List of Acronyms

Acronym		Expansion
B.Franc		Burundian Franc
BOU		Bank of Uganda
BTI		Business Tendency Index
CBR		Central Bank Rate
CIEA		Composite Index of Economic Activity
EAC		East African Community
EFU		Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FX		Foreign Exchange
FY		Financial Year
GBP		British Pound Sterling
ICBT		Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs		Kenyan Shilling
MDAs		Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED		Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGOs		Non-Governmental Organisations
PAYE		Pay as You Earn
PMI		Purchasing Managers’ Index
PSC		Private Sector Credit
R.Franc		Rwandan Franc
T-Bills		Treasury Bills
T-Bonds		Treasury Bonds
TShs		Tanzanian Shilling
UBOS		Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs / Shs		Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD		United States Dollar
VAT		Value Added Tax
YTM		Yield to Maturity

Summary¹

Real Sector

Revised estimates from UBOS show that Uganda’s economy grew by 6.3 percent in FY2024/25, up from 6.1 percent the previous financial year. The major drivers of this growth were increased aggregate demand, investments and exports as reflected in growth of agriculture, industry and services sectors of the economy. GDP growth was also supported by government programs like the Parish Development Model (PDM), Emyooga and other public investments, as well as favorable weather conditions and a stable macroeconomic environment that boosted production and private sector productivity.
This economic expansion is poised to continue this financial year (FY2025/26) as depicted by the high frequency indicators of economic activity which showed further improvement in the level of economic activity in the months leading to September 2025. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 54.0 in September, above the 50-mark threshold signaling improvements in business conditions and investor confidence in the private sector, compared to the previous month.
Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) grew by 0.06 percent to 179.45 in August 2025, reflecting increased economic activity compared to the previous month. Sentiments about doing business also remain positive, with the Business Tendency Index (BTI) posting 59.20 in September 2025, an improvement from the 57.0 recorded in August 2025 and thereby indicating optimism amongst investors regarding business conditions over the next 3 months.
Annual headline inflation in September 2025 increased to 4.0 percent, from 3.8 percent recorded in August 2025. This was due to a pick-up in food crops and related items inflation as there was a notable increase in price for tomatoes, onions, pineapples and mangoes, among others during the month.

Financial Sector

During the month of September 2025, the Ugandan shilling appreciated by 1.8 percent against the US dollar to Shs 3,507.79 per USD from Shs 3,573.13 per USD in August 2025. The continued strengthening of the shilling is partly supported by offshore investor activity and sustained coffee and mineral export inflows, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as well as a boost in remittances from the Ugandan diaspora.
The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained at 9.75 percent in September 2025. This rate was deemed appropriate to keep inflation within the medium-term target of 5 percent while supporting economic growth.
In August 2025, shilling-denominated lending rates fell to a weighted average of 18.46 percent from a weighted average of 19.65 percent in July 2025, while lending rates for foreign currency-denominated credit remained largely unchanged at around a weighted average of 8.34 percent.
In August 2025, the stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit (PSC) rose by 1.1 percent to Shs 24,048.23 billion from Shs 23,785.74 billion in the previous month, mainly driven by growth in shilling-denominated credit. Year-on-year, PSC increased by 7.9 percent, reflecting stronger credit demand amid improving levels of economic activity.
In September 2025, the government raised Shs 1,956.52 billion through two T-Bill and one T-Bond auctions. Shs 645.32 billion was raised from T-Bills while T-Bonds raised Shs 1,311.20 billion. Of the total amount raised, Shs 978.80 billion was allocated to budget financing, while Shs 977.72 billion was used to refinance maturing securities.
In September 2025, yields on the 91-day and 182-day Treasury Bills declined to 11.2 percent and 13.2 percent from 11.5 percent and 13.5 percent in August, respectively, while the 364- day bill yield remained unchanged at 15.3 percent. All Treasury bill auctions were oversubscribed, with an average bid-to-cover ratio of 1.64.
On the Treasury Bond market, government reopened 3-year, 10-year, and 20-year tenors, with yields rising to 16.0 percent, 17.15 percent, and 17.95 percent from 15.55 percent, 17.10 percent, and 17.90 percent respectively.

