April 2025
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2025-05-27
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FOB | Free on Board | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| SoShs | Somali Shilling | |
| SSP | South Sudanese Pound | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TzShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
Economic activity continued to improve, as reflected by the upward trends in high-frequency indicators such as the Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) and the Composite Index of Economic activity (CIEA).
The PMI rose to 55.3 in April 2025, up from 52.9 in March 2025, indicating improved business conditions driven by stronger consumer demand, rising new orders, and higher output. The CIEA rose to 170.6 in March 2025 from 169.7 in February 2025, indicating improved economic activity.
Similarly, perceptions about doing business remained positive and optimistic as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI), which remained above the 50-point threshold at 59.32 in April 2025 from 58.32 in March 2025. Optimism was mainly registered in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade.
Annual headline inflation edged up to 3.5 percent in April 2025 from 3.4 percent in March 2025, largely driven by a rise in core inflation to 3.9 percent from 3.6 percent. The rise in core inflation was mainly driven by an increase in prices for staple foods such as whole grain maize, maize flour, millet flour, rice, sugar and meats like beef, pork, and goat. Additionally, higher costs for services, particularly in hotels, restaurants, and accommodation, also contributed to the rise.
Financial Sector
The Ugandan Shilling was relatively stable in April 2025, depreciating slightly by 0.04 percent against the US Dollar to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,669.18, from Shs 3,667.63 in March 2025.
The Central Bank Rate (CBR) has remained unchanged at 9.75 percent in April 2025 to ensure price stability and keeping core inflation around the 5 percent target.
In March 2025, the average lending rate for Shilling-denominated loans fell to 17.74 percent from 18.76 percent in February 2025, largely due to increased lending to low-risk prime borrowers. Conversely, the lending rate for foreign currency loans rose slightly to 8.51 percent from 8.30 percent over the same period.
In April 2025, the government raised Shs. 767.55 billion through three domestic auctions of securities. Of this, Shs. 452.43 billion was used to refinance maturing securities, and Shs. 315.12 billion funded other budgetary needs.
Yields on the 91-day and 182-day Treasury Bills declined to 9.5 percent and 12.8 percent in April 2025, from 11.3 percent and 13.2 percent the previous month, respectively. On the other hand, yields for the 364-day Treasury bill edged upwards to 15.1 percent from 14.8 percent over the same period.
Yields on Treasury Bonds remained mostly stable compared to previous issuances. In April 2025, the 2-Year and 15-Year bonds held steady at 15.75 percent and 17.00 percent, respectively, while the 5-Year bond yield rose slightly to 16.5 percent from 16.25 percent in the previous issuance.
In March 2025, outstanding private sector credit rose by 0.8 percent to Shs 23,305.83 billion, up from Shs 23,121.38 billion in February 2025. This growth was driven by a 1.2 percent increase in foreign currency-denominated credit to Shs 6,783.69 billion and a 0.6 percent rise in Shilling-denominated credit to Shs 16,522.14 billion.
External Sector
Uganda’s merchandise exports increased by 40.6 percent, reaching USD 899.10 million in March 2025, up from USD 639.63 million in March 2024, mainly due to higher earnings from coffee, cocoa beans, mineral products, sugar, and fish and its products. On a month-on-month basis, exports grew by 7.3 percent, from USD 838.18 million in February 2025 to USD 899.10 million in March 2025.
Merchandise imports grew by 7.3 percent, from USD 1,037.21 million in March 2024 to USD 1,112.72 million in March 2025, mainly due to higher project-related government imports and non-oil private sector imports. Similarly, the import bill rose by 25.4 percent on a monthly basis, from USD 887.07 million in February 2025 to USD 1,112.72 million in March 2025.
As a result, Uganda’s trade deficit with the Rest of the World narrowed by 46.3 percent year-on-year, decreasing from USD 397.58 million in March 2024 to USD 213.63 million in March 2025, due to the strong growth in exports, which outpaced the rise in imports. However, on a month-on-month basis, the trade deficit widened sharply by 337.0 percent, as the rise in the import bill exceeded the growth in exports during the month.
Fiscal Sector
In April 2025, government operations resulted in a fiscal deficit of Shs 1,807.72 billion, surpassing the projected deficit of Shs 1,213.07 billion. This was mainly attributed to lower-than-expected tax and non-tax revenue collections, coupled with higher government expenditure during the month.
