July 2025
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2025-08-21
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
In July 2025, economic activity and perceptions about doing business in Uganda continued to strengthen as shown by the high-frequency indicators of economic activity and sentiments (the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), the Business Tendency Index (BTI)).
The PMI remained above its 50-mark threshold at 53.6 in July 2025 signaling a continued improvement in private sector activity. This however was a slight reduction from 55.6 in June 2025 due to an increase in input costs.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased from 179.14 in May 2025 to 181.03 in June 2025 demonstrating a continued improvement in the level of economic activity. This represented a growth of 1.1 percent in June 2025, higher than the growth of 0.3 percent in the previous month.
Perceptions about doing business in Uganda remained positive with the Business Tendency Index (BTI) recorded at 58.30 in July 2025. Investors were more optimistic about the business situation in the next three months, order volumes as well as current and future employment.
Annual headline inflation declined slightly to 3.8 percent in July 2025 from 3.9 percent in June 2025. This was on account of a reduction in annual food crop inflation and annual core inflation, which dropped to 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent in July 2025 from 4.7 percent and 4.2 percent in June 2025 respectively. On the other hand, annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities (EFU) inflation was recorded at 0 percent in July 2025 from a deflation of 0.2 percent in June 2025. The 0 percent annual EFU inflation implies that general prices in the EFU basket of goods remained unchanged in July 2025 from the same month the previous year.
Financial Sector
In July 2025, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated by 0.5 percent to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,586.57/USD from Shs 3,605.84/USD in June 2025. This was partly supported by increased foreign exchange inflows from offshore investors, remittances and coffee export receipts combined with well-coordinated monetary and fiscal policies.
Bank of Uganda maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 9.75 percent in July 2025. This decision was considered appropriate to keep inflation within the medium-term target of 5 percent while supporting economic growth and socio-economic transformation.
The weighted average lending rates for the Shilling-denominated credit increased from 18.64 percent in May 2025 to 19.07 percent in June 2025. This was partly driven by higher demand for personal and household loans e.g. mobile money loans.
The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit (PSC) rose by 1.6 percent, from Shs 23,536.10 billion in May 2025 to Shs 23,901.94 billion in June 2025. This increase was driven by growth in both Shilling and foreign currency-denominated credit, which expanded from Shs 16,859.60 billion and Shs 6,676.50 billion in May to Shs 17,095.37 billion and Shs 6,806.57 billion, respectively, in June 2025.
In July 2025, Government secured Shs. 2,690.6 billion from four auctions (3 T-Bills, 1 T-Bond). Of the total amount raised, Shs. 1,346.24 billion was from T-Bills while Shs. 1,344.39 billion was from the T-Bond auction. A total of Shs. 1,220.98 billion was used for refinancing maturing securities while Shs. 1,469.65 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
Yields (interest rates) on the 91-day and 364-day Treasury Bills declined to 11.6 percent and 15.3 percent in July 2025 down from 12.0 percent and 15.6 percent in June 2025, respectively. The yield on the 182-day tenor slightly edged upwards to 13.2 percent in July 2025 from 12.8 percent recorded the previous month.
Yields on treasury bonds edged downwards across all tenors compared to the rates registered in previous auctions. The yield for the 3-year tenor bond declined to 15.55 percent from 16.50 percent, while the yield for the 10-year tenor bond reduced to 17.10 percent from 17.50 percent. Similarly, the yield for the 20-year tenor bond fell marginally to 17.90 percent from 17.95 percent.
External Sector
Year-on-year, Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened from USD 244.93 million in June 2024 to USD 272.9 million in June 2025. This resulted from a significant increase in the import bill which more than offset the increase in the export earnings.
Uganda’s merchandise exports increased from USD 702.5 million in June 2024 to USD 1,154.4 million in June 2025. The growth in exports was majorly attributed to higher export earnings from coffee, mineral products, tea, fish, flowers among others.
The value of merchandise imports increased from USD 947.4 million in June 2024 to USD 1,427.3 million in June 2025. This increase was largely attributed to higher private sector imports particularly; animal and animal products, mineral products, vegetable products, beverages, prepared food stuff, textiles and textile products, wood products, machinery equipment, vehicles and accessories, among others.
