentiments about increasing demand as indicated by increase in order volumes, expected employment and competition within the various sectors.
Annual headline inflation increased to 3.0 percent in April 2026 from 2.8 percent in March, mainly due to higher domestic fuel prices and related increases in transport costs. Fuel prices rose following continued increases in international oil prices driven by global geopolitical tensions. The impact of rising global oil prices was however moderated by government efforts to ensure stable fuel supply through centralized fuel imports by Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) and the management of strategic fuel reserves in Jinja. As a result, fuel pump prices in Uganda remained relatively stable and lower than in other EAC countries.
Financial Sector
In April 2026, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated by 0.4 percent against the US Dollar, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,716.70/USD from Shs 3,730.53/USD in March 2026, a rebound from the depreciations registered in the past two months. This appreciation was mainly driven by increased foreign exchange inflows from exports and portfolio investors, which outstripped demand for the dollar from the manufacturing and energy sectors.
The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 9.75 percent in April 2026. Bank of Uganda assessed that, although risks arising from the conflict in the Middle East could exert upward pressure on inflation, the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate and well aligned with prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
The weighted average lending rate on Shilling-denominated credit remained relatively stable, increasing marginally from 18.73 percent in February 2026 to 18.89 percent in March 2026. On the other hand, the weighted average lending rate on foreign-currency-denominated credit declined from 7.09 percent to 6.65 percent over the same period.
In April 2026, Shs. 1,574.67 billion was raised from three auctions of Government securities on the domestic primary market. Of the total amount, Shs. 523.59 billion was raised from Treasury Bills (T-Bills) while Shs. 1,051.09 billion was raised from Treasury Bonds (T-Bonds).
Yields (interest rates) on short term instruments (T-Bills) declined for the fourth consecutive month across all tenors in April 2026. Yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors reduced to 10.4 percent, 11.2 percent and 12.1 percent in April 2026 from 10.5 percent, 11.8 percent and 12.3 percent respectively in March 2026. The decline in yields for Treasury Bills reflects supply and demand factors, with Government’s demand for financing declining during the second half of the financial year compared to the first half.
On the other hand, yields (interest rates) on T-Bonds increased slightly in April 2026 compared to the rates registered in previous issuances of similar securities. In particular, yields for the 3-year, 10-year, and 20-year bond tenors increased to 13.39 percent, 15.50 percent and 16.10 percent, up from 13.30 percent, 14.50 percent and 15.49 percent, respectively.
The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit increased by 2.3 percent from Shs 25,377.04 billion in February 2026 to Shs 25,965.17 billion in March 2026. The growth was registered in both Shilling-denominated credit, which rose from Shs 17,827.15 billion to Shs 18,204.98 billion, and foreign-currency denominated credit, which increased from Shs 7,549.89 billion to Shs 7,760.19 billion over the period.
External Sector2
In March 2026, Uganda’s merchandise trade with the rest of the world improved, attributed to a faster increase in export receipts which outpaced the rise in the import bill. Year-on-year, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 54.1 percent to USD 47.75 million in March 2026 compared to USD 103.92 million in March 2025. Month-on-month, the merchandise trade deficit improved by 29.5 percent from USD 67.76 million in February 2026.
Year-on-year, Uganda’s export earnings grew by 45.6 percent to USD 1,446.12 million in March 2026, compared to USD 992.98 million in March 2025. This growth was mainly on account of a significant increase in mineral export receipts over this period. Relatedly, on a month-on-month basis, export earnings increased by 5.8 percent from USD 1,367.42 million in February 2026, mainly driven by higher receipts from cotton, tea and mineral exports.
Uganda’s import bill grew by 36.2 percent year-on-year, rising from USD 1,096.90 million in March 2025 to USD 1,493.87 million in March 2026, driven by higher import volumes for mineral products (excluding petroleum products); machinery, equipment, vehicles & accessories; vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oil; among others. On a monthly basis, imports grew by 4.1 percent from USD 1,435.18 million in February 2026, mainly attributed to higher import volumes for vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oil; prepared foodstuff, beverages & tobacco; chemical and related products; wood and wood products; among others.