Tax revenue collections amounted to Shs 2,180.09 billion, falling short of the Shs 2,279.51 billion target by Shs 99.42 billion, as all three major tax categories underperformed. Non-tax revenues totalled Shs 186.02 billion, below the target of Shs 198.69 billion by Shs 12.67 billion, reflecting a performance rate of 93.6 percent.
Government expenses reached Shs 3,169.35 billion, exceeding the planned Shs 2,866.75 billion by 10.6 percent. The overspending was largely driven by increased activity at the start of the fourth quarter of the financial year, as MDAs intensified the implementation of their work plans and absorbed unutilized funds from earlier quarters.
During April 2025, spending on non-financial assets totalled Shs 1,067.4 billion, exceeding the planned Shs 915.98 billion by 16.5 percent. This was mainly due to the completion of procurement processes initiated in previous quarters but executed in the fourth quarter. Overall government spending stood at Shs 4,236.71 billion, surpassing the planned Shs 3,782.74 billion.
East African Community2
In April 2025, annual headline inflation varied across the EAC member countries. It edged upwards in Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and South Sudan to 3.5 percent, 4.1 percent, 6.3 percent and 16 percent from 3.4 percent, 3.6 percent, 4.9 percent and 14.1 percent respectively, driven by higher food and non-alcoholic beverage prices in Kenya, Rwanda and South Sudan, and increased core inflation in Uganda.
In contrast, it declined in Tanzania to 3.2 percent from 3.3 percent mainly driven by lower food and beverage prices. Burundi also registered a decline in annual headline inflation to 39.1 percent from 40.9 percent, respectively, for the year ending March 2025. In April 2025, the currencies for Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania registered depreciation against the US Dollar. The Ugandan Shilling depreciated by 0.04 percent while the Rwandan Franc, Burundian Franc, Kenyan Shilling, and Tanzanian Shilling depreciated by 0.32 Percent, 0.16 percent, 0.16 percent and 1.69 percent, respectively.
In March 2025, Uganda traded at a deficit of USD 152.97 million with the EAC Partner States, which was significantly higher than the trade deficit of USD 21.73 million registered the previous month. The higher deficit was attributed to a 46.5 percent increase in the import bill which was coupled with a 12.3 percent reduction in export receipts during the month.
1 Real Sector Developments
1.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation increased to 3.5 percent in April 2025 from 3.4 percent recorded for the previous month. The increase was mainly on account of an increase in core inflation to 3.9 percent in April 2025 from 3.6 percent the previous month. Annual Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) and food crop & related items inflation, on the other hand, declined to 0 percent and 2.4 percent in April 2025 from 0.4 percent and 3.1 percent respectively in the previous month.
Annual core inflation increased to 3.9 percent in April 2025 from 3.6 percent the previous month. This was on account of an increase in prices of some foods such as whole grain maize, maize flour, millet flour, as well as meats like beef, pork and goat’s meat which recorded price increases of 10.1 percent, 5.7 percent and 9.6 percent in April compared to 4.2 percent, 3.2 percent, and 2.7 percent, respectively, in the previous month. The increase was also due to a rise in the costs of services like hotel, restaurant and accommodation as annual services inflation increased to 5 percent in April 2025 from 4.9 percent the previous month.
Annual food crop & related items inflation declined to 2.4 percent in April 2025 from 3.1 percent the previous month. This was attributed to a decline in prices of fruits and vegetables like pineapples, passion fruits, watermelons and onions, when compared to the same month of the previous financial year. There was also a decline in price increment for other foods like cow peas, garlic, yam, fresh leaf vegetables and oranges.
Annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities inflation recorded 0.0 percent in April 2025 from 0.4 percent recorded the previous month. This was partly due to a further decline in fuel prices such as petrol, diesel, liquefied gas and paraffin which were recorded at -8.6 percent, -8.1 percent, -6.1 percent, -3.9 percent respectively from -8.3 percent, -7.4 percent, -5.2 percent and -3.4 percent respectively in previous month. This is attributed to the decline in global fuel prices and the government’s strategic intervention through the Uganda National Oil Company. The decline was also attributed to a reduction in electricity tariffs by 5.7 percent in April 2025 from 2 percent the previous month. This followed a decision by the Electricity Regulatory Authority to further reduce electricity tariffs in a bid to reduce electricity costs for manufacturers.