External Sector²

Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 336.16 million in August 2025, from USD 197.64 million in the same month last year (August 2024). This was due to a faster growth in import bill, which more than offset the growth in export receipts over the same period. Similarly, compared to July 2025, the trade deficit widened from USD 42.29 million to USD 336.16 million on account of a decline in export earnings, which was exacerbated by the rise in the import bill during the month.
Compared to July 2025, Uganda’s export receipts declined by 15.4 percent, falling from USD 1,248.04 million, mainly due to lower earnings from coffee, cocoa beans, tea, flowers, and base metals. Earnings from coffee exports dropped by 18.7 percent to USD 202.75 million, as a result of a decline in both the export volumes and the price of Ugandan Coffee between the two months.
The value of merchandise imports increased by 7.9 percent in to USD 1,392.53 million in August 2025, rising from USD 1,290.33 million in July 2025. This was largely on account of higher formal private sector imports such as electricity, animal and vegetable products, beverages, fats and oils, petroleum products, wood, and base metals among others during the month.

Fiscal Sector

Preliminary data indicates that Government operations in September 2025 resulted in a net borrowing of Shs 968.52 billion, which was higher than the programmed deficit of Shs. 569.95 billion for the month. This was mainly on account of shortfalls in revenue and grants during the month.
Total revenues amounted to Shs 2,616.10 billion in September 2025 against the target of Shs 2,977.80 billion for the month, resulting in a shortfall of Shs 361.70 billion. This under performance was primarily due to lower-than-expected collections from taxes, non-tax revenues, and less than programmed grant disbursements.
Total government expense amounted to Shs 3,123.53 billion, which was 0.3 percent higher than the programmed Shs 3,115.40 billion for the month. The higher outturn was mainly attributed to increased spending on the purchase of goods and services, as MDAs finalized the implementation of activities under their Quarter One work plan.
Government spent a total of Shs 461.10 billion on the acquisition of non-financial assets, which was Shs 28.75 billion higher than the projected Shs 432.35 billion for the month.

East African Community³

Annual headline inflation across EAC partner states remained largely stable, with marginal movements in September 2025. Uganda and Kenya recorded modest increases to 4.0 percent and 4.6 percent from 3.8 percent and 4.5 percent in August 2025, respectively, driven by higher food and non-alcoholic beverage prices. In contrast, Rwanda’s inflation eased to 6.2 percent from 6.4 percent due to lower prices in food, housing, and utilities, while Tanzania’s rate remained unchanged at 3.4 percent.
In September 2025, the Ugandan and Tanzanian Shillings appreciated by 2.1 percent and 1.0 percent against the US Dollar respectively, supported by increased offshore investor activity and strong Dollar inflows from coffee and mineral exports. In contrast, the Rwandan and Burundian Francs weakened slightly by 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent respectively, due to higher dollar demand. The Kenyan Shilling remained unchanged at Shs 129.24/USD during the month.
During the month of August 2025, Uganda’s trade deficit with EAC partner states widened to USD 156.71 million from USD 92.34 million in July 2025. This was mainly due to a sharp fall in exports that outweighed the slight decline in imports. Regional exports dropped by 21.1 percent to USD 248.39 million, driven largely by a USD 30.54 million decline in exports to Kenya. Imports from the region fell marginally by 0.5 percent to USD 405.01 million, with lower imports from Tanzania partly offset by higher imports from Kenya.

Real Sector Developments

Growth

Revised estimates by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) show that Uganda’s economy expanded by 6.3 percent in FY2024/25, compared to 6.1 percent in FY2023/24. In nominal terms, the size of the economy increased to Shs 227,875 billion from Shs 203,708 billion recorded in the previous financial year.

This growth was mainly driven by increased aggregate demand, investment and exports as reflected in growth of the agriculture, industry and services sectors of the economy. GDP growth was also supported by Government programs like the Parish Development Model (PDM), Emyooga and other public investments, as well as favorable weather conditions and a stable macroeconomic environment that boosted production and private sector productivity.

On a sectoral basis, the services sector remained the main driver of growth, accounting for 42.1 percent of the overall expansion. This was followed by the agricultural and industrial sectors contributing 26.1 percent and 24.3 percent respectively, during the year.

Inflation

Annual headline inflation in the year ended September 2025 rose to 4.0 percent, up from 3.8 percent recorded in the year ended August 2025. This was mainly on account of a pickup in Food crop and related items inflation which increased to 7.4 percent compared to 3.0 percent in August 2025.

This increase was mainly driven by higher rates of prices increases for food items such as tomatoes, fresh unskimmed milk, onions, ground nuts, avocadoes, mangoes and pineapples among others during the month.