Fiscal Sector
Government operations in July 2025 resulted in a fiscal deficit of Shs 1,459.24 billion, which was lower than the Shs 1,659.62 billion planned deficit for the month on account of higher than anticipated revenues, coupled with the lower than planned expenditure 2 during the month.
Total revenue and grants amounted to Shs 2,537.77 billion in July 2025, registering a surplus against the target of Shs 2,459.96 billion. However, domestic revenues amounted to Shs 2,369.6 billion slightly below the target of Shs 2,665.8 billion. This was mainly on account of non-tax revenues which were lower than the target, posting a 63.6 percent performance while tax collections were close to target at 99.3 percent performance. The surplus from total revenue and grants was mainly due to grants worth Shs 168.21 billion that were received but initially not included in the plan.
Total government expenses amounted to Shs 3,619.60 billion in July 2025, falling short of the planned expenses for the month by Shs 155.02 billion. The lower than planned expenses were partly due to delays in the implementation of requisite budget processes at the beginning of the financial year.
In the month of July 2025, expenditure on acquisition of non-financial assets amounted to Shs 377.41 billion, reflecting 109.4 percent performance against the Shs 344.97 billion program for the month. This was mainly on account of a higher than anticipated disbursement of Shs. 168.21 billion to the Investment for industrial Transformation and Employment (INVITE) project during the month.
East African Community3
Annual headline inflation for July 2025 varied among the EAC Partner States. Uganda and Rwanda’s inflation reduced to 3.8 percent and 7.2 percent in July 2025 from 3.9 percent and 8.3 percent in June 2025, respectively. In contrast, Kenya’s inflation increased to 4.1 percent in July 2025 from 3.8 percent recorded in June 2025, while Tanzania’s inflation remained unchanged at 3.3 percent for June and July 2025.
In July 2025, the Ugandan, Tanzanian and Kenyan Shillings appreciated by 0.5 percent, 0.7 percent and 0.02 percent respectively. In Tanzania’s case, the appreciation was partly on account of an increase in export and tourism receipts. On the other hand, depreciation of Burundian and Rwandan Francs persisted in the month under review, weakening by 0.18 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
Uganda’s trade deficit with EAC Partner States widened by 95 percent from USD 107.55 million in May 2025 to USD 209.51 million in June 2025. The wider deficit was partly explained by a marginal decline in export receipts from the region, coupled with a rise in imports from the region. Export receipts to the EAC declined partly due to tariff and non-tariff barriers including import quotas, which some partner states have imposed on our exports. These affected exports like tiles, fish, diary & meat products, onions, potatoes etc.
Real Sector Developments
Inflation
Annual headline inflation declined slightly to 3.8 percent in July 2025 from 3.9 percent in June 2025. This was attributed to a reduction in annual food crop inflation due to an increase in food supply, coupled with a slight reduction in annual core inflation.
Annual core inflation dropped marginally to 4.1 percent in July 2025 from 4.2 percent in June 2025 on account of a decline in annual inflation for services such as passenger transport services and accommodation services. These recorded annual inflation rates of -3.5 percent and 3.5 percent respectively in July 2025 down from -2.7 percent and 3.6 percent respectively in the previous month. The decline in transport costs is partly due to reduced fuel prices in the past months.
Annual inflation for food crops declined to 3.2 percent in July 2025 from 4.7 percent the previous month. This was attributed to increased food supply in the market leading to a reduction in prices for a number of food crops as well as a slowdown in the rate at which prices of some other food crops increased.
Food crops that recorded a reduction in prices included; citrus fruits (-2.6 percent in July from 11.8 percent in June), watermelons (-3.7 percent in July from 2.9 percent in June), cabbages (-25.3 percent in July from -17.7 percent in June), fresh leaf vegetables (-12.6 percent in July from -6.5 percent in June), tomatoes (-8.1 percent in July from 0.9 percent in June), green peppers (-0.3 percent in July from 1.7 percent in June), peas (-6.3 percent in July from -0.6 percent in June), and Irish potatoes (-4.6 percent in July from -0.6 percent in June). Food crops that recorded a slowdown in the rate at which prices increased included; pineapples (13.6 percent in July from 22.3 percent in June), passion fruits (0.9 percent in July from 5.3 percent in June), beans, (8.3 percent in July from 12.1 percent in June), pumpkin (11.2 percent in July from 12.9 percent in June) and carrots (4 percent in July from 5.1 percent in June).