1.2 Economic Activity
Overall economic activity and business outlook continued to improve in April, as reflected by the upward trends in high-frequency indicators such as the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) and Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI). Similarly, perceptions about doing business as reflected by the Business Tendency Index (BTI), remained positive and optimistic.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity had an upward trend, increasing to 170.6 in March 2025 from 169.7 the previous month, signaling an improvement in economic activity. Growth in the CIEA was majorly attributed to increased activity in the agriculture, services and industry sectors.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index increased to 55.3 in April 2025 from 52.9 in March 2025, signaling an improvement in business conditions during the month. This increase was supported by strengthened consumer demand and a resultant expansion in new orders and output. Additionally, firm employment increased in line with higher output expectations for the year ahead.
1.2.1 Business Perceptions3
The Business Tendency Index (BTI) indicated increased investor optimism in April 2025, increasing to 59.32 in from 58.32 the previous month. Investors were more optimistic about the business environment, especially in the construction, manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors. This is shown by the BTI which remained above the 50-mark threshold. Key indicators measured by the index show that the business community was more optimistic about the current business and financial situation.
2 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Exchange Rate Movements
The Ugandan Shilling was relatively stable in April 2025, depreciating slightly by 0.04 percent against the US Dollar to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,669.18, from Shs 3,667.63 in March 2025. The slight depreciation of the shilling was mainly explained by strong dollar demand from the corporate sector that outpaced dollar supply from portfolio investors and Foreign Direct Investments particularly to Uganda’s oil sector.
2.2 Interest Rate Movements
For the seventh month in a row, the Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 9.75 percent. This rate is deemed sufficient to maintain price stability and to keep core inflation around the 5 percent target.
2.2.1 Lending Rates4
The weighted average lending rate for Shilling-denominated loans declined to 17.74 percent in March 2025 from 18.76 percent in February 2025, partly on account of more lending to prime borrowers during the month who are considered less risky and hence borrow at lower lending rates.
On the other hand, the weighted average lending rate for foreign currency-denominated credit rose to 8.51 percent in March 2025 compared to 8.30 percent in February 2025.
2.3 Government Securities
In April 2025, Shs. 767.55 billion was raised from three auctions of government securities on the domestic market. Of the total amount raised, Shs. 452.43 billion was used for refinancing of maturing securities, while Shs. 315.12 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2023/24 | 15,021.3 | 6,662.8 | 8,358.5 |
| Q3 2024/25 | 6,586.8 | 3,490.8 | 3,096.1 |
| April 2025 | 767.6 | 315.1 | 452.4 |
| FY 2024/25 to date | 17,227.2 | 8,638.5 | 8,588.8 |
2.4 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills for the 91-day and 182-day tenors dropped to the levels recorded in April 2024. Yields on the 91-day and 182-day tenors declined to 9.5 percent and 12.8 percent in April 2025, from 11.3 percent and 13.2 percent the previous month, respectively. On the other hand, yields for the 364-day Treasury bill edged upwards to 15.1 percent from 14.8 percent over the period as shown in Figure 9.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid-to-cover ratio of 1.67 in April 2025.
2.4.1 Yields on Treasury Bonds
In April, 2025, yields for the Treasury Bonds largely remained stable in comparison to the rates registered in the previous issuance of similar securities. In April 2025, yields for the 2-Year and 15-Year tenor bonds remained unchanged at 15.75 percent and 17.00 percent, while the yields for the 5-Year tenor bond slightly edged upwards to 16.5 percent from 16.25 percent.
2.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit5
The stock of outstanding private sector credit grew by 0.8 percent to Shs 23,305.83 billion in March 2025 from Shs 23,121.38 billion recorded in February 2025. This growth was mainly driven by the increase in foreign currency-denominated credit, which grew by 1.2 percent to Shs 6,783.69 billion in March 2025 from Shs 6,702.49 billion in February 2025. Similarly, the stock of Shilling-denominated credit grew by 0.6 percent to Shs 16,522.14 billion in March 2025 from Shs 16,418.89 billion in February 2025.
2.6 Credit Extensions6
The value of credit approved increased by 16.9 percent to Shs 1,563.78 billion in March 2025 from Shs 1,337.86 billion approved in February 2025. This reflected an overall increase in credit extended to the private sector during the month. As was the case in February 2025, personal and household loans accounted for the largest share of credit extended, representing 34.8 percent (Shs 544.95 billion) of total approved credit. Other notable recipients included Building, Mortgage, Construction and real estate at 19.7 percent (Shs 307.90 billion), trade at 15.1 percent (Shs 235.48 billion), and manufacturing at 9.2 percent (Shs 144.07 billion).