Fiscal Sector3
Government operations during April 2026 resulted in a fiscal deficit (net borrowing) of Shs 264.51 billion, which was lower than the projected deficit of Shs 452.13 billion for the month. This was on account of lower than planned spending on acquisition of non-financial assets during the month.
Overall, domestic revenue collections amounted to Shs 2,664.19 billion in April 2026, representing a 90.8 percent performance against the monthly target of Shs 2,933.56 billion. Of the total collections, Shs 2,472.83 billion was tax revenue, while Shs 191.37 billion was non-tax revenue. Tax revenue collections fell short of the target of Shs 2,633.00 billion by Shs 160.17 billion, due to underperformance across the three major tax categories, namely direct domestic taxes, indirect domestic taxes, and taxes on international trade transactions during the month.
Total government expenses in April 2026 amounted to Shs 2,818.01 billion compared to the programmed expenses of Shs 2,588.76 billion, resulting in an overspend of Shs 229.25 billion. The higher-than planned expenses were mainly registered under grants from the Central Government to local governments, tertiary institutions, and other government agencies including the Uganda Airlines.
In April 2026, government spent Shs 165.23 billion on acquisition of non-financial assets which included infrastructure projects like roads and bridges and land for right of way. However, the total amount spent on acquisition of non-financial assets during the month was significantly lower than what had been programmed, mainly on account of slow disbursement of funds for externally financed projects.
Annual headline inflation during April 2026, increased across majority of EAC Partner States particularly Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda but reduced in Burundi. The dominant factor leading to the general increase was the rise in both fuel and transport costs across the region. Headline inflation was highest in Rwanda at 11.5 percent, followed by Burundi at 8.6%, Kenya at 5.6 percent, Tanzania at 4.0 percent and Uganda at 3.0 percent.
Currencies across the East African Community recorded mixed movements against the US Dollar in April 2026. The Ugandan and Kenyan Shillings appreciated by 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent, respectively, while the Tanzanian Shilling, Burundian Franc, and Rwandan Franc posted depreciation rates of 1.1 percent, 0.2 percent, and 0.1 percent, respectively.
During March 2026, Uganda traded at a deficit of USD 44.33 million with the EAC Partner States, which was lower than the deficit of USD 59.95 million recorded in February 2026. This was on account of a 17.0 percent increase in export receipts which more than offset the 9.2 percent increment in the import bill over the period.
1 Real Sector Developments
1.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation increased to 3.0 percent in April 2026 from 2.8 percent the previous month. This was mainly attributed to an increase in both Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) inflation and core inflation following the rise in domestic fuel prices and associated transport costs.
Annual core inflation increased to 3.0 percent in April 2026 from 2.9 percent the previous month majorly driven by an increase in transport costs.
More broadly, the overall cost of passenger transport services increased on a year-on-year basis to 4.2 percent in April 2026 from 0.6 percent the previous month triggered by the rise in international fuel prices.
Specifically, bus fares for long distance travel increased year-on-year by 2.0 percent in April 2026 from a 3.4 percent decline in March 2026, taxi fares for medium distance increased year-on-year by 2.7 percent in April 2026 from a 0.3 percent decline in March 2026, domestic flight fares increased by 2.7 percent year-on-year in April 2026 from a 3.8 percent decline in March 2026, while international flight fares increased year-on-year by 18.6 percent in April 2026 from 4.0 percent increase in March 2026.
Annual Energy Fuel and Utilities inflation continued on an upward trend increasing to 6.1 percent in April 2026 from 4.1 percent the previous month. This was mainly driven by an increase in domestic fuel prices as well as an increase in charcoal prices. Domestic fuel prices rose on account of a continued increase in international oil prices following global geo-political tensions.
Nonetheless, the impact of rising international oil prices continues to be moderated through government’s efforts to ensure consistent fuel supply through centralized procurement of fuel imports by the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) along with efforts to manage strategic fuel reserves in Jinja to minimize shortages. As a result, fuel pump prices in Uganda have been relatively stable and lower compared to other countries in the EAC region.