On the other hand, Annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities’ inflation was recorded at 0 percent4 in July 2025 from a reduction of 0.2 percent in June 2025.This change was mainly attributed to a slowdown in the rate at which prices of all liquid fuels and electricity charges were declining as well as a rise in both charcoal and water charges.
Domestic fuel prices have been on a downward trend since September 2024. This has been attributed to a reduction in the international fuel price as well as government’s decision to grant the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC) sole responsibility for importing fuel into the country. This move ensured consistent and reliable supply of fuel. Similarly, electricity charges have also posted annual declines since July 2024, driven by Government’s deliberate reductions in power tariffs which are aimed at promoting affordable domestic, commercial and industrial consumption of electricity.
Economic Activity
The high frequency indicators of both economic activity and sentiments continued to indicate positive economic performance and perceptions about the economy.
In June 2025, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA)5 increased at a faster rate from 179.14 in May 2025 to 181.03 in June 2025. This represented growth of 1.1 percent in June 2025, higher than the growth of 0.3 percent in the previous month.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)6 remained above the 50-mark threshold at 53.6 in July 2025, signaling a continued improvement in private sector activity. This was driven mainly by an increase in business orders amidst favorable demand conditions, as well as a resultant rise in employment and output. At sectoral level, jobs were generated in all monitored sectors except manufacturing.
Whereas the PMI remained above the 50-mark threshold in July 2025, it dropped from 55.6 in June 2025 due to an increase in input costs.
Business Perceptions
The Business Tendency Index (BTI)7, which is an indicator of economic sentiments towards the economy remained positive at 58.3 but less optimistic compared to the previous month.
An assessment of key indicators showed that the index mainly expressed optimism about the business situation in the next three months, order volumes as well as current and future employment.
An assessment of key indicators by sector showed that optimism was reflected in all the five monitored sectors i.e., Agriculture, Construction, Manufacturing, Services, Wholesale and Retail Trade.
Financial Sector Developments
Exchange Rate Movements
The Shilling strengthened against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive month, appreciating by 0.5 percent in July 2025 to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,586.57/USD from Shs 3,605.84/USD in June 2025. This performance was partly supported by increased foreign exchange inflows from offshore investors, remittances and coffee export receipts combined with well-coordinated monetary and fiscal policies. The appreciation was also partly influenced by the global weakening of the US Dollar against major currencies such as the British Pound Sterling and the Euro.
During the same month, the Shilling appreciated by 0.6 percent against the British Pound Sterling, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 4,893.36/GBP compared to Shs 4,886.34/GBP in June 2025, but depreciated by 1.0 percent against the Euro, with the average mid-rate rising to Shs 4,201.54/EUR from Shs 4,159.09/EUR over the same period.
Interest Rate Movements
The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 9.75 percent in July 2025, marking the tenth consecutive month at this rate. Bank of Uganda considered this rate adequate to keep inflation within the medium-term target of 5 percent while fostering economic growth and socio-economic transformation.
Lending Rates8
The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit increased from 18.64 percent in May 2025 to 19.07 percent in June 2025. This increase was partly driven by higher demand for personal and household loans e.g. mobile money loans.
Similarly, the weighted average lending rates for foreign currency-denominated credit increased from 8.36 percent in May 2025 to 8.78 percent in June 2025. The rise was partly on account of the higher risk associated with new borrowers, particularly in the mortgage and telecom sectors, which prompted commercial banks to charge higher interest rates.