3 External Sector Developments 7
3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance
Compared to March 2024, Uganda’s trade deficit with the Rest of the World narrowed by USD 183.95 million (46.3 percent), declining from USD 397.58 million to USD 213.63 million in March 2025. This improvement was driven by a strong 40.6 percent growth in export earnings, which more than offset the 7.3 percent increase in the import bill during the month.
However, on a month-on-month basis, the trade deficit widened by USD 164.74 million (337.0 percent), driven by a 25.4 percent increase in the import bill, which outpaced the 7.3 percent growth in export earnings during the month.
3.2 Merchandise Exports 8
Uganda’s merchandise exports grew by 40.6 percent, from USD 639.63 million recorded in March 2024 to USD 899.10 million registered in March 2025. This growth was mainly attributed to higher export earnings from coffee, cocoa beans, mineral products, sugar and fish & its products.
Notably, Uganda’s coffee exports surged by USD 133.89 million (206.8 percent), increasing from USD 64.74 million in March 2024 to USD 198.62 million in March 2025. This growth was attributed to higher international coffee prices and increased export volumes. Global coffee prices rose from USD 3.27/kg in March 2024 to US$ 5.15/kg in March 2025, largely due to the dry conditions in Brazil and Vietnam (the world’s largest producers of Arabica and Robusta coffee), which fueled market expectations of tighter global supply. Uganda’s export volumes also increased from 334,556 to 642,981 sixty-kilogram bags, supported by higher yields for both Robusta and Arabica coffee, partly reflecting the Government’s strategic efforts to boost coffee production.
Similarly, in March 2025, export earnings from cocoa beans rose by 71.7 percent, from USD 39.27 million to USD 67.42 million, while mineral products increased by 42.4 percent, from USD 270.42 million to USD 385.08 million over the same period. Fish and its products also registered growth of 22.5 percent, increasing from USD 9.82 million to USD 12.04 million, while sugar exports grew by 31.2 percent, from USD 11.73 million to USD 15.39 million.
Month-on-month comparison showed that Uganda’s merchandise exports grew by 7.3 percent, from USD 838.18 million in February 2025 to USD 899.10 million in March 2025. This growth was primarily driven by higher earnings from coffee, mineral products, and maize, among others. Coffee export earnings rose by 18.5 percent from USD 167.68 million in February 2025 to USD 198.62 million in March 2025, supported by increased export volumes and higher global coffee prices.
Italy remained Uganda’s leading coffee export destination in March 2025, accounting for 38.43 percent of the total exports. It was followed by India (8.92 percent), Germany (6.89 percent), Spain (6.06 percent) and Sudan (5.72 percent).
| Product | Mar-2024 | Feb-2025 | Mar-2025 |
Mar-2025 vs Mar-2024 % Change |
Mar-2025 vs Feb-2025 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 639.63 | 838.18 | 899.1 | 40.56 | 7.27 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 64.74 | 167.68 | 198.62 | 206.82 | 18.46 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.33 | 0.56 | 0.64 | 95.03 | 15.69 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 3.27 | 5.03 | 5.15 | 57.32 | 2.39 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 525.47 | 613.93 | 644.25 | 22.61 | 4.94 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 270.42 | 318.71 | 385.08 | 42.4 | 20.83 |
| Cotton | 3.54 | 2.62 | 2.2 | -37.89 | -15.82 |
| Tea | 4.28 | 4.07 | 3.83 | -10.52 | -5.81 |
| Tobacco | 10.34 | 17.05 | 2.84 | -72.58 | -83.37 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 9.82 | 11.95 | 12.04 | 22.53 | 0.72 |
| Simsim | 5.49 | 6.58 | 6.06 | 10.52 | -7.8 |
| Maize | 6.53 | 4.51 | 8.64 | 32.35 | 91.47 |
| Beans | 4.14 | 3.88 | 3.54 | -14.47 | -8.74 |
| Flowers | 4.98 | 5.14 | 4.98 | 0.05 | -3.07 |
| ICBT Exports | 49.43 | 56.58 | 56.22 | 13.73 | -0.63 |
3.3 Destination of Exports9
In March 2025, the Middle East remained Uganda’s largest export destination, accounting for 37.1 percent of Uganda’s exports. At country country-specific level within the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates dominated, receiving 97.5 percent of Uganda’s exports to the region.
