November 2025
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2025-12-16
1 List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
2 Summary1
Real Sector
Economic activity continued to improve, as reflected by the upward trends in high-frequency indicators such as the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and the Composite Index of Economic activity (CIEA). The PMI increased to 53.8 in November 2025 up from 53.4 recorded the previous month signifying an improvement in business conditions as firms reported a rise in new orders and output.
Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased to 183.50 in October 2025 from 182.40 in September 2025, reflecting an improvement in economic activity.
Perceptions about doing business in Uganda remained positive as reflected by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which stood at 57.20 in November 2025 well above the 50-mark threshold. Optimism was mainly expressed in the manufacturing, wholesale trade and services sectors.
Annual headline inflation declined further in November 2025 to 3.1 percent, from 3.4 percent recorded in October. This was attributed to a reduction in annual food crop inflation(from 6.1 percent in October to 4.0 percent in November) due to an increase in food supply, coupled with a slight reduction in annual core inflation(from 3.4 percent in October to 3.2 percent in November). In contrast, Annual Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) Inflation increased to 0.6% in November from 0.1% registered in October 2025.
Financial Sector
The Ugandan Shilling depreciated by 3.2 percent against the US Dollar, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,575.14/USD in November 2025 compared to Shs 3,463.9/USD in October 2025. The weakening of the shilling was on account of strong dollar demand from the corporate sector that outpaced dollar supply.
With inflation projected to remain within the medium target of 5 percent, the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC) maintained the Central Bank Rate at 9.75 percent in November 2025.
The weighted average lending rates for the Shilling-denominated credit slightly increased from 18.45 percent in September 2025 to 19.71 percent in October 2025. This was partly driven by higher rates applied to new lending in key sectors particularly manufacturing and trade. Similarly, lending rates for foreign currency denominated credit increased to 8.24 percent in October 2025, from 8.15 percent in September 2025.
The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit (PSC) grew by 0.3 percent from Shs 24,287.42 billion in September 2025 to Shs 24,353.16 billion in October 2025. The rise in the stock of credit was majorly driven by an increment in Shilling denominated credit which grew by 0.47 percent in the period under review.
Government raised Shs 2,045.84 billion from three auctions of Government securities on the domestic primary market in November 2025. A total of Shs 605.40 billion was raised from T-Bills while Shs 1,440.4 billion was raised from T-Bonds.
Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills registered mixed movements in November 2025. Yields on the 91-day and 364-day Treasury Bills declined to 11.5 percent and 14.9 percent in November 2025 down from 11.7 percent and 15.0 percent in October 2025, respectively. The yield on the 182-day tenor slightly edged upwards to 13.7 percent in November 2025 from 13.1 percent recorded the previous month.
External Sector2
On a year-to-year basis, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit with the rest of the world declined by 70.4 percent, from USD 251.56 million in October 2024 to USD 74.46 million in October 2025. This improvement was driven by an increase in exports by USD 726.84 million, which more than offset the USD 549.74 million increase in imports over the period.
Uganda’s merchandise exports nearly doubled (94.4 percent) rising from USD 769.62 million in October 2024 to USD 1,496.45 million in October 2025. This growth was mainly attributed to higher export earnings from coffee, gold, crude oil (from simsim, palm oil and sun flower), industrial products, cocoa beans, flowers, among others.
Uganda’s merchandise imports grew by 53.8 percent from USD 1,021.19 million in October 2024 to USD 1,570.91 million in October 2025. This increase was primarily attributed to higher formal private sector imports reflecting sustained improvements in economic activity. Key private sector imports included mineral products (excluding petroleum), base metals & their products, vegetable and animal products, beverages, fats & oils, among others.
Fiscal Sector
Preliminary data shows that Government’s fiscal operations in the month of November 2025 resulted in a fiscal deficit (net-borrowing) worth Shs 2,865.62 billion. This was higher than the planned deficit of Shs 1,189.83 billion, on account of shortfalls in revenue and higher than programmed expenditure during the month.