In contrast, annual food crop inflation declined to 0.6 percent in April 2026 from 1.0 percent in the previous month. This decline was mainly driven by larger reductions in the prices of some food crops, alongside a slower increase in the prices of others, as favorable weather conditions boosted harvests and improved food supply across the country.
Food crops that recorded a further reduction in prices included; mangoes, tomatoes, egg plants, cucumber, green pepper, beans, sweet potatoes, peas and malewa. Other food crops that recorded a slowdown in the rate at which their prices increased included; avocados, papaya, groundnuts and Irish potatoes.
1.2 Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to improve in April 2026 as shown by the Purchasing Managers Index. Compared to March 2025, the Composite Index of Economic Activity grew by 6.2% to 184.2 in March 2026, although it declined compared to the month before. Sentiments about doing business among investors in the country also remained positive as shown by the Business Tendency Index.
1.2.1 Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)6
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 55.0 in April 2026 from 54.3 in March 2026, marking the 15th consecutive monthly improvement in the level of economic activity. The rise in the PMI was driven by sustained expansions in output and employment, supported by increased customer demand (new orders), with output growth broad-based across all monitored sectors7. Firms however increased output prices on account of a rise in total input costs as fuel prices and corresponding transportation costs increased.
For the months ahead, private companies remained optimistic about a rise in output over the coming year. Optimism stemmed from hopes of greater customer numbers, and increased price stability, especially for fuel in the next few months following assurance from UNOC about continued supply of oil and sufficiency of oil reserves.
Positive sentiment was recorded in all the monitored sectors.
1.2.2 Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA)8
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) has been on an upward trend since the start of the financial year indicating a gradual rise in economic activity. This is in spite of a decline observed in March 2025 mainly attributed to weaker performance in indicators of consumption and business activity, particularly mobile money transactions and excise duty collections.
1.2.3 Business Perceptions
In April 2026, the Business Tendency Index (BTI)9 remained above the 50-mark threshold at 55.8 indicating optimism about business conditions among the private sector players. This however was a decline from the 58.0 recorded in the previous month.
Investors mainly expressed positive sentiments about order volumes with suppliers, the financial situation, expected employment, and competition within the various sectors. Positive sentiments however reduced for the present business situation, the business situation in the next three months as well as current and future demand for services.
At sectoral level, optimism was mainly observed in the manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and financial services sectors.
2 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Exchange Rate Movements
In April 2026, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated by 0.4 percent against the US Dollar, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,716.70/USD from Shs 3,730.53/USD in March 2026, a rebound from the depreciations registered in the past two months. This appreciation was mainly driven by increased foreign exchange inflows from exports and portfolio investors, which outstripped demand for the dollar from the manufacturing and energy sectors.
On the other hand, the Shilling continued to register depreciations against other selected major international currencies, particularly the Euro and the British Pound Sterling over the same period.
Against the Euro, the Shilling weakened by 0.9 percent to an average mid-rate of Shs 4,350.71/EUR in April 2026 from Shs 4,311.83/EUR in March 2026. Similarly, the Shilling depreciated by 0.5 percent against the British Pound Sterling, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 5,004.85/GBP compared to Shs 4,977.87/GBP in the previous month.
This performance was mainly attributed to the strengthening of the Euro and the British Pound Sterling against the US Dollar, partly driven by increased portfolio inflows into European debt assets, which were perceived by investors as relatively safer avenues amid continued uncertainty surrounding the US Dollar.
2.2 Interest Rate Movements
Interest rates showed divergent movements across the financial market, with differing trends in the policy rate, commercial bank lending rates, and yields on government securities.
In April 2026, the Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 9.75 percent. Bank of Uganda assessed that, although risks arising from the conflict in the Middle East could exert upward pressure on inflation, the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate and well aligned with prevailing macroeconomic conditions.
2.3 Lending Rates10
The weighted average lending rate on Shilling-denominated credit remained relatively stable, increasing marginally from 18.73 percent in February 2026 to 18.89 percent in March 2026. On the other hand, the weighted average lending rate on foreign-currency-denominated credit declined from 7.09 percent in February 2026 to 6.65 percent in March 2026.