Government Securities
In July 2025, Government secured Shs. 2,690.6 billion from four auctions (3 T-Bills, 1 T-Bond). Of the total amount raised, Shs. 1,346.24 billion was from T-Bills while Shs. 1,344.39 billion was from the T-Bond auction. A total of Shs. 1,220.98 billion was used for refinancing maturing securities while Shs. 1,469.65 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2023/24 | 15,021.3 | 6,662.8 | 8,358.5 |
| FY 2024/25 | 23,520.3 | 12,117 | 11,403.3 |
| July 2025 | 2,690.6 | 1,469.7 | 1,221 |
| FY 2025/26 to date | 2,690.6 | 1,469.7 | 1,221 |
Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on the 91-day and 364-day Treasury Bills declined to 11.6 percent and 15.3 percent in July 2025 down from 12.0 percent and 15.6 percent in June 2025, respectively. The yield on the 182-day tenor slightly edged upwards to 13.2 percent in July 2025 from 12.8 percent recorded the previous month.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio recorded at 1.77 in July, 2025.
Yields on Treasury Bonds
During the month of July 2025, Government issued a new 3-year tenor bond and reopened9 two bonds of 10-year and 20-year tenors in the primary securities market.
Yields edged downwards across all tenors compared to the rates registered in previous auctions. The yield for the 3-year tenor bond declined to 15.55 percent from 16.50 percent, while the yield for the 10-year tenor bond reduced to 17.10 percent from 17.50 percent. Similarly, the yield for the 20-year tenor bond fell marginally to 17.90 percent from 17.95 percent.
The general reduction in yields for Government securities was partly attributed to strong demand from the private sector, as reflected in the higher bid-to-cover ratio recorded in July 2025.
Outstanding Private Sector Credit10
The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit grew by 7.5 percent to Shs 23,901.94 billion in June 2025 from Shs 22,243.07 billion in June 2024. This was mainly driven by higher demand for credit following an improvement in economic activity as shown by the real GDP growth rate of 6.3 percent for FY 2024/25.
On a similar note, the stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit grew by 1.6 percent on a month-on-month basis, from Shs 23,536.10 billion in May 2025 to Shs 23,901.94 billion in June 2025. This increase was observed in both Shilling and foreign-currency denominated credit, which rose from Shs 16,859.60 billion and Shs 6,676.50 billion in May 2025 to Shs 17,095.37 billion and Shs 6,806.57 billion, respectively in June 2025.
Credit Extensions11
During the month of June 2025, the value of credit approved for disbursement amounted to Shs 1,432.38 billion against applications worth Shs 2,335.67 billion. This represented an approval rate of 61.3 percent in June 2025, down from 88.7 percent in May 2025.
Personal and Household Loans accounted for the largest share of the credit disbursements, taking up 33.3 percent (Shs 476.86 billion) of the total credit approved in June 2025. Other major recipients of credit included Trade at 17.1 percent (Shs. 244.61 billion), Agriculture at 16.8 percent (Shs. 240.91 billion), Building, Mortgage, Construction & Real Estate at 11.3 percent (Shs 162.27 billion), and Business, Community, Social & Other Sectors at 11.3 percent.
External Sector Developments
Merchandise Trade Balance12
Compared to June 2024, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit with the rest of the world widened by 11.4 percent from USD 244.9 million to USD 272.9 million in June 2025. This was on account of a growth in imports by USD 479.9 million which more than offset the growth in exports by USD 451.9 million.
Similarly, on a month-on-month basis, the merchandise trade deficit widened by 138 percent (USD 158.38 million), on account of a decline in exports by USD 43.4 million coupled with an increase in imports by USD 115.0 million during the month. The decline in exports was partly because of non-compliance by some Partner States to the EAC common market protocol.
Merchandise Exports13
The value of total merchandise exports amounted to USD 1,154.4 million in June 2025. This is 64.3 percent higher than the USD 702.5 million recorded for the same month the previous year. This growth in exports was mainly explained by higher earnings from coffee, mineral products, tea, fish, flowers, among others. Earnings from coffee grew by 78.4 percent between June 2024 and June 2025 on account of an increase in both coffee volumes and prices over that period.
However, in comparison to May 2025, there was a decline in merchandise exports. The value of exports dropped by 3.6 percent from USD 1,197.8 million in May 2025 to USD 1,154.4 million in June 2025. This was driven by lower export earnings from mineral products, tea, tobacco, maize, cocoa beans, sugar, among others. Additionally, new tariff and non-tariff barriers including import quotas, were imposed on Uganda’s exports by some EAC partner states. These affected exports to the region like tiles, fish, diary & meat products, onions, potatoes etc.
