June 2025
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2025-07-22
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
Annual headline inflation slightly increased to 3.9 percent in June 2025 from 3.8 percent the previous month. This was mainly on account of an increase in the price of some food items like matooke, dry beans, and passion fruits among others. However, analysis of the whole financial year shows that inflation was generally subdued, with annual headline inflation averaging 3.5 percent while annual core inflation averaged 3.9 percent, which is within the government’s policy target of 5 percent.
The Preliminary Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) show robust economic growth of 6.3 percent for FY2024/25. This is further evidenced by the high-frequency indicators of economic activity which continued to improve in the months of May and June 2025.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA), which measures economic performance, grew by 0.3 percent to 178.58 in May 2025 supported by the strong performance of both imports and exports, as well as government spending among others, during the month.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), an indicator of the health of the private sector, posted 55.6 in June 2025. This was above the 50-mark threshold, indicating improved business conditions during the month, largely driven by increased output and a rise in new orders.
Similarly, sentiments about doing business in Uganda remained optimistic as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI). The BTI in June 2025 was recorded at 59.17 as investors expressed optimism mainly driven by expectations of strong consumer demand and a favorable financial outlook over the next three months.
Financial Sector
The Ugandan Shilling continues to strengthen against the US Dollar. In the month of June 2025, the Shilling appreciated by 1.3 percent, trading at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,605.84/USD compared to Shs 3,653.40/USD in May 2025. This was mainly due to increased dollar inflows from exports as well as Foreign Direct Investment.
The private sector credit market activity remained vibrant in May 2025, with Shs 2,311.19 billion disbursed to borrowers during the month. This was 49.4 percent higher than the Shs 1,547.15 billion disbursed in April 2025.
During the month of June 2025, Shs 1,861.19 billion was raised from three auctions of government securities on the domestic market. Of this, Shs 393.09 billion was used for refinancing of maturing securities while Shs 1,468.11 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
External Sector
Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed by 15.2 percent to USD 110.85 million in May 2025 compared to USD 130.67 million in May 2024. This followed a major increase in export earnings which more than offset the effect of the increase in the import bill over this period.
Export earnings increased by 36.8 percent to USD 1,198.86 million in May 2025 from USD 876.40 million in the same month of the previous year. The import bill, on the other hand, increased by 30.1 percent from USD 1,007.08 million in May 2024 to USD 1,309.71 million in May 2025.
A month-on-month comparison between April 2025 and May 2025 showed similar movements, with the trade balance narrowing by 3.3 percent following a higher growth of 6.9 percent in exports compared to the 6.0 percent growth for imports.
Fiscal Sector
Government fiscal operations in June 2025 resulted in a deficit (net borrowing) worth Shs 44.49 billion. This was on account of shortfalls registered under grants and non-tax revenue coupled with higher than anticipated expenditure during the month.
Preliminary data shows that tax collections exceeded the Shs 3,789.03 billion target by Shs 444.01 billion during the month, implying a 111.7 percent performance rate. Grants and non-tax revenue, on the other hand, registered shortfalls of Shs 322.57 billion and 487.99 billion respectively.
Government expenses in June 2025 amounted to Shs 3,018.55 billion, posting a 101.1 percent performance against the target for the month. Similarly, spending on acquisition of non-financial assets totaled Shs 1,412.09 billion which was 38.9 percent higher than initially planned. This was mainly on account of the supplementary expenditure issued in the second half of the financial year which implied that most expenditure items had more funds to spend than what was in the initial approved budget. Additionally, June being the final month of the financial year, most MDAs were finalizing implementation of their work plans.
East African Community2
Save for Kenya whose inflation remained unchanged at 3.8 percent, there was an increase in annual headline inflation for other Partner States with Rwanda and Tanzania’s inflation increasing to 8.3 percent and 3.3 percent in June 2025 from 7.7 percent and 3.1 percent in May 2025, respectively.
The Tanzanian Shilling posted an appreciation against the US Dollar of 2.5 percent in June 2025. On the other hand, both the Rwandan and Burundi Francs posted depreciations of 0.6 percent and 0.1 percent respectively, during the month. Within the EAC, it’s only the Kenyan Shilling which remained unchanged against the US Dollar, trading at KShs 129.3 per Dollar, the same rate as the previous month.