On the other hand, annual core inflation in the year ended September 2025 eased slightly to 4.0 percent, compared to 4.1 percent in the previous month. This moderation was largely driven by the slowdown in inflation for items such as public transport fares (Taxis and buses), purified Waragi, Mukene and dried Nile perch among others, whose rate of price change saw further declines in September compared to August 2025.

Similarly, Annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities’ inflation decelerated to minus 0.1 percent in September 2025 compared to 1.1 percent registered in August 2025. This was mainly on account of solid fuels such as firewood which registered a decline in prices as well as charcoal which registered a slowdown in price increases.

Economic Activity

The high frequency indicators of economic activity and business sentiments show improvements in overall economic performance since the start of this financial year.

The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) posted a 0.06 percent growth to 179.45 In August 2025 from 179.34 in July 2025, reflecting a steady momentum in the level of economic activity. This is further reinforced by improvements in the Business Tendency Index (BTI) and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI).

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for September 2025 was registered at 54.0, up from 53.3 in August 2025. This signaled improvements in the business conditions in the private sector as firms registered increased output and rising new orders arising out of greater customer demand. This trend was observed across all sectors⁴. Additionally, firms also employed more workers in a bid to sustain the required output to meet the increased demand.

Business Perceptions

Sentiments about doing business in the economy remained positive during September 2025 as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which posted 59.20, remaining above the 50-no change⁵ mark during the month. This optimism amongst business people and investors was mainly influenced by improved demand conditions.

At sector level, all sectors⁶ registered positive sentiments. However, optimism was highest in financial services followed by manufacturing, agriculture, and wholesale trade among others during the month.

Financial Sector Developments

Exchange Rate Movements

In September 2025, the Ugandan shilling continued strengthening against the US dollar, appreciating by 1.8 percent. During the month, the Shilling traded at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,507.79 per USD, down from Shs 3,573.13 per USD in August 2025. This performance was largely driven by increased offshore investor participation in the local financial markets and sustained foreign exchange inflows from remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) as well as coffee and mineral exports during the month.

The Ugandan shilling also appreciated by 0.6 percent against both the Euro and the British Pound Sterling during September 2025. The Euro traded at an average mid-rate of Shs 4,107.28 per Euro, down from Shs 4,132.70 per Euro in August, while the Pound Sterling averaged Shs 4,735.11 per GBP compared to Shs 4,764.71 per GBP in the previous month.

Interest Rate Movements

The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 9.75 percent in September 2025. This level was deemed adequate to maintain Core inflation within Bank of Uganda’s medium-term target of 5 percent, while supporting economic growth and driving socio-economic transformation.

Lending Rates⁷

In August 2025, shilling-denominated lending rates declined to a weighted average of 18.46 percent, down from 19.65 percent in July 2025. On the other hand, lending rates for the foreign currency denominated credit averaged at 8.34 percent in August 2025 compared to a weighted average of 8.35 percent in July 2025.

Government Securities

Government raised Shs 1,956.52 billion from 2 T-Bill and 1 T-Bond auctions in September 2025. Of the total amount raised, Shs 645.32 billion was raised from T-Bills while Shs 1,311.2 billion was raised from T-Bonds. A total of Shs 978.80 billion was used for financing items in the budget while a total of Shs 977.72 billion was used for refinancing maturing securities.

Breakdown of Government Securities (UShs Billion) [Source: MOFPED]
	Total Issuances	Financing other items in the Government budget	Refinancing
FY 2024/25	23,520.3	12,117	11,403.3
September 2025	1,956.5	978.8	977.7
FY 2025/26 to date	5,774.6	2,858.6	2,916

Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

Yields (interest rates) on the 91-Day and 182-Day Treasury Bills declined to 11.2 percent and 13.2 percent in September 2025, down from 11.5 percent and 13.5 percent in August 2025, respectively. The yield on the 364-day tenor bill remained unchanged at 15.3 percent during the month.

All auctions for Treasury bills remained oversubscribed, with an average bid to cover ratio recorded at 1.64 in September 2025.

Yields on Treasury Bonds

In September 2025, Government re-opened⁸ the 3-year, 10-year and 20-year bond tenors on the primary securities market. Overall, yields trended upwards in September 2025, rising to 16.0 percent, 17.15 percent and 17.95 percent from 15.55 percent, 17.10 percent and 17.90 percent respectively in the previous issuances. The rise in yields for T-Bonds reflects investors’ demand for higher returns to compensate for longer maturities, amid the Government’s shift towards issuing longer-dated instruments.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit⁹

The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit (PSC) grew by 1.1 percent, rising from Shs 23,785.74 billion in July 2025 to Shs 24,048.23 billion in August 2025. This growth was mainly driven by shilling-denominated credit, which increased by 1.5 percent from Shs 17,084.52 billion to Shs 17,417.05 billion over the same period.