This performance was partly driven by a reduction in the risk premuim charged by banks given the continued decline in non-performing loans.
2.4 Government Securities
In April 2026, Shs. 1,574.67 billion was raised from three auctions of Government securities on the domestic primary market. Of the total amount, Shs. 523.59 billion was raised from T-Bills while Shs. 1,051.09 billion was raised from T-Bonds. A total of Shs. 987.53 billion was used for financing other items in the budget while Shs. 587.15 billion was used for refinancing maturing securities.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025/26 | 6,299.8 | 4,080.1 | 2,219.6 |
| April 2026 | 1,574.7 | 987.5 | 587.1 |
| FY 2025/26 to date | 20,869.1 | 13,383.6 | 7,485.5 |
2.5 Annualized Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on short term instruments (T-Bills) declined for the fourth consecutive month across all tenors in April 2026. Yields on the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors reduced to 10.4 percent, 11.2 percent and 12.1 percent in April 2026 from 10.5 percent, 11.8 percent and 12.3 percent respectively in March 2026. The decline in yields for Treasury Bills reflects supply and demand factors, with Government’s demand for financing declining during the second half of the financial year compared to the first half.
All auctions for Treasury Bills remained oversubscribed, with an average bid to cover ratio recorded at 2.23 in April 2026.
2.6 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bonds
In April 2026, Government held auctions for the 3-year, 10-year and 20-year bond tenors on the primary securities market. Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bonds increased slightly in April 2026 compared to the rates registered in previous issuances of similar securities. In particular, yields for the 3-year, 10-year, and 20-year bond tenors increased to 13.39 percent, 15.50 percent and 16.10 percent, up from 13.30 percent, 14.50 percent and 15.49 percent, respectively.
This marked a reversal of the recent declining trend in yields for Treasury Bonds partly on account of rising inflation as a result of the global tensions in the Middle East. Consequently, investors demanded relatively higher yields to compensate for anticipated inflation risks.
2.7 Outstanding Private Sector Credit11
The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit increased by 2.3 percent from Shs 25,377.04 billion in February 2026 to Shs 25,965.17 billion in March 2026. The growth was registered in both Shilling-denominated credit, which rose from Shs 17,827.15 billion to Shs 18,204.98 billion, and foreign-currency denominated credit, which increased from Shs 7,549.89 billion to Shs 7,760.19 billion over the period, as shown in figure 11 below.
This monthly growth was higher than the 0.8 percent growth recorded in March 2025, indicating higher private sector credit expansion during the period.
On a year on year basis, the stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit exhibited an 11.4 percent growth, from Shs 23,305.19 billion in March 2025 to Shs 25,965.17 billion in March 2026. The increase was mainly driven by higher demand for credit, supported by improved economic activity, alongside a reduction in non-performing loans in the banking sector.
2.8 Credit Extensions12
The credit approved for disbursement in March 2026 amounted to Shs 1,996.03 billion out of total loan applications worth Shs 3,083.57 billion. This translated into an approval rate of 64.7 percent, down from 69.9 percent in February 2026, but still higher than the 48.6 percent recorded in the same month the previous year (March 2025).
As was the case in both March 2025 and February 2026, personal & household loans accounted for the largest share of credit disbursements, taking up 26.7 percent (Shs 533.2 billion) of the total approvals in March 2026. Of this amount, Shs 163.2 billion was electronic money credit (mobile money loans).
Other major recipients of credit included business, community, social & other services at 16.7 percent (Shs 333.5 billion), agriculture at 15.0 percent (Shs 300.3 billion), building, mortgage, construction & real estate at 14.4 percent (Shs 288.1 billion), trade at 13.6 percent (Shs 271.2 billion) and manufacturing at 7.1 percent (Shs 142.6 billion).
3 External Sector Developments
3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance13
In March 2026, Uganda’s merchandise trade with the rest of the world improved, attributed to a faster increase in export receipts which outpaced the rise in the import bill.
Year-on-year, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 54.1 percent to USD 47.75 million in March 2026 compared to USD 103.92 million in March 2025. Month-on-month, the merchandise trade deficit improved by 29.5 percent from USD 67.76 million in February 2026.