During May 2025, Uganda exported merchandise worth USD 299.89 million and imported merchandise worth USD 405.56 million from the other EAC Partner States. As a result, the trade deficit between Uganda and the rest of the EAC was USD 105.68 million. This deficit was smaller than that registered in April 2025 as exports grew faster than imports between the two months.
Real Sector Developments
Inflation
Annual Headline inflation registered a marginal increase from 3.8 percent in May 2025 to 3.9 percent in June 2025. This was mainly explained by the increase in price for some food items such as matooke, dry beans, sweet potatoes, passion fruits and pineapples among others.
None the less, for the whole of Financial Year 2024/25, headline inflation was generally subdued, averaging at 3.5 percent. This was mainly on account of the prudent monetary policy that was carefully coordinated with fiscal policy, and good harvests that ensured steady food supply during the financial year.
Annual core inflation remained unchanged at 4.2 percent between May and June 2025. However, for the whole of FY2024/25, annual core inflation averaged 3.9 percent which is well within the policy target of 5 percent.
Annual inflation for food crops and related items increased to 4.7 percent in June 2025 from 4.3 percent in May 2025. The major drivers for this increase included dry beans and matooke, whose prices, on average, increased by 12.1 percent and 37.7 percent, respectively between June 2025 and June 2024. Other food items that registered a significant increase in price included passion fruits, carrots and pineapples, whose prices increased by 5.3 percent, 5.1 percent and 22.3 percent respectively in June 2025 compared to the same month of the previous year.
Annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities’ inflationcontinued on a deflationary trajectory, registered at minus 0.2 percent in June 2025, from the minus 0.9 percent in the previous month. This was mainly driven by liquid fuels such as diesel and petrol as well as liquified gas, all of which recorded a reduction in price during the month. However, the rate of the decrease in the price of goods in this basket slowed down compared to the previous month.
Economic Activity
The high frequency indicators of economic activity showed a general improvement in the level of economic activity during the months of May and June 2025. The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) edged upwards by 0.3 percent to 178.58 in May 2025, up from 178.13 in April 2025. This was partly driven by improvements in trade (increase in both exports and imports) and government spending over this period.
Throughout the financial year, the CIEA maintained this upward trajectory, implying sustained improvements in the level of economic activity, in line with the preliminary estimates by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) of the 6.3 percent GDP growth in FY2024/25.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) was registered at 55.6, which is above the 50-mark threshold and thus signaled an improvement in the health of the private sector during the month of June 2025. This improvement was due to the continued expansion of output and new orders, driven by sustained demand. To keep up with the new orders, firms further increased their output levels during the month.
However, this performance is lower than the 56.4 registered May 2025, occasioned by higher input costs as firms reported higher staff costs and purchase costs for their inputs during the month.
Business Perceptions
Sentiments about doing business within the Ugandan economy remained positive as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which remained above the 50-mark threshold in June 2025. During the month, the BTI was recorded at 59.17, slightly down compared to the 59.60 registered in May 2025.
Assessment of the key indicators shows that investors expressed optimism regarding the financial and business situation mainly driven by strong consumer demand and a favorable financial outlook over the next three months. Sentiments were most positive in the manufacturing, construction and wholesale trade sectors.
Financial Sector Developments
Exchange Rate Movements
The Ugandan Shilling continued strengthening against the US Dollar in June 2025, trading at an average midrate of Shs 3,605.84 per USD compared to Shs 3,653.40 per USD in May 2025, thus resulting in a 1.3 percent appreciation. On an annual basis, the shilling appreciated by 2.7% against the US Dollar in FY2024/25 compared to FY2023/24. The average midrate for the Shilling against the US Dollar was Shs 3,778.61/USD in FY2023/24, declining to Shs 3,676.21/USD in FY2024/25.
The relative strengthening of the Shilling against the US Dollar in FY2024/25 was largely due to some financial market reforms that reduced demand for the US dollar, increased remittances, offshore portfolio investments, export earnings and foreign direct investments.