Sector wise, the increase in private sector credit was largely driven by growth in the transport and communication, mining and quarrying, and community services sectors during the month.

Year-on-year, the stock of Private Sector Credit grew by 7.9 percent to Shs 24,048.23 billion in August 2025, up from Shs 22,284.81 billion in August 2024. This growth was mainly driven by higher credit demand amidst improvement in overall economic activity.

Credit Extensions¹⁰

In August 2025, the value of credit approved for disbursement amounted to Shs 1,777.50 billion, out of total applications worth Shs 2,874.39 billion, representing an approval rate of 61.8 percent for the month. This was slightly higher than the approval rate recorded in July 2025, reflecting increased lender confidence and sustained demand for credit, particularly in the personal & household loans, trade, and manufacturing sectors.

As was the case in the previous month, personal and household loans accounted for the largest share of credit disbursements, taking up 27.8 percent (Shs 494.40 billion) of the total credit approved in August 2025. Other major recipients of credit included trade (22.1 percent), agriculture (20.9 percent), business, community, social and other services (11.1 percent), and building, construction and real estate (7.1 percent).

External Sector Developments

Merchandise Trade Balance¹¹

Compared to same month last year (August 2024), Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit widened from USD 197.64 million to USD 336.16 million in August 2025.This was on account of a faster growth in import bill (USD 363.62 million), which more than offset the growth in export receipts (USD 225.10 million) the period under review.

Similarly, comparison between July 2025 and August 2025 shows a significant widening of the trade deficit. Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit increased from USD 42.29 million in July 2025 to USD 336.16 million in August 2025. This followed a combination of declining export receipts coupled with increasing import bill between the two months.

Merchandise Exports¹²

The value of Uganda’s merchandise exports amounted to USD 1,056.37 million in August 2025, a 27.1 percent increase from USD 831.27 million registered in August 2024. This increase was primarily driven by higher earnings from commodities such as gold, tea, cocoa beans, cotton among others during this period.

However, compared to July 2025, export earnings dropped by 15.4 percent from USD 1,248.04 million. This was mainly on account of lower earnings from coffee, cocoa beans, tea, flowers and Base metal exports during the month of August 2025.

The value of Uganda’s coffee exports declined by 18.9 percent from USD 249.87 million in July to USD 202.75 million in August 2025 on account of a decline in both the coffee export volumes and the price of Ugandan Coffee in August 2025.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) [Source: BOU and MOFPED Calc.]
Product	Aug-2024	Jul-2025	Aug-2025	Aug-2025 vs Aug-2024 % Change	Aug-2025 vs Jul-2025 % Change
Total Exports	831.27	1,248.04	1,056.37	27.08	-15.36
Coffee
Value Exported	221.63	249.87	202.75	-8.52	-18.86
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags)	0.84	1	0.86	2.09	-14.21
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee)	4.41	4.18	3.95	-10.4	-5.42
Non-Coffee Formal Exports	559.79	932.83	789.95	41.12	-15.32
of which:
Mineral Products	306.51	584.18	526.33	71.72	-9.9
Cocoa Beans	12.7	27.34	18.25	43.65	-33.24
Cotton	0.48	1.08	1.17	145.3	7.72
Tea	3.03	5.13	3.65	20.52	-28.86
Tobacco	2.81	1.14	2.31	-17.79	102.4
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional)	10.37	13.78	11.91	14.81	-13.58
Simsim	2.35	1.34	1.57	-33.12	17.39
Maize	9.79	6.25	7.8	-20.32	24.86
Beans	3.61	4.31	2.62	-27.55	-39.2
Flowers	6.28	6.35	5.43	-13.56	-14.47
Oil Re-Exports	12.13	13.6	13.8	13.76	1.45
Base Metals & Products	19.79	25.26	20.01	1.09	-20.79
ICBT Exports	49.85	65.34	63.67	27.74	-2.56

Destination of Exports¹³

In August 2025, the Middle East remained Uganda’s largest export market, accounting for 41.6 percent of total merchandise exports, with the United Arab Emirates alone receiving 98.0 percent of exports to the region. The East African Community and the European Union were also key destinations, accounting for 23.5 percent and 13.9 percent of total exports, respectively.