Domestic revenue collections amounted to Shs 2,710.82 billion which was Shs 415.80 billion short of the target for the month of Shs 3,126.62 billion. Both tax and non-tax revenues were short of their respective targets for November 2025. On the other hand, total government expenditure (both expenses plus net acquisition of non-financial assets) amounted to Shs 5,403.22 billion against the programmed amount of Shs 4,593.32 billion for November 2025.
East African Community3
Save for Somalia, inflation across all EAC partner states declined. In particular, Annual Headline inflation eased for Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Rwanda, falling to 3.1 percent, 3.4 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4.1 percent, respectively, down from 3.4 percent, 3.5 percent, 4.6 percent, and 5.1 percent recorded in October 2025. For the case of Burundi, inflation declined in October 2025 to 27.2 percent, down from 29.7 percent the previous month. Inflation for Somalia remained unchanged at 3.9 percent in October, the same rate recorded the previous month.
In November 2025, currencies within the East African Community (EAC) indicated mixed trends in the performance against the United States Dollar. The Ugandan Shilling, Rwandan Franc and Kenyan Shilling depreciated by 3.2 percent, 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. In contrast, the Burundian Franc and Tanzanian Shilling appreciated by 0.03 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively over the month.
Uganda’s trade deficit with the EAC Partner States widened in October 2025, to USD 196.29 million from USD 103.08 million in September 2025. The wider deficit was partly explained by a marginal decline in export receipts from the region, coupled with a rise in imports from the region. Year on year, Uganda’ trade position with the region shifted from a surplus to a deficit mainly due to an expansion in the import bill, which rose from USD 222.10 million in October 2024 to USD 458.65 million in October 2025. Export earnings marginally increased from USD 230.36 million to USD 262.36 million over the same period.
3 Real Sector Developments
3.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation declined further to 3.1 percent in November 2025, down from 3.4 percent in October 2025 as reflected in Figure 1. The decline was mainly due to a notable drop in Annual Foods and related items inflation (to 4.0 percent in November 2025 from 6.1 percent in October 2025) alongside a modest reduction in Annual Core inflation (to 3.2 percent from 3.4 percent over the same period).
Annual core inflation declined to 3.2 percent in the year ending November 2025 compared to 3.4 percent recorded in October 2025 on account of a decline in Annual inflation for Services and Annual Other Goods inflation. The fall in services inflation was particularly notable, with categories such as passenger transport recording annual inflation rates of -2.0 percent in November 2025, compared to -1.1 percent in the previous month.
Other goods within the Core basket that contributed to the decline include; maize flour (7.8 percent, down from 13.2 percent in October), sugar (4.4 percent, down from 8.9 percent), beef (10.6 percent, down from 11.6 percent), fresh tilapia (4.5 percent, down from 9.7 percent), and refined oil (3.4 percent down from 4.4 percent).
Additionally, there was a continued reduction in prices of goods such as groundnuts, chicken off layer, and paint which fell by -18.1 percent, -12.2 percent and -3.0 percent in November 2025 compared to -12.3 percent, -3.9 percent and -2.2 percent in October 2025.
Just like Core Inflation, Annual food crop and related items inflation declined further in November 2025 to 4.0 percent down from 6.1 percent in October 2025. This was attributed to a reduction in prices of food items such as papayas, mangoes, oranges, green cabbages, pumpkins, round onions, and cowpeas by -11.8 percent, -2.2 percent, -12.5 percent, -0.6 percent, -6.0 percent, -8.2 percent, -1.1 percent in November 2025 compared to 7.2 percent, 14.8 percent, -7.1 percent,1.3 percent,1.0 percent, -4.5 percent, and 0.3 percent in October 2025 respectively.
There was also a slowdown in the rate at which prices increased for matooke (8.1 percent in November 2025 compared to 14.6 percent in October 2025), sweet potatoes (12.9 percent in November 2025 compared to 18.9 percent in October 2025), tomatoes (8.0 percent in November 2025 compared to 18.8 percent in October 2025) and pineapple (7.2 percent in November 2025 compared to 23.2 percent in October 2025).
On the other hand, Annual Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) inflation increased to 0.6 percent in November 2025 up from 0.1 percent the previous month. This was primarily driven by higher firewood and diesel prices, which rose by 1.2 percent and 0.2 percent in November from -3.2 percent and -1.0 percent during the previous month. However, petrol prices fell although at a slower pace, by -0.4 percent in November compared to -2.0 percent in October 2025.