Interest Rate Movements
The Central Bank Rate (CBR) was kept at 9.75 percent in June 2025, a level that was considered adequate to keep inflation within the medium-term target while supporting economic growth and socio-economic transformation in the country.
Lending Rates3
In May 2025, the average weighted lending rates for both the Shilling and foreign currency denominated credit edged upwards. The weighted average lending rates for Shilling denominated credit increased to 18.64 percent in May 2025, from 16.64 percent in April 2025.
Similarly, the foreign currency denominated credit followed the same trend, increasing to 8.36 percent, from 8.20 percent for the period under review.
Government Securities
In June 2025, Shs 1,861.19 billion was raised from three auctions of government securities on the domestic market. Of the total amount raised, Shs 393.09 billion was used for refinancing of maturing securities while Shs 1,468.11 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2023/24 | 15,021.3 | 6,662.8 | 8,358.5 |
| FY 2024/25 | 23,517.8 | 12,114.5 | 11,403.3 |
| June 2025 | 1,861.2 | 1,468.1 | 393.1 |
| FY 2024/25 to date | 23,517.8 | 12,114.5 | 11,403.3 |
Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills for the 364-day and 182-Day tenors edged upwards to 15.6 percent and 12.8 percent in June 2025 from 15.4 percent and 12.7 percent in May 2025, respectively. However, the 91-Day tenor Bill slightly edged downwards to 12.0 percent in June 2025 from 12.1 percent in May 2025 as shown in Figure 9.
All auctions for Treasury Bills remained oversubscribed, ending the fiscal year with an average bid to cover ratio of 1.55 in June 2025.
Yields on Treasury Bonds
Yields for the bonds mostly edged upwards in comparison to the rates registered in previous auctions of similar securities. Yields for the 5-year and 15-Year tenor bonds increased to 16.8 percent and 17.8 percent in June 2025 from 16.7 percent and 17.7 percent recorded in the previous auctions, respectively. The annualized yield for the 2-Year tenor bond remained unchanged at 15.75 percent in June 2025 for the third time running.
Outstanding Private Sector Credit4
The stock of outstanding private sector credit remained relatively unchanged between April and May 2025. The stock was Shs 23,536.10 billion in May 2025, a 0.1 percent growth from the Shs 23,522.04 billion recorded in April 2025.
Of the total stock in May 2025, Shs 16,859.60 billion was Shillings denominated credit, an increment from Shs 16,756.06 billion in April 2025. On the other hand, Shs 6,676.49 billion was foreign currency denominated credit in May 2025, down from Shs 6,765.97 billion recorded in April 2025.
Credit Extensions5
The value of credit approved for disbursement in May 2025 amounted to Shs 2,311.19 billion. This amount represents an 88.7 percent approval rate against the Shs 2,605.38 billion that was applied for during the month. Comparison with April 2025 shows a 49.4 percent increase from the Shs 1,547.15 billion extended during that month.
During the month, Transport, Communications, Electricity and Water accounted for 30.6 percent (Shs 707.84 billion) of the total disbursements. This was followed by personal & household loans and manufacturing which accounted for 21.2 percent (Shs 490.80 billion) and 11.9 percent (Shs 275.46 billion) respectively.
External Sector Developments
Merchandise Trade Balance6
In May 2025, Uganda traded at a deficit of USD 110.85 million with the rest of the World. The trade deficit was 15.2 percent and 3.3 percent narrower than it was in May 2024 and April 2025, respectively. This followed a significant increase in exports in May 2025 that more than offset the increase in the import bill.
Export earnings were recorded at USD 1,198.86 million in May 2025, which was 36.8 percent higher than the USD 876.40 million recorded in May 2024. On the other hand, the import bill only increased by 30.1 percent from USD 1,007.08 million in May 2024 to USD 1,309.71 million in May 2025.
Month on month comparison between May 2025 and April 2025 shows that export earnings increased at a higher pace compared to the import bill. Whereas the export earnings increased by 6.9 percent from USD 1,120.98 million in April 2025 to USD 1,198.86 million in May 2025, the import bill increased by 6.0 percent between the two months, from USD 1,235.65 million in April 2025 to 1,309.71 million in May 2025.