Coffee earnings during the period under comparison however increased by 18.7 percent due to higher volumes exported (1,014,062 60kg bags in June 2025 versus 793,445 60kg bags in May 2025) which made up for the decline in the average unit price of coffee during the period.
| Product | Jun-2024 | May-2025 | Jun-2025 |
Jun-2025 vs Jun-2024 % Change |
Jun-2025 vs May-2025 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 702.46 | 1,197.81 | 1,154.4 | 64.34 | -3.62 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 162.36 | 243.95 | 289.6 | 78.36 | 18.71 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.67 | 0.79 | 1.01 | 51.97 | 27.8 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 4.06 | 5.12 | 4.76 | 17.37 | -7.11 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 490.87 | 893.6 | 802.4 | 63.46 | -10.21 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 248.84 | 485.83 | 477.37 | 91.84 | -1.74 |
| Cocoa Beans | 31.77 | 108.58 | 39.29 | 23.67 | -63.82 |
| Cotton | 0.32 | 0.07 | 1.13 | 254.89 | 1,504.03 |
| Tea | 4.68 | 6.53 | 5.45 | 16.51 | -16.48 |
| Tobacco | 3.28 | 2.22 | 1.56 | -52.43 | -29.76 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 10.41 | 13.97 | 12.73 | 22.24 | -8.87 |
| Simsim | 1.23 | 3.24 | 2.24 | 82.6 | -30.86 |
| Maize | 7.66 | 7.99 | 5.69 | -25.73 | -28.82 |
| Beans | 6.11 | 3.13 | 6.35 | 3.91 | 102.86 |
| Flowers | 6.66 | 6.26 | 6.89 | 3.43 | 10.01 |
| Oil Re-Exports | 12.03 | 11.79 | 12.06 | 0.28 | 2.35 |
| Base Metals & Products | 14.34 | 17.79 | 25.02 | 74.44 | 40.64 |
| ICBT Exports | 49.22 | 60.26 | 62.4 | 26.77 | 3.55 |
Destination of Exports14
The Middle East remained the biggest market for Uganda’s exports in June 2025, accounting for 34.8 percent of the total merchandise exported during the month. Almost all the exports to this region (98.0 percent) were to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This was followed by the East African Community (EAC) which accounted for 24.9 percent of merchandise exports. Other notable importers of Ugandan goods in June 2025 included the European Union and Asia which accounted for 19.5 percent and 13.4 percent, respectively.
Merchandise Imports15
Year on year, the country imported merchandise worth USD 1,427.3 million in June 2025, posting a 50.7 percent increase from USD 947.4 million in June 2024. This increase was mainly driven by a rise in formal private sector oil and non-oil imports. These include; vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oils which grew by 110.2 percent, mineral products excluding petroleum products by 91.5 percent, base metals & their products by 80.1 percent, and animal & animal products by 68.1 percent.
Similarly, there was an 8.8 percent modest growth in merchandise imports on a month-on-month basis, from USD 1312.3 million in May 2025 to USD 1,427.3 million in June 2025. This growth was also attributed to an increase in formal private sector oil and non-oil imports. These include; animal & animal products by 53.6 percent, prepared foodstuffs, beverages & tobacco by 23.9 percent, chemical & related products by 18.4 percent, petroleum products by 14.9 percent, and electricity by 21.8 percent.
Origin of Imports
During the month of June 2025, Uganda sourced most of her imports from East African Community (EAC), accounting for 34.8 percent of the total imports for the month. This was a shift from Asia which was the biggest source of the country’s imports in May 2025. Asia was the second largest source of imports and accounted for 30.7 percent of the total imports.
Other notable sources of Uganda’s imports were rest of Africa and Middle East which accounted for 15.9 percent and 11.6 percent of the total imports, respectively.