3.2 Economic Activity
The high frequency indicators of both economic activity and sentiments continued to indicate positive economic performance and perceptions about the economy.
The Composite Indicator of Economic Activity (CIEA) continued to improve for the third consecutive month, registering a growth rate of 0.6 percent in October 2025. The index rose to 183.50 in October, up from 182.40 in September, signalling sustained economic momentum.
Similar to the trend observed for the CIEA, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved slightly to 53.8 (above 50) in November, up from 53.4 in October 2025 further reflecting an improvement in business conditions across the Ugandan private sector. Output among Ugandan businesses continued to rise with consistent month-on-month growth observed across all sectors4 since February 2025. Firms attributed the increase in output to stronger demand and a renewed rise in new orders. Nevertheless, input costs continued to rise during the month driven by higher utility(electricity), and fuel costs.
3.2.1 Business Perceptions
Private sector sentiments about doing business in the Ugandan economy as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI), were positive in November 2025. The BTI was recorded at 57.2 (above the 50-mark threshold) in November 2025 with the highest optimism recorded in the manufacturing, wholesale trade and services sectors. Assessment of the key indicators shows that investors expressed optimism regarding the financial and business situation mainly driven by strong consumer demand.
However, the BTI registered a slight decline from 58.10 registered in October 2025 to 57.2 as respondents were pessimistic about business conditions particularly in the agriculture and construction sector.
4 Financial Sector Developments
4.1 Exchange Rate Movements
In November 2025, the Ugandan Shilling depreciated by 3.2 percent against the US Dollar, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,575.14/USD compared to Shs 3,463.9/USD in October 2025. This depreciation of the shilling was mainly on account of strong dollar demand from the corporate sector that outpaced dollar supply.
Similarly, the Shilling depreciated against the British Pound Sterling and the Euro, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 4696.64/GBP and Shs 4,131.42/Euro from Shs 4625.85/GBP and 4,028.56/Euro respectively over the same period.
4.2 Interest Rate Movements
With inflation projected to remain within the medium target of 5 percent, the Monetary Policy Committee(MPC) maintained the Central Bank Rate at 9.75 percent in November 2025.
4.2.1 Lending Rates5
In October 2025, the average weighted lending rates for both shilling and foreign currency denominated credit edged upwards. The weighted average lending rates for Shilling denominated credit increased to 19.71 percent in October 2025, from 18.45 percent in September 2025. The uptick was partly due to higher rates applied to new lending in key sectors particularly Manufacturing and Trade sectors.
Similarly, lending rates for foreign currency denominated credit followed the same trend increasing to 8.24 percent, from 8.15 percent over the same period.
4.3 Government Securities
In November 2025, Shs 2,045.84 billion was raised from three auctions of Government securities on the domestic primary market. A total of Shs 605.40 billion was raised from T-Bills while Shs 1,440.4 billion was raised from T-Bonds. Of the total amount raised, Shs 376.35 billion was used for refinancing of maturing securities while Shs 1,669.49 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2024/25 | 23,520.3 | 12,117 | 11,403.3 |
| November 2025 | 2,045.8 | 1,669.5 | 376.4 |
| FY 2025/26 to date | 12,200.1 | 8,353.2 | 3,846.9 |
4.4 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
During the period under review (November 2025), yields (interest rates) on the 91-day and 364-day Treasury Bills declined to 11.5 percent and 14.9 percent in November 2025 down from 11.7 percent and 15.0 percent in October 2025 respectively. The yield on the 182-day tenor slightly edged upwards to 13.7 percent in November 2025 from 13.1 percent recorded the previous month.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio recorded at 1.66 in November 2025.
4.4.1 Yields on Treasury Bonds
Government re-opened6 2-year, 5-year, and 15-year and 25-year tenor bonds on the primary securities market. With the exception of the 2-year tenor, yields edged upwards for all bonds in comparison to the yields recorded in the previous auction of similar bonds.