3.2 Merchandise Exports14
Export earnings increased by 45.6 percent on a year-on-year basis to USD 1,446.12 million in March 2026 from USD 992.98 million in March 2025. This growth was mainly driven by higher receipts from gold, oil re-exports, electricity, tobacco, among others.
Gold export earnings more than doubled, increasing by 121.1 percent from USD 385.08 million to USD 851.35 million over the same period. This was largely due to higher global gold prices. There has been upward pressure on global gold prices as gold is perceived a safe haven in an increasingly uncertain global environment that has seen Central Banks diversify their reserve assets.
In contrast, coffee export earnings declined to USD 173.36 million in March 2026 from USD 198.94 million in March 2025. This decline was fully driven by lower prices whereby the average unit price of coffee was USD 4.31 per kilogram in March 2026, compared to USD 5.16 per kilogram in March 2025. Volumes of coffee exported increased by 4.4 percent to 671,152 sixty-kilogram bags from 642,981 sixty-kilogram bags, on account of improved production. This increase however, was not sufficient to offset the decline in prices and this led to a decline in coffee export receipts during the period under review.
When compared to February 2026, export earnings increased by 5.8 percent to USD 1,446.12 million in March 2026 from USD 1,367.42 million. The main drivers for this increase were gold, cotton, tea, electricity, sugar, oil re-exports, among others.
| Product | Mar-2025 | Feb-2026 | Mar-2026 |
Mar-2026 vs Mar-2025 % Change |
Mar-2026 vs Feb-2026 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 992.98 | 1,367.42 | 1,446.12 | 45.63 | 5.76 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 198.94 | 180.98 | 173.37 | -12.85 | -4.21 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 4.38 | 2.95 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 5.16 | 4.63 | 4.31 | -16.51 | -6.95 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 730.76 | 1,118.77 | 1,189.62 | 62.79 | 6.33 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 385.08 | 818.16 | 851.35 | 121.08 | 4.06 |
| Cotton | 2.2 | 0.78 | 2.45 | 11.27 | 213.9 |
| Tea | 3.9 | 4.07 | 4.35 | 11.55 | 6.74 |
| Tobacco | 2.86 | 5.94 | 4.09 | 42.78 | -31.12 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 12.32 | 11.28 | 10.31 | -16.35 | -8.59 |
| Simsim | 6.08 | 1.35 | 1.46 | -76.04 | 8.31 |
| Maize | 8.34 | 10.01 | 7.3 | -12.48 | -27.05 |
| Beans | 4.33 | 4.58 | 4.39 | 1.29 | -4.22 |
| Flowers | 5.48 | 6.27 | 5.6 | 2.29 | -10.63 |
| ICBT Exports | 63.28 | 67.67 | 83.14 | 31.38 | 22.86 |
3.3 Destination of Exports15
The Middle East remained Uganda’s largest export destination in March 2026, accounting for 37.2 percent of the country’s total exports. On a country specific level, the United Arab Emirates absorbed the largest share, taking up 99.5 percent of Uganda’s exports to the region.
Other notable trading blocs were Asia and East African Community (EAC) which accounted for 25.3 percent and 21.8 percent, respectively of Uganda’s total exports during the month.
3.4 Merchandise Imports16
In comparison to the same month the previous year, the import bill grew by 36.2 percent from USD 1,096.90 million in March 2025 to USD 1,493.87 million in March 2026. This growth was attributed to higher government project imports and higher import volumes from formal private sector specifically, mineral products (excluding petroleum products); machinery, equipment, vehicles & accessories; vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oil; among others.
Similarly, on a monthly basis, the value of merchandise imports increased by 4.1 percent, from USD 1,435.18 million in February 2026 to USD 1,493.87 million in March 2026. This was mainly attributed to higher volumes from government project imports and formal private sector imports particularly, vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oil; prepared foodstuff, beverages & tobacco; chemical and related products; wood and wood products; among others.
3.5 Origin of Imports
During the month of March 2026, Asia, EAC and the Rest of Africa regions were the largest source of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 31.0 percent, 24.1 percent and 22.7 percent, respectively. Within Asia, China, India and Japan were the major sources of imports, accounting for 56.4 percent, 17.1 percent and 10.0 percent of the total imports from the region, respectively.