Trade Balance by Region
In June 2025, Uganda traded at a surplus with the Middle East and the European Union while it recorded deficits with the rest of the trading blocks. The trade surplus with the Middle East amounted to USD 236.1 million in June 2025, a decline from the USD 278.7 million recorded in the previous month. The trade surplus with the European Union also declined to USD 169.9 million in June 2025 from USD 177.9 million in May 2025.
Uganda traded at deficits of USD 283.1 million, USD 167.8 million and USD 209.5 million with Asia, Rest of Africa, and the EAC, respectively.
| Region | Jun 2024 | May 2025 | Jun 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 76.1 | 177.91 | 169.93 |
| Rest of Europe | -0.68 | -9.4 | -11.85 |
| Middle East | 14.26 | 278.69 | 236.08 |
| Asia | -191.26 | -248.13 | -283.05 |
| EAC | 9.56 | -107.55 | -209.51 |
| Rest of Africa | -145.35 | -187.93 | -167.81 |
| Other Countries | -7.57 | -18.13 | -6.72 |
Fiscal Developments16
Preliminary data shows that Government fiscal operations in July 2025 resulted in a net borrowing (fiscal deficit) of Shs 1,459.24 billion. This deficit is lower than the programmed level of Shs 1,659.62 billion on account of higher than anticipated total revenues and grants, coupled with the lower than planned expenditure during the month.
Table 4 provides a summary of the preliminary government fiscal operations in July 2025.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 2,459.96 | 2,537.77 | 103.2% | 77.81 |
| Taxes | 2,254.14 | 2,238.57 | 99.3% | -15.56 |
| Grants | 0 | 168.21 | __ | 168.21 |
| Project support | 0 | 168.21 | __ | 168.21 |
| Other revenue (Non-tax revenue) | 205.82 | 130.99 | 63.6% | -74.84 |
| Expense | 3,774.62 | 3,619.6 | 95.9% | -155.02 |
| Compensation of employees | 407.77 | 377.61 | 92.6% | -30.16 |
| Wages And Salaries | 255.28 | 254.92 | 99.9% | -0.36 |
| Allowances | 64.9 | 36.95 | 56.9% | -27.95 |
| Employers’ social contributions | 87.59 | 85.74 | 97.9% | -1.85 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 636.68 | 531.97 | 83.6% | -104.71 |
| Interest | 1,792.43 | 1,792.43 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: domestic | 1,527.08 | 1,527.08 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: foreign | 265.35 | 265.35 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Grants | 844.75 | 808.3 | 95.7% | -36.45 |
| Social benefits | 51.76 | 15.88 | 30.7% | -35.88 |
| Other expense | 41.23 | 93.41 | 226.6% | 52.19 |
| Gross operating balance | -1,314.66 | -1,081.83 | 82.3% | 232.83 |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 344.97 | 377.41 | 109.4% | 32.44 |
| Net lending/borrowing (surplus/deficit) | -1,659.62 | -1,459.24 | __ | __ |
Revenues and Grants
In the month of July 2025, total revenues and grants amounted to Shs 2,537.77 billion, reflecting a 103.2 percent performance compared to Shs 2,459.96 billion planned for the month. Of this total, Shs 2,238.57 billion were tax collections while grants and other revenue (non-tax revenue) collections amounted to Shs 168.21 billion and 130.99 billion respectively.
Taxes & Other revenue collections
Tax collections in July 2025 were close to target, posting a 99.3 percent performance against the Shs 2,254.14 billion target. This performance was mainly driven by surplus collections under direct domestic taxes, particularly corporation tax, withholding tax and taxes on treasury bills and bonds.
However, indirect domestic taxes and international trade taxes during the month posted shortfalls which more than offset the surpluses registered under direct taxes. The shortfalls in both indirect taxes and taxes on international trade transactions were mainly driven by lower than anticipated collections for VAT, Excise, petroleum duty and excise duty on imports during the month.
Preliminarily, other revenues (non-tax revenues) amounted to Shs 130.99 billion, a 63.6 percent performance compared to the Shs 205.82 billion plan for the month.
Grants
Project support grants from development partners during the month amounted to Shs 168.21 billion. This amount was disbursed by the World Bank to the Investment for industrial Transformation and Employment (INVITE) project.