Specifically, yields for the 5-year, 15-year and 25-year increased to 16.25 percent, 17.75 percent and 17.95 percent from 16.2 percent, 17.65 percent and 16.0 percent, respectively. The continued upward movement in T-Bond yields reflects the Government’s preference for issuing longer-term securities, and investors’ corresponding demand for higher returns to compensate for the extended maturities.
In contrast, the yield for the 2-year tenor bond remained unchanged at 15.75 percent.
4.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit7
The stock of outstanding private sector credit rose slightly to Shs. 24,353.16 billion in October 2025, up from Shs. 24,287.42 billion in September 2025, representing a modest growth rate of 0.3 percent. This growth was mainly under shilling-denominated credit which grew from Shs. 17,481.48 billion in September 2025 to Shs. 17,562.79 billion in October 2025.
In contrast, foreign currency denominated credit declined over the same period, falling from Shs. 6,805.94 billion in September 2025 to Shs. 6,790.37 billion in October 2025.
4.6 Credit Extensions8
The value of credit approved for disbursement in October 2025 totaled Shs 1,930.3 billion out of total applications valued at Shs 2,515.60 billion, resulting in an approval rate of 76.7 percent slightly higher than 75.5 percent rate approved in September. Consistent with the trend observed since the onset of the FY 2025/26, key sectors such as Personal & Household loans, Trade, Building Construction & Real estate and Agriculture continued to dominate credit allocations during the period under review.
In particular, Personal and Household loans continued to receive the largest share of credit approved, accounting for 24.7 percent (Shs 477.5 billion) of the total in October. This was followed by Trade at 16.2 percent (Shs 312.8 billion), Building, Construction & Real Estate at 12.8 percent (Shs 247.9 billion) and Business, Community, Social and Other Services at 11.9 percent (Shs 229.7 billion). Other major recipients of credit included Agriculture (11.8 percent) and Manufacturing (11.3 percent).
5 External Sector Developments
5.1 Merchandise Trade Balance9
Compared to October 2024, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit with the rest of the world fell by 70.4 percent, narrowing from USD 251.56 million to USD 74.46 million in October 2025. This improvement was driven by an increase in exports by USD 726.84 million, which more than offset the USD 549.74 million increase in imports over the period. Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, the trade deficit narrowed by 85.1 percent between September 2025 and October 2025, on account of a USD 536.56 million spike in export earnings vis-à-vis a USD 110.72 million rise in the import bill.
5.2 Merchandise Exports10
A year-on-year evaluation reveals that Uganda’s merchandise exports nearly doubled (94.4 percent), rising from USD 769.62 million in October 2024 to USD 1,496.45 million October 2025. This growth was mainly attributed to higher export earnings from coffee, gold, crude oil (from simsim, palm oil and sun flower), industrial products, cocoa beans, flowers, among others.
Uganda’s earnings from coffee exports increased by USD 46.06 million (33.1 percent), rising from USD 139.05 million in October 2024 to USD 185.10 million in October 2025. This increase in earnings was attributed to higher export volumes amidst declining global coffee prices. The export volumes increased by 37.7 percent, rising to 680,000 sixty-kilogram bags from 500,000 sixty-kilogram bags, mainly on account of higher production from harvests in the Central and Eastern regions. Contrarily, export earnings for coffee declined on a monthly basis, on account of a fall in the quantity of coffee exports from September 2025 to October 2025, which more than offset the marginal increase in the unit price of coffee. Italy and Germany were the major destinations for our coffee exports in October 2025.
Uganda’s export earnings rose by 55.9 percent to USD 1,496.45 million in October 2025 from USD 959.89 million in September 2025. This growth was mainly driven by higher earnings from gold, cocoa beans, crude oil (from simsim, palm oil and sun flower), tobacco, among others. Gold and coffee constitute 76.8 percent of Uganda’s exports, underscoring the need for diversification of the export basket.