Merchandise Exports7
The value of total merchandise exports amounted to USD 1,198.86 million in May 2025. This is 36.8 percent higher than the USD 876.40 million recorded for the same month of the previous year. This growth in exports was mainly driven by increased earnings from coffee, cocoa, and mineral products. The amount of earnings from coffee exports grew by 91.6 percent between May 2024 and May 2025 as both the volume and prices were better in 2025 compared to a year ago. Uganda exported 793,445 60-kilo bags of coffee in May 2025, earning a total of USD 243.95 million.
Similarly, favorable global prices of cocoa due to lower production in West Africa coupled with Uganda’s improved production of the commodity resulted in the country more than tripling the volume of cocoa beans exported from 3,010 tons in May 2024 to 9,867 tons in May 2025. Consequently, the country earned a total of USD 108.58 million from cocoa exports in May 2025 compared to USD 22.14 million in May 2024.
Other notable export commodities that registered growth included mineral products, tea, fish, beans, fruits and vegetables among others.
Growth in commodity exports was also registered between May 2025 and the month before. The value of exports increased by 6.9 percent from USD 1,120.98 million in April 2025 to USD 1198.86 million in May 2025. This was still driven by increments in exports of coffee, cocoa, mineral products, tea, fish, beans, fruits and vegetables.
| Product | May-2024 | Apr-2025 | May-2025 |
May-2025 vs May-2024 % Change |
May-2025 vs Apr-2025 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 876.4 | 1,120.98 | 1,198.86 | 36.79 | 6.95 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 127.3 | 214.38 | 243.95 | 91.63 | 13.79 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.55 | 0.69 | 0.79 | 43.27 | 14.28 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 3.83 | 5.15 | 5.12 | 33.75 | -0.42 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 700.01 | 842.94 | 893.6 | 27.66 | 6.01 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 455.33 | 462.86 | 485.83 | 6.7 | 4.96 |
| Cocoa Beans | 22.14 | 105.58 | 108.58 | 390.53 | 2.84 |
| Cotton | 1.13 | 0.34 | 0.07 | -93.79 | -79.58 |
| Tea | 5.73 | 3.77 | 6.53 | 13.81 | 73.22 |
| Tobacco | 5.29 | 2.62 | 2.22 | -58.01 | -15.16 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 10.57 | 12.09 | 13.97 | 32.13 | 15.53 |
| Simsim | 3.4 | 2.35 | 3.24 | -4.76 | 37.63 |
| Maize | 4.55 | 8.97 | 7.99 | 75.62 | -10.85 |
| Beans | 2.6 | 1.74 | 3.13 | 20.32 | 79.44 |
| Flowers | 6.28 | 5.2 | 6.26 | -0.28 | 20.46 |
| Oil Re-Exports | 11.83 | 11.9 | 11.79 | -0.34 | -0.97 |
| Base Metals & Products | 17.86 | 18.84 | 17.79 | -0.41 | -5.56 |
| ICBT Exports | 49.09 | 63.66 | 61.31 | 24.89 | -3.69 |
Destination of Exports8
The Middle East remained the biggest market for Uganda’s exports in May 2025, accounting for 34.4 percent of the total merchandise exported during the month. Almost all the exports to this region (98.4 percent) during the month were to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The East African Community (EAC) also remains an important export destination, having taken 25 percent of Uganda’s exports during the month. Of the total exports to the EAC, 20.4 percent was through the Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT).
Other notable importers of Ugandan goods in May 2025 included the European Union and Asia which accounted for 19.1 percent and 15.5 percent, respectively.
Merchandise Imports9
There was a 30.1 percent growth in the total of merchandise imports to Uganda from the rest of the world in May 2025 compared to May 2024. In the latter month, the country imported merchandise worth USD 1,007.08 million while in the former, imports increased to USD 1,309.71 million. Similarly, there was growth, albeit modest, of merchandise imports between April 2025 and May 2025. In April 2025, the total merchandise import bill was recorded at USD 1,235.65 million.
The increase in imports, both on a month-on-month basis and on a year-on-year basis, was mainly driven by formal private sector oil and non-oil imports. Vegetable products, animal products, beverages, fats & oil imports grew by 59.5 percent between May 2024 and May 2025, and by 5.2 percent between April 2025 and May 2025. Imports of machinery equipment, Vehicles and Accessories also increased by 20.8 percent and 18.7 percent during those respective periods.