Expenses
Total government expenses during the month of July 2025 amounted to Shs 3,619.60 billion, falling short of the projected expenses for the month by Shs 155.02 billion. This was partly on account of delays in the implementation of requisite budget processes at the beginning of the financial year.
As a result, purchase of goods and services was short by Shs 104.71 billion, compensation of employees was short of plan by Shs 30.16 billion although most of this was under allowances as wages and employers’ social contributions were more or less on target. Grants from the central government to Local Governments, tertiary institutions and other Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) were also lower than the plan for the month by Shs 36.45 billion.
Net acquisition of non-financial assets
In the month of July 2025, expenditure on acquisition of non-financial assets amounted to Shs 377.41 billion, reflecting 109.4 percent performance against the Shs 344.97 billion program for the month. This was mainly on account of the Investment for industrial Transformation and Employment (INVITE) project which received a disbursement of Shs 168.21 billion that had not been anticipated for July 2025.
East Africa Community Developments
EAC Inflation17
Annual headline inflation for July 2025 varied among the EAC Partner States whose data was readily available. Uganda and Rwanda’s inflation reduced to 3.8 percent and 7.2 percent in July 2025 from 3.9 percent and 8.3 percent in June 2025, respectively. This was attributed to a decline in prices for food crops and related items, non-alcoholic beverages, and housing, among others.
On the other hand, Kenya’s inflation increased to 4.1 percent in July 2025 from 3.8 percent recorded in June 2025 due to an increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels. On the other hand, Tanzania’s headline inflation remained unchanged at 3.3 percent for June and July 2025, implying that commodity price changes maintained the same pace over the two months.
EAC Exchange Rates18
In July 2025, Ugandan and Tanzanian Shillings appreciated against the US dollar, by 0.5 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively. The appreciation of the Uganda Shilling was explained by remittances and offshore inflows coupled with coffee export receipts and a sound monetary policy, while Tanzania’s was on account of increased export and tourism earnings. Similarly, the Kenyan Shilling appreciated against the dollar by 0.02 percent over the same period.
On the contrary, depreciation of Burundian and Rwandan Francs persisted in the month under review, weakening by 0.18 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively.
Trade Balance with EAC19
Uganda’s trade deficit with EAC Partner States widened by 95 percent from USD 107.55 million in May 2025 to USD 209.51 million in June 2025. The rise in the deficit is partly explained by a marginal decline in export receipts, coupled with a rise in imports.
Merchandise exports to the region decreased by 4 percent from USD 298.84 million in May 2025 to USD 287.02 million in June 2025 partly due to tariff and non-tariff barriers including import quarters, which some partner states have imposed on our exports. These affected Uganda’s exports like tiles, fish, diary & meat products, onions, potatoes etc.
The Democratic Republic of Congo maintained its position as the top destination market within the region, accounting for 33.3 percent of Uganda’s total exports to the region in June 2025. Kenya, South Sudan, and Rwanda followed with shares of 24 percent, 19.6 percent, and 12.5 percent, respectively, over the same period.
Conversely, the merchandise import bill grew by 22 percent from USD 406.39 million in May 2025 to USD 496.53 million in June 2025. The largest share of Uganda’s imports was sourced from Tanzania and Kenya, which jointly accounted for 98 percent of Uganda’s imports from the region, valued at USD 297.13 million and USD 189.11 million, respectively.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
| Month on Month | Is a way to measure the percentage change in a value from one month to the next. |
| Year on Year | Is a method of comparing data for a specific period (e.g., a month or quarter) with the same period in the previous year. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Total expenditure comprises total expenses (such as compensation of employees, purchase of goods and services, and interest payments) and the acquisition of non-financial assets (capital spending on infrastructure, equipment, and other physical assets).↩︎
Some Data for South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
The 0 percent annual EFU inflation implies that general prices in the EFU basket of goods remained unchanged in July 2025 from the same month the previous year.↩︎
Data on CIEA has a lag of one month.↩︎
The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration.↩︎
The Overall BTI above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts using previously issued bond instruments, but with a different issue date and different purchase price.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Recent data for Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data on trade with the EAC has a one-month lag.↩︎