| Product | Oct-2024 | Sep-2025 | Oct-2025 |
Oct-2025 vs Oct-2024 % Change |
Oct-2025 vs Sep-2025 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 769.62 | 959.89 | 1,496.45 | 94.44 | 55.9 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 139.05 | 218.55 | 185.1 | 33.12 | -15.31 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.5 | 0.84 | 0.68 | 37.69 | -19.04 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 4.66 | 4.31 | 4.51 | -3.32 | 4.61 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 574.91 | 663.94 | 1,239.05 | 115.52 | 86.62 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 317.76 | 410.99 | 964.6 | 203.56 | 134.7 |
| Cocoa Beans | 22.55 | 15.6 | 26.15 | 15.98 | 67.67 |
| Cotton | 0.04 | 0.54 | 0 | -99.04 | -99.93 |
| Tea | 4.49 | 3.51 | 4.08 | -9.17 | 16.21 |
| Tobacco | 7.17 | 1.21 | 4.49 | -37.45 | 269.89 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 14.43 | 11.05 | 13.66 | -5.29 | 23.67 |
| Simsim | 1.97 | 1.8 | 0.92 | -52.98 | -48.76 |
| Maize | 10.48 | 7.11 | 4.74 | -54.79 | -33.41 |
| Beans | 6.27 | 5.81 | 5.27 | -15.84 | -9.23 |
| Flowers | 4.56 | 3.49 | 5.4 | 18.5 | 54.64 |
| Oil Re-Exports | 12.14 | 11.45 | 9.77 | -19.54 | -14.64 |
| Base Metals & Products | 21.26 | 17.9 | 20.23 | -4.86 | 13.04 |
| Total Informal Cross-Border Trade (ICBT) Exports | 55.66 | 77.4 | 72.3 | 29.91 | -6.59 |
| Sugar | 15.04 | 16.03 | 13.67 | -9.08 | -14.73 |
| Fruits & Vegetables | 7.69 | 7.49 | 7.63 | -0.67 | 1.9 |
| Crude Oil (Excl Petroleum Products) | 6.24 | 15.46 | 18.48 | 196.19 | 19.55 |
| Cement | 6.45 | 7.21 | 7.97 | 23.57 | 10.49 |
| Plastic Products | 5.05 | 4.49 | 4.53 | -10.38 | 0.81 |
| Electricity | 7.4 | 6.61 | 6.61 | -10.72 | -0.01 |
| Beer | 2.6 | 4 | 4.56 | 75.42 | 13.99 |
| ICBT Exports | 3.44 | 4.45 | 4.03 | 17.18 | -9.34 |
5.3 Destination of Exports11
In October 2025, the Middle East remained Uganda’s leading export destination, accounting for 49.1 percent of Uganda’s exports. At a country specific level, the United Arab Emirates dominated, receiving 98.8 percent of our exports to the region. Other key export destinations included Asia (19.8 percent), the East African Community (17.5 percent) and the European Union (8.8 percent).
5.4 Merchandise Imports12
In comparison with the same month the previous year, Uganda’s merchandise imports grew by 53.8 percent from USD 1,021.19 million in October 2024 to USD 1,570.91 million in October 2025. This increase was primarily attributed to higher formal private sector imports, which more than offset the decline in Government imports. The key private sector imports include mineral products (excluding petroleum), base metals & their products, vegetable and animal products, beverages, fats & oils, among others.
Similarly, a month-on-month analysis shows that merchandise imports rose by 7.6 percent rising from USD 1,460.19 million in September 2025 to USD 1,570.91 million in October 2025, due to higher non-oil, formal private sector imports. These include mineral products (excluding petroleum), vegetable and animal products, beverages, fats & oils and miscellaneous manufactured articles among others.
5.5 Origin of Imports
In October 2025, Asia remained Uganda’s major source of imports, accounting for 30.0 percent of the total import bill. Within Asia, China, India and Japan were the dominant sources of our imports, accounting for 50.6 percent, 22.3 percent and 8.1 percent of our imports, respectively. Other notable sources of our imports were the East African Community, Rest of Africa and the Middle East, accounting for 29.2 percent, 23.8 percent and 9.7 percent respectively.