The East African Community (EAC) was the second-largest destination, accounting for 20.1 percent of total exports, followed by the European Union (18.7 percent) and Asia (16.9 percent). Within the EAC, Democratic Republic of Congo emerged as the largest importer of Uganda’s merchandise, taking up 43.3 percent of the total exports. This was followed by South Sudan at 32.3 percent and Kenya at 15.0 percent.
3.4 Merchandise Imports10
In comparison to the same month the previous year, Uganda’s merchandise imports grew by 7.3 percent from USD 1,037.21 million in March 2024 to USD 1,112.72 million in March 2025. This increase was primarily attributed to higher project-related government imports and non-oil private sector imports. Key private sector import categories that recorded growth included mineral products (excluding petroleum), plastics, rubber & related products; base metals & their products; textiles & textile products, as well as prepared foodstuffs, beverages, and tobacco.
Similarly, the import bill increased by 25.4 percent on a monthly basis, from USD 887.07 million in February 2025 to USD 1,112.72 million in March 2025. This increase was mainly driven by the rise in both project-related government imports and non-oil private sector imports, particularly mineral products (excluding petroleum), prepared foodstuffs, beverages & tobacco, plastics, rubber & related products, as well as chemicals & related products.
3.5 Origin of Imports 11
In March 2025, Asia remained Uganda’s largest source of imports, contributing 33.3 percent of the total import bill. Within the region, China and India were the dominant trading partners, accounting for 55.3 percent and 20.5 percent of Uganda’s imports from Asia, respectively.
Other notable sources of Uganda’s imports were the East African Community (EAC), the Rest of Africa, and the Middle East, which contributed 30.0 percent, 16.3 percent, and 13.2 percent of total imports, respectively. Within the EAC, Tanzania and Kenya were the primary sources of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 57.9 percent and 38.2 percent of the imports from the region, respectively.
3.6 Trade Balance by Region
During the month of March 2025, Uganda registered trade surpluses with the Middle East, European Union and Rest of Europe amounting to USD 186.30 million, USD 117.70 million and USD 0.18 million respectively.
On the other hand, trade deficits were recorded with Asia (USD 219.51 million), the EAC (USD 152.97 million), and Rest of Africa (USD 146.02 million).
| Region | Mar 2024 | Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 143.85 | 182.02 | 186.3 |
| European Union | 14.94 | 64.56 | 117.7 |
| Rest of Europe | -1.38 | 12.43 | 0.18 |
| Rest of Africa | -98.54 | -92.78 | -146.02 |
| EAC | -188.31 | -21.73 | -152.97 |
| Asia | -254.83 | -205.19 | -219.51 |
| Other Countries | -13.32 | 11.79 | 0.69 |
4 Fiscal Developments12
Government operations during April 2025 resulted in a fiscal deficit (net borrowing) of Shs 1,807.72 billion. This was higher than the projected fiscal deficit of Shs 1,213.07 billion for the month on account of lower than targeted tax and non-tax revenues, coupled with higher than planned expenditure.
During the month, tax revenue collections amounted to Shs 2,180.09 billion against a target of Shs 2,279.51 billion, implying a shortfall of Shs 99.42 billion. On the other hand, total expenditure amounted to Shs 4,236.71 billion against a plan for the month of Shs 3,782.74 billion.
The table below shows the summary of fiscal operations for April 2025 in billion Shillings.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 2,569.67 | 2,428.99 | 94.5% | -140.68 |
| Taxes | 2,279.51 | 2,180.09 | 95.6% | -99.42 |
| Grants | 91.47 | 62.87 | 68.7% | -28.6 |
| Project support | 91.47 | 62.87 | 68.7% | -28.6 |
| Other revenue (Non-tax revenue) | 198.69 | 186.02 | 93.6% | -12.67 |
| Expense | 2,866.75 | 3,169.35 | 110.6% | 302.6 |
| Compensation of employees | 379.1 | 408.06 | 107.6% | 28.96 |
| Wages And Salaries | 271.8 | 279.89 | 103.0% | 8.1 |
| Allowances | 58.28 | 78.21 | 134.2% | 19.94 |
| Employers’ social contributions | 49.02 | 49.96 | 101.9% | 0.93 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 589.97 | 744.46 | 126.2% | 154.49 |
| Interest | 924.4 | 921.89 | 99.7% | -2.51 |
| o/w: domestic | 895.07 | 895.79 | 100.1% | 0.72 |
| o/w: foreign | 29.33 | 26.1 | 89.0% | -3.22 |
| Grants | 796.08 | 850.42 | 106.8% | 54.35 |
| o/w: local governments | __ | __ | __ | 0 |
| Social benefits | 37.74 | 37.04 | 98.1% | -0.7 |
| Other expense | 139.47 | 207.47 | 148.8% | 68 |
| Gross operating balance | -297.08 | -740.36 | 249.2% | -443.28 |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 915.98 | 1,067.36 | 116.5% | 151.37 |
| Net lending/borrowing (surplus/deficit) | -1,213.07 | -1,807.72 | __ | __ |
4.1 Revenues
4.1.1 Tax Revenues
During April 2025, tax revenue collections totaled to Shs 2,180.09 billion against a target of Shs 2,279.51 billion which translated into a shortfall of Shs 99.42 billion as all the three major tax categories registered shortfalls in varying degrees.