Merchandise Imports¹⁴

Compared to August 2024, Uganda’s merchandise imports rose by 35.3 percent, from USD 1,028.91 million to USD 1,392.53 million in August 2025. The increase was largely driven by formal private sector imports including items like mineral products (excluding petroleum), vegetable products, animal products, beverages, fats and oils, machinery and equipment, vehicles and accessories, as well as base metals and their products.

On a month-on-month basis, merchandise imports rose by 7.9 percent, from USD 1,290.33 million in July 2025. This increase was mainly driven by higher formal private sector imports including electricity, animal and animal products, vegetable products, beverages, fats and oils, petroleum products, wood and wood products, as well as base metals and their products.

Origin of Imports

In August 2025, Asia and the East African Community were Uganda’s main sources of imports, contributing 31.9 percent and 29.1 percent of total imports, respectively. Other significant sources included the rest of Africa (20.1 percent), the Middle East (8.8 percent), and the European Union (7.0 percent).

Trade Balance by Region

In August 2025, Uganda recorded trade surpluses with the Middle East and the European Union, valued at USD 316.93 million and USD 50.09 million, respectively. Conversely, the country ran trade deficits with other major trading blocs, notably Asia (USD 297.97 million), the East African Community (USD 156.71 million), and the rest of Africa (USD 219.44 million).

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) [Source: BOU]
Region	Aug 2024	Jul 2025	Aug 2025
European Union	129.96	113.07	50.09
Rest of Europe	2.36	-12.45	-14.81
Middle East	128.9	428.48	316.93
Asia	-304.02	-238.98	-297.97
EAC	-28.78	-92.34	-156.71
Rest of Africa	-116.32	-227.85	-219.44
Other Countries	-9.74	-12.22	-14.24

Fiscal Developments¹⁵

Preliminary data indicates that government operations in September 2025 resulted in a fiscal deficit (net borrowing) of Shs 968.52 billion, exceeding the programmed deficit of Shs 569.95 billion. The higher-than-programmed deficit was mainly due to shortfalls in domestic revenue collections and grants.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations September 2025 (UShs Billion) [Source: MOFPED]
Shs Billion	Program	Outturn	Performance	Deviation
Revenues	2,977.8	2,616.1	87.9%	-361.7
Taxes	2,475.2	2,370.24	95.8%	-104.96
Grants	236.43	95.18	40.3%	-141.25
Project support	236.43	95.18	40.3%	-141.25
Other revenue (Non-tax revenue)	266.17	150.68	56.6%	-115.49
Expense	3,115.4	3,123.53	100.3%	8.13
Compensation of employees	437.56	407.85	93.2%	-29.71
Wages And Salaries	291.92	291.57	99.9%	-0.35
Allowances	80.04	55.03	68.8%	-25.01
Employers’ social contributions	65.6	61.26	93.4%	-4.34
Purchase of goods and services	502.03	611.13	121.7%	109.1
Interest	1,178.97	1,178.97	100.0%	0
o/w: domestic	1,016.85	1,016.85	100.0%	0
o/w: foreign	162.12	162.12	100.0%	0
Grants	751.56	724.84	96.4%	-26.73
Social benefits	140.57	89.6	63.7%	-50.97
Other expense	104.71	111.14	106.1%	6.43
Gross operating balance	-137.6	-507.42	368.8%	-369.82
Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets	432.35	461.1	106.6%	28.75
Net lending/borrowing (surplus/deficit)	-569.95	-968.52	__	__

Revenues and Grants

In September 2025, total revenue collections and grants amounted to Shs 2,616.10 billion against the target of Shs. 2,977.80 billion, resulting in a shortfall of Shs 361.70 billion. The under performance was mainly attributed to lower-than-expected collections from taxes and other revenues (non-tax revenue), and less than programmed grant disbursements.

Taxes & Other revenue collections

Tax revenue collections amounted to Shs 2,370.24 billion against the target of Shs 2,475.20 billion, registering a shortfall of Shs 104.96 billion in the month of September 2025. This under performance was recorded in all the major tax categories.

Other revenue collections also registered a shortfall of Shs 115.49 billion against the target of Shs 266.17 billion. This was partly attributed to lower collections from administrative fees and licenses, especially in the immigration, transport, and energy sectors, coupled with reduced receipts from court fines and penalties.

Cumulatively, total domestic revenue collections from the start of FY2025/26 (July to September 2025), amounted to Shs 7,545.29 billion against a projection of Shs 7,937.55 billion, registering a cumulative shortfall of Shs 392.26 billion. This is mainly due to tax compliance and administration challenges which continue to affect performance of consumption taxes as well as taxes on international trade transactions. However, in spite of the shortfalls, domestic revenue collections posted growth of 8.6 percent growth compared to the same period in FY 2024/25.