Other categories of merchandise imports that recorded significant increments in May 2025 compared to April 2025 and May 2024 included base metals and their products, wood and wood products, petroleum products, and prepared foodstuffs, beverages and tobacco.
Mineral Products (excluding Petroleum products) increased by 50.4 percent between May 2024 and May 2025 but registered a 7.3 percent decline between April 2025 and May 2025. On the other hand, petroleum products registered a major growth of 40.4 percent between April 2025 and May 2025 and a modest growth of 4.2 percent between May 2025 and the same month of the previous year.
Origin of Imports
During May 2025, highest amount of Uganda’s imports was from Asia, accounting for 33.1 percent of the total imports for the month. This was followed by the East African Community (EAC) which contributed 31.0 percent of the total imports. More than half of the imports from the EAC region were from Tanzania in May 2025.
Other notable sources of Uganda’s imports were the rest of Africa and the Middle East which accounted for 18.7 percent and 10.1 percent of the total imports, respectively.
Trade Balance by Region
During May 2025, Uganda traded at a surplus with the Middle East and the European Union while it recorded deficits with the rest of the trading blocks. The trade surplus with the Middle East amounted to USD 278.96 million in May 2025, a decline from the USD 304.10 million recorded in the previous month. The trade surplus with the European Union increased to USD 178.01 million in May 2025 from USD 158.90 million in April 2025.
Uganda traded at deficits of USD 247.26 million, USD 187.43 million and USD 105.68 million with Asia, rest of Africa, and the East African Community, respectively.
| Region | May 2024 | Apr 2025 | May 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 50.91 | 158.9 | 178.01 |
| Rest of Europe | 0.12 | 4.26 | -9.37 |
| Middle East | 134.92 | 304.1 | 278.96 |
| Asia | -86.72 | -217.14 | -247.26 |
| EAC | -98.38 | -115.72 | -105.68 |
| Rest of Africa | -128.74 | -249.86 | -187.43 |
| Other Countries | -2.79 | 0.79 | -18.08 |
Fiscal Developments10
Fiscal operations during June 2025 had been programmed to give a surplus (net lending) of Shs 750.16 billion. However, execution during the month resulted in a deficit (net borrowing) of Shs 44.49 billion. This was due to higher-than-expected expenditure on one hand, and lower than anticipated grants and non-tax revenue on the other. Table 4 provides a summary of fiscal operations for June 2025.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 4,752.71 | 4,386.16 | 92.3% | -366.55 |
| Taxes | 3,789.03 | 4,233.04 | 111.7% | 444.01 |
| Grants | 336.82 | 14.24 | 4.2% | -322.57 |
| Project support | 336.82 | 14.24 | 4.2% | -322.57 |
| Other revenue (Non-tax revenue) | 626.86 | 138.87 | 22.2% | -487.99 |
| Expense | 2,985.88 | 3,018.55 | 101.1% | 32.67 |
| Compensation of employees | 478.84 | 530.31 | 110.7% | 51.47 |
| Wages And Salaries | 321.8 | 330.35 | 102.7% | 8.55 |
| Allowances | 85.29 | 99.1 | 116.2% | 13.81 |
| Employers’ social contributions | 71.75 | 100.86 | 140.6% | 29.11 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 1,103.93 | 1,176.31 | 106.6% | 72.38 |
| Interest | 262.42 | 262.42 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: domestic | 131.63 | 131.63 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: foreign | 130.79 | 130.79 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Grants | 839.51 | 827.44 | 98.6% | -12.07 |
| Social benefits | 62.8 | 106.28 | 169.2% | 43.47 |
| Other expense | 238.38 | 115.79 | 48.6% | -122.59 |
| Gross operating balance | 1,766.83 | 1,367.61 | 77.4% | -399.22 |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 1,016.67 | 1,412.09 | 138.9% | 395.43 |
| Net lending/borrowing (surplus/deficit) | 750.16 | -44.49 | __ | __ |
Domestic Revenues & Grants
Domestic revenue collections for June 2025 amounted to Shs 4,386.16 billion, reflecting a 92.3% performance against the planned target of Shs 4,752.71 billion. The underperformance was primarily due to shortfalls in non-tax revenue collections.