5.6 Trade Balance by Region
In October 2025, Uganda recorded trade surpluses with the Middle East, the European Union and the Rest of Europe amounting to USD 582.47 million, USD 61.18 million and USD 4.02 million respectively. However, trade deficits were registered with Asia, the East African Community and the Rest of Africa worth (USD 175.41 million), (USD 196.29 million) and (USD 331.93 million) accordingly.
| Region | Oct 2024 | Sep 2025 | Oct 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 49.91 | 38.79 | 61.18 |
| Rest of Europe | -3 | -0.59 | 4.02 |
| Middle East | 161.19 | 150.34 | 582.47 |
| Asia | -341.95 | -294.18 | -175.41 |
| EAC | 8.26 | -103.08 | -196.29 |
| Rest of Africa | -114.91 | -275.4 | -331.93 |
| Other Countries | -11.06 | -16.19 | -18.51 |
6 Fiscal Developments13
Preliminary data shows that Government’s fiscal operations in the month of November 2025 resulted in a fiscal deficit (net-borrowing) worth Shs 2,865.62 billion. This was higher than the planned deficit of Shs 1,189.83 billion, on account of shortfalls in revenue and higher than programmed expenditure during the month.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues (Including grants) | 3,403.48 | 2,749.11 | 80.8% | -654.37 |
| Domestic Revenue | 3,126.62 | 2,710.82 | 86.7% | -415.8 |
| Taxes | 2,830.12 | 2,537.75 | 89.7% | -292.37 |
| Other revenue (Non-tax revenue) | 296.49 | 173.07 | 58.4% | -123.42 |
| Grants | 276.87 | 38.29 | 13.8% | -238.58 |
| Project support | 276.87 | 38.29 | 13.8% | -238.58 |
| Expense | 3,811.66 | 4,614.4 | 121.1% | 802.75 |
| Compensation of employees | 546.54 | 508.01 | 92.9% | -38.53 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 1,175.77 | 1,234.55 | 105.0% | 58.78 |
| Interest | 1,229.93 | 1,229.93 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: domestic | 1,113.06 | 1,113.06 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: foreign | 116.88 | 116.88 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Grants | 661.95 | 1,492.96 | 225.5% | 831.01 |
| Social benefits | 102.89 | 63.84 | 62.0% | -39.05 |
| Other expense | 94.57 | 85.11 | 90.0% | -9.46 |
| Gross operating balance | -408.17 | -2,076.81 | 508.8% | -1,668.64 |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 781.65 | 788.81 | 100.9% | 7.16 |
| Net lending/borrowing (surplus/deficit) | -1,189.82 | -2,865.62 | __ | __ |
6.1 Revenues and Grants
Tax collections in the month of November 2025 amounted to Shs 2,537.75 billion, thereby posting a shortfall of Shs 292.37 billion as collections from all the major tax heads (direct, indirect and international trade taxes) were lower than anticipated during the month.
6.1.1 Domestic Revenues
Direct domestic taxes amounted to Shs 758.58 billion, an 89.4 percent performance rate against the Shs 848.32 billion target for the month. The shortfall in direct domestic taxes was mainly driven by lower collections from PAYE, Corporate tax and Withholding tax during the month.
Similarly, indirect domestic taxes posted a shortfall of Shs 25.64 billion, amounting to Shs 659.83 billion against the Shs 685.47 target. This was on account of lower collections from both Excise duty and VAT on goods such as sugar, spirits, soft drinks, electricity and phone talk time among others during the month.
Taxes on international trade amounted to Shs 968.93 billion, falling short of the month’s target by Shs 96.35 billion. This was mainly on account of lower collections from import duty and VAT on imports while Other Revenue collections (Non-Tax Revenue) amounted to Shs 173.07 billion, falling short of the month’s target by Shs 123.42 billion.
Cumulatively this financial year (up to November 2025), domestic revenue collections have amounted to Shs 12,774.69 billion, a 95.0 percent performance rate against the Shs 13,448.41 billion cumulative target. In comparison to the same period of last financial year (FY 2024/25), domestic revenue collections registered growth of 9.4 percent.
6.1.2 Grants
Similarly, grants to other government agencies amounted to Shs 1,4922.96 billion, surpassing the target for the month by Shs 831.01 billion, on account of payments made towards PDM Saccos, and maintenance of district, urban and community access roads during the month.
6.2 Expenses
Government expense in November 2025 amounted to Shs 4,614.41 billion, which was higher than the programmed Shs 3,811.66 billion by Shs 802.74 billion. This performance was mainly attributed to higher than planned spending on the purchase of goods & services as well as grants, particularly to local governments during the month.