Expenses

Total government expenses in September 2025 amounted to Shs 3,123.53 billion against the programmed expenses of Shs 3,115.40 billion, reflecting an overperformance of Shs 8.13 billion. The higher-than-planned spending was mainly driven by expenses under the purchase of goods and services.

Expenses on purchase of goods and services amounted to Shs 611.13 billion against the planned Shs 502.03 billion, as MDAs finalized the implementation of activities in their Quarter One work plan and therefore utilized some of the funds released for the quarter that they had not used in the first two months.

Conversely, spending under some categories such as compensation of employees, grants, and social benefits was slightly below their respective programmed targets. The slightly below-target performance under compensation of employees was mainly driven by lower spending on allowances, as Government prioritized expenditure towards growth-enhancing activities. However, spending on wages and salaries remained largely on target, amounting to Shs 291.57 billion against the planned Shs 291.92 billion.

Net acquisition of non-financial assets

In September 2025, government spent Shs 461.10 billion on acquisition of non-financial assets. Of this, Shs 455.70 billion was spent on fixed assets, primarily reflecting ongoing investments in infrastructure, while Shs 5.40 billion was allocated to the acquisition of non-produced assets such as land for right of way.

East Africa Community Developments

EAC Inflation¹⁶

Annual headline inflation among the EAC partner states in September 2025 remained relatively stable, with marginal movements observed. Inflation in Uganda and Kenya edged upwards to 4.0 percent and 4.6 percent from 3.8 percent and 4.5 percent in August 2025, respectively. This was primarily driven by price increases for food and non-alcoholic beverages during the month.

In Rwanda, annual headline inflation eased to 6.2 percent in September 2025, down from 6.4 percent in the previous month. The decline was largely attributed to lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as housing, water, and other utilities, among other categories.

On the other hand, annual headline inflation for Tanzania remained unchanged at 3.4 percent between August and September 2025.

EAC Exchange Rates¹⁷ ¹⁸

The Ugandan Shilling and Tanzanian Shilling appreciated by 1.8 percent and 1.0 percent against the US Dollar respectively, in September 2025. These gains were largely supported by increased offshore investor participation and sustained foreign exchange inflows from coffee and mineral exports during the month.

Conversely, the Rwandan Franc and Burundian Franc depreciated by 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively, against the US Dollar in September 2025, largely due to stronger dollar demand outpacing available supply in the foreign exchange market.

The Kenyan Shilling remained unchanged at Shs 129.24/USD during the month.

Trade Balance with EAC¹⁹

In August 2025, Uganda recorded a trade deficit of USD 156.71 million with the EAC Partner States, widening from USD 92.34 million in July 2025. The larger deficit was mainly attributed to a decline in exports to the region, which more than offset the decline in the import bill.

Export receipts from the region dropped by 21.1 percent to USD 248.39 million in August 2025 from USD 314.83 million the previous month. At a country level, the sharpest decline was observed in exports to Kenya, which fell by USD 30.54 million from USD 82.83 million in July to USD 52.29 million in August 2025 due to the non-tariff barriers for Uganda’s exports to Kenya.

Similarly, merchandise imports from the EAC region declined slightly by 0.5 percent, from USD 407.17 million in July to USD 405.01 million in August 2025. The largest drop was recorded in imports from Tanzania, which decreased by USD 42.09 million. However, this decline was partly offset by a significant increase in imports from Kenya, which rose by USD 38.62 million during the month.

Glossary

Term	Description
Bid to cover ratio	This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI	The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA	CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation	This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation	This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan	This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor	This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI	The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM)	Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.
Month on Month	Is a way to measure the percentage change in a value from one month to the next.
Year on Year	Is a method of comparing data for a specific period (e.g., a month or quarter) with the same period in the previous year.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Some Data for South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
The sectors covered by the survey include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction, wholesale, retail and services.↩︎
The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.↩︎
The sectors monitored include construction, manufacturing, whole sale trade, agriculture, financial and other services↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts of a previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
September 2025 inflation Data for South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Exchange rate data for Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available in September 2025.↩︎
Negative figures show an appreciation while positive figures show a depreciation against the US Dollar↩︎
Data on trade with the EAC has a one-month lag.↩︎

September 2025

Performance of the Economy Report

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

2025-10-21