Other notable sources of Uganda’s imports included the Middle East and the European Union, which accounted for 11.1 percent and 7.4 percent of the total imports, respectively.
3.6 Trade Balance by Region
During the month of March 2026, Uganda recorded a trade surplus with both the Middle East and European Union amounting to USD 371.47 million and USD 25.24 million, respectively.
On the other hand, trade deficits were recorded with Asia (USD 96.2 million), Rest of Africa (USD 277.95 million), EAC (USD 44.33 million) and Rest of Europe at USD 14.76 million.
| Region | Mar 2025 | Feb 2026 | Mar 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 191.09 | 539.81 | 371.47 |
| European Union | 126.95 | 56.27 | 25.24 |
| Rest of Europe | 2.65 | -10.88 | -14.76 |
| EAC | -77 | -59.95 | -44.33 |
| Asia | -209.5 | -218.18 | -96.2 |
| Rest of Africa | -141.14 | -371.06 | -277.95 |
| Other Countries | 3.04 | -3.75 | -11.22 |
4 Fiscal Developments17
Preliminary data shows that government operations during April 2026 resulted in a fiscal deficit (net borrowing) of Shs 264.51 billion. This was lower than the projected deficit of Shs 452.13 billion for the month, on account of lower than planned spending on acquisition of non-financial assets during the month.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (Including grants) | 3,102.82 | 2,718.72 | 87.6% | -384.1 |
| Domestic Revenue | 2,933.56 | 2,664.19 | 90.8% | -269.37 |
| Taxes | 2,633 | 2,472.83 | 93.9% | -160.17 |
| Other revenue (Non-tax revenue) | 300.57 | 191.37 | 63.7% | -109.2 |
| Grants | 169.25 | 54.53 | 32.2% | -114.72 |
| o/w: Project support | 169.25 | 54.53 | 32.2% | -114.72 |
| Expense | 2,588.76 | 2,818.01 | 108.9% | 229.25 |
| Compensation of employees | 437.53 | 439.77 | 100.5% | 2.24 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 539.68 | 613.55 | 113.7% | 73.86 |
| Interest | 376.93 | 488.84 | 129.7% | 111.91 |
| o/w: domestic | 301.62 | 429.52 | 142.4% | 127.9 |
| o/w: foreign | 75.3 | 59.32 | 78.8% | -15.99 |
| Grants | 1,143.59 | 1,194.62 | 104.5% | 51.03 |
| Social benefits | 56.27 | 49.57 | 88.1% | -6.7 |
| Other expense | 34.76 | 31.66 | 91.1% | -3.09 |
| Gross operating balance | 514.06 | -99.29 | -19.3% | -613.35 |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 966.19 | 165.23 | 17.1% | -800.97 |
| Net borrowing (deficit) | -452.13 | -264.51 | __ | __ |
4.1 Revenues and Grants
Total revenues (domestic revenues and grants) amounted to Shs 2,718.72 billion, translating into a Shs 384.10 billion shortfall as both domestic revenue collections and grants performed below their respective targets for the month.
4.1.1 Domestic Revenues
Overall, domestic revenue collections amounted to Shs 2,664.19 billion, representing a 90.8 percent performance against the Shs 2,933.56 billion target for the month. Of the total collections, Shs 2,472.83 billion was tax revenue while Shs 191.37 billion was other revenue (non-tax revenue).
Tax revenue collections were short of the Shs 2,633.00 billion target by Shs 160.17 billion, as all the three major tax heads registered shortfalls during the month. Direct domestic taxes registered a Shs 11.46 billion shortfall on account of lower than planned collections of taxes on interest earned from treasury bills. This more than offset the higher collections received from Pay As You Earn (PAYE) and corporate tax under this category during the month.
Similarly, indirect domestic taxes registered a Shs 73.20 billion shortfall against the Shs 785.31 billion target for the month, as both excise duty and Value Added Tax (VAT) collections during the month were lower than initially anticipated.