Purchase of goods and services amounted to Shs 1,234.55 billion, exceeding the plan by Shs 58.78 billion during the month. This was mainly attributed to payments made to the security sector and the Electoral Commission for election management and the Ministry of Works and Transport for maintenance of national roads.
6.2.1 Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Spending on acquisition of non-financial assets amounted to Shs 788.81 billion, which is Shs 7.16 billion higher than the programmed amount of Shs 781.65 billion for the month. This was mainly on account of payments made towards land acquisition for projects and improvement of roads and bridges during the month.
7 East African Community Developments
7.1 EAC Inflation14
Annual headline inflation eased across all EAC partner states over the period under review. In particular, inflation declined for Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, and Rwanda to 3.1 percent, 3.4 percent, 4.5 percent, and 4.1 percent in November 2025, down from 3.4 percent, 3.5 percent, 4.6 percent, and 5.1 percent recorded in October 2025 respectively.
In Tanzania, the slight moderation in inflation was largely driven by a decline in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, with inflation for this category easing to 6.6 percent in November from 7.4 percent in October.
In Kenya, the decline in inflation reflected lower prices for selected commodities, most notably electricity (from KShs 5,713.16 to KShs 5,676.22), gas/LPG (from KShs 3,147.66 to KShs 3,132.93), and key food items such as beans (from KShs 183.24/kg to KShs 180.69/kg).
For Rwanda, the downward trend was mainly attributable to a sharper decline in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages particularly vegetables, whose prices fell by -10.2 percent in November compared to -7.0 percent in October.
Burundi’s annual headline inflation, while still elevated, eased slightly to 27.2 percent in October 2025, down from 29.7 percent in September. In Somalia, inflation remained unchanged at 3.9 percent in October, the same rate recorded the previous month.
7.2 EAC Exchange Rates 15 16
In November 2025, currencies within the East African Community (EAC) exhibited divergent trends against the United States Dollar. The Ugandan Shilling, Rwandan Franc and Kenyan Shilling depreciated by 3.2 percent, 0.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the Burundian Franc and Tanzanian Shilling remained broadly stable, registering slight appreciations of 0.03 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively over the month.
7.3 Trade Balance with EAC17
During the month of October 2025, Uganda’s trade deficit with the EAC partner states widened from USD 103.08 million in September 2025 to USD 196.29 million in October 2025. This was as a result of the sharp rise in the import bill versus the marginal increase in export earnings from the region. Imports rose by USD 99.42 million whereas exports rose by USD 6.21 million, bringing imports to USD 458.65 million and exports to USD 262.36 million, culminating in a widening of the deficit.
At a country specific level, Uganda traded at a surplus with the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi amounting to USD 112.42 million, USD 41.47 million, USD 25.11 million and USD 6.12 million. However, deficits were recorded with Kenya and Tanzania worth (USD 81.62 million) and (USD 299.80 million) respectively.
Year on year, Uganda’s trade balance with the region fell from a surplus to a deficit, with a value of USD 8.26 million recorded in October 2024 against a deficit of USD 196.29 million in October 2025. The large deterioration was driven by a sharp increase in the import bill, from USD 222.10 million in October 2024 to USD 458.65 million in October 2025 versus the marginal increase in export earnings from USD 230.36 million to USD 262.36 million over the same period. This is on account of the spike in imports from Tanzania and Kenya, which have more than doubled (111.0 percent and 105.6 percent respectively) vis-à-vis the exports to the countries mentioned which have declined (38.4 percent and 10.0 percent respectively) over the same period.
8 Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
| Month on Month | Is a way to measure the percentage change in a value from one month to the next. |
| Year on Year | Is a method of comparing data for a specific period (e.g., a month or quarter) with the same period in the previous year. |
9 Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Some Data for South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts using previously issued bond instruments, but with a different issue date and different purchase price↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
November 2025 inflation Data for South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Exchange rate data for Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available in November 2025.↩︎
Negative figures show an appreciation while positive figures show a depreciation against the US Dollar↩︎
Data on trade with the EAC has a one-month lag.↩︎