Despite the overall shortfall in total revenue, tax collections recorded a surplus of Shs 444.01 billion against the target of Shs 4,233.04 billion.
This was mainly driven by higher collections from taxes on international trade transactions and taxes on incomes, profits, and capital gains, which posted surpluses of Shs 982.53 billion and Shs 204.77 billion, respectively.
Expenses
Total expenses in June 2025 amounted to Shs 3,018.55 billion, exceeding the programmed amount of Shs 2,985.88 billion by Shs 32.67 billion. This was due to higher than planned spending on compensation of employees, payment of social benefits, and purchases of goods and services.
Compensation of employees amounted to Shs 530.31 billion, surpassing the planned Shs 478.84 billion for June 2025. This was mainly under the payment of employer’s social contributions as well as allowances. Spending on purchase of goods and services were also higher than programmed by Shs 72.38 billion mainly as MDAs aimed at accomplishing their planned activities for the financial year.
Grants from central government to local governments, tertiary institutions, and referral hospitals amounted to Shs 827.44 billion, slightly below the planned target of Shs 839.51 billion. This was partly due to some spending under this category having been frontloaded in the previous months of Quarter four (Q4) to speed up service delivery.
Net acquisition of non-financial assets
In June 2025, government expenditure on the acquisition of non-financial assets amounted to Shs 1,412.09 billion, compared to the programmed Shs 1,016.67 billion. This reflects a performance rate of 138.9 percent, attributed to increased fund releases to support domestic development spending, including rehabilitation of referral hospitals, acquisition of security-related equipment, and road construction and upgrades.
East Africa Community Developments
EAC Inflation11
Save for Kenya, there was a general pick-up in annual headline inflation for the EAC Partner States whose data was available at the time of reporting.
Annual headline inflation in Kenya remained unchanged at 3.8 percent while that of Rwanda and Tanzania increased from 7.7 percent and 3.1 percent in May 2025 to 8.3 percent and 3.3 percent in June 2025, respectively.
This was mainly driven by the increase in prices for commodities under the categories of housing, water, electricity, food and non-alcoholic beverages across these countries during the month.
EAC Exchange Rates12
Within the region, the Ugandan and Tanzanian Shillings posted appreciations of 1.3 percent and 2.5 percent respectively against the US Dollar. The performance of the Tanzanian Shilling is explained by the increased Dollar inflows, particularly from gold exports and tourism.
On the other hand, the Rwandan and Burundi Francs both registered depreciations of 0.6 percent and 0.1 percent respectively against the US Dollar during the month.
The exchange rate of the Kenyan Shilling against the US Dollar, however, remained unchanged.
Trade Balance with EAC13
In May 2025, Uganda traded at a deficit of USD 105.68 million with the rest of the EAC Partner States. This is a smaller deficit compared to USD 115.72 million registered in April 2025 as the increase in export earnings from the region more than offset the increase in the import bill from the region, during the month.
Merchandise exports to the region amounted to USD 299.89 million, a 6.6 percent increase from the USD 281.33 million registered in April 2025. The Democratic Republic of Congo accounted for the largest share (33.3 percent) of Uganda’s exports to the region during the month. This was followed by Kenya, South Sudan and Rwanda accounting for 27.9 percent, 16.5 percent and 10.9 percent of exports respectively during the month.
Similarly, merchandise imports grew by 2.1 percent from USD 397.05 million in April to USD 405.56 million in May 2025. On a country specific level, Tanzania and Kenya were Uganda’s largest import trade partners, accounting for USD 219.97 million and USD 171.60 million, respectively during the month.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
| Month on Month | Is a way to measure the percentage change in a value from one month to the next. |
| Year on Year | Is a method of comparing data for a specific period (e.g., a month or quarter) with the same period in the previous year. |
Online Resources
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The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Some Data for South Sudan, Somalia, Burundi and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for South Sudan, Burundi, Somalia and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Recent data for Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on trade with the EAC has a one-month lag.↩︎