Taxes on international trade transactions during the month amounted to Shs 988.83 billion against the Shs 1,064.99 billion target. This performance was mainly on account of lower than planned collections from petroleum duty during the month, as the fuel imports were impacted by the supply chain disruptions associated with the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
4.2 Expenses
Total government expenses in April 2026 amounted to Shs 2,818.01 billion compared to the programmed expenses of Shs 2,588.76 billion, resulting in an overspend of Shs 229.25 billion. The higher-than planned expenses were mainly registered under grants from the Central Government to local governments, tertiary institutions, and other government agencies including the Uganda Airlines. Government also spent more than initially planned on purchase of goods and services as well as on compensation of employees during the month.
4.3 Net Acquisition of Non-Financial Assets
During the month, government spent Shs 165.23 billion on acquisition of non-financial assets which included infrastructure projects like roads and bridges and land for right of way. However, the total amount spent on acquisition of non-financial assets during the month was significantly lower than what had been programmed, mainly on account of slow disbursement of funds for externally financed projects.
5 East African Community Developments
5.1 EAC Inflation18
Annual headline inflation during April 2026, increased across majority of EAC Partner States particularly Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Rwanda but reduced in Burundi. The dominant factor leading to the general increase was the rise in both fuel and transport costs across the region. Headline inflation was highest in Rwanda at 11.5 percent, followed by Burundi at 8.6 percent, Kenya at 5.6 percent, Tanzania at 4.0 percent and Uganda at 3.0 percent. This compared to 7.7 percent, and 10.8 percent, 4.4 percent, 3.2 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively in March 2026.
5.2 EAC Exchange Rates19
Currencies across the East African Community (EAC) recorded mixed movements against the US Dollar in April 2026. The Ugandan Shilling appreciated by 0.4 percent, while the Kenyan Shilling strengthened modestly by 0.1 percent against the US Dollar. The appreciation of the Kenyan Shilling was largely supported by diversified foreign exchange inflows from exports and diaspora remittances, adequate foreign exchange reserves and increased confidence in the economy.
Conversely, the Tanzanian Shilling, Burundian Franc and Rwandan Franc depreciated by 1.1 percent, 0.2 percent, and 0.1 percent, respectively as demand for the US Dollar outpaced its supply during the month.
5.3 Trade Balance with EAC20
During the month of March 2026, Uganda traded at a deficit worth USD 44.33 million with the EAC Partner States compared to a deficit of USD 59.95 million registered the month before. This was on account of a 17.0 percent increase in export receipts which more than offset the 9.2 percent increase in the import bill over the same period. Total exports to the region amounted to USD 314.96 million, while imports amounted to USD 359.30 million during the month.
At country specific level, Uganda traded at surpluses with Burundi, Rwanda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo worth USD 9.48 million, USD 29.05 million, USD 40.35 million and USD 132.09 million respectively. On the other hand, Uganda traded at deficits with Kenya and Tanzania amounting to USD 102.45 million and USD 170.20 million, respectively. These trade deficits are partly attributed to the non-tariff barriers which continue to constrain Uganda’s exports to these two countries.
Compared to the same month last year (March 2025), the trade deficit narrowed from USD 77.00 million, to USD 44.33 million this year as the export earnings grew at a much faster pace than the import bill over this period.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
| Month on Month | Is a way to measure the percentage change in a value from one month to the next. |
| Year on Year | Is a method of comparing data for a specific period (e.g., a month or quarter) with the same period in the previous year. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, lending rates and CIEA has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on external sector is reported with a lag↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary↩︎
April 2026 data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia is not readily available.↩︎
April 2026 data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia is not readily available.↩︎
A PMI reading above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while a reading below 50.0 shows a deterioration↩︎
The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services↩︎
Data on the CIEA has a lag of one month.↩︎
A BTI reading above 50 indicates an improving outlook, while a reading below 50 shows a deteriorating outlook.↩︎
Data on lending rates has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on Credit Extensions has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade have a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade have a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade have a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
April 2026 inflation data not readily available for Somalia, South Sudan and D.R.C↩︎
April 2026 data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
April 2026 trade data for Somalia not readily available↩︎