Taxes on international trade transactions registered the biggest shortfall of Shs 53.06 billion as collections amounted to Shs 863.35 billion against a target of Shs 916.42 billion. The main cause of the underperformance in international trade taxes was lower than projected fuel imports, which affected petroleum duty collections causing them to perform at only 76.8 percent of what had been projected for the month.
Consumption taxes (indirect domestic taxes) amounted to Shs 629.86 billion against a target of Shs 664.86 billion, translating into a shortfall of Shs 35.00 billion for the month of April 2025. Whereas Value Added Tax (VAT) accounted for most of this shortfall (Shs 24.71 billion), excise duty also contributed Shs 10.29 billion to the shortfall. Some of the goods which recorded lower than projected collections included soft drinks, cooking oil, spirits/waragi and sugar among others. Additionally, sectors including construction, real estate, trade, and hotels & restaurants registered lower than anticipated VAT during the month.
Direct domestic taxes (income taxes) registered the least shortfall in April 2025, buoyed by the strong performance of the corporation tax, which was above its target for the month by Shs 51.48 billion. However, the underperformance of PAYE and rental income taxes, amongst others, more than offset the surplus in corporation tax, resulting in an overall shortfall of Shs 11.95 billion for direct domestic taxes.
4.1.2 Other Revenues
During April 2025, non-tax revenue collection amounted to Shs 186.02 billion against a target of Shs 198.69 billion, implying a 93.6 percent performance and a shortfall of Shs 12.67 billion.
4.2 Expenses
In April 2025, expenses by the Government totaled Shs 3,169.35 billion. This was 10.6 percent higher than the Shs 2,866.75 billion initially planned for the month. The major reasons for the higher than planned expenses for the month included;
Most MDAs were (and still are) working towards finalizing their workplans and thus using more funds, including unspent funds from the previous quarters.
The supplementary budget that was passed in Quarter three of the financial year increased funds available for spending for all the remaining months of the financial year. This therefore implies that actual expenditure would be higher than the initial plans for the months which were made per the original approved budget.
Consequently, all the expense subcategories were above their respective initial plans for April 2025.
4.3 Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Similarly, Government spent a total of Shs 1,067.4 billion on acquisition of non-financial assets which was 16.5 percent higher than the Shs 915.98 billion that was initially planned for the month. This was mainly due to procurement processes for various projects having been finalized in the previous quarters paving way for quicker execution in Q4, starting with April 2025.
In totality, Government expenditure (expenses plus net acquisition of non-financial assets) amounted to Shs 4,236.71 billion against an initial plan of Shs 3,782.74 billion.
5 East African Community Developments
5.1 EAC Inflation13
Annual headline inflation trended differently in the various EAC partner states in April 2025. Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda and South Sudan recorded higher inflation rates of 3.5 percent, 4.1 percent, 6.6 percent and 16 percent from 3.4 percent, 3.6 percent, 4.9 percent and 14.1 percent, respectively, recorded in the previous month. The price increase in Kenya, South Sudan and Rwanda was primarily driven by the rise in the price of food and non-alcoholic beverages, while that of Uganda was driven by the increased core inflation.
Conversely, in April 2025, annual headline inflation in Tanzania and Burundi declined to 3.2 percent and 39.1 percent from 3.3 percent and 40.9 percent respectively, recorded the previous month.The decline in Tanzania’s inflation is attributed to the lower prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages .
5.2 EAC Exchange Rates14
In April 2025, the currencies for Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania depreciated against the United States Dollar. The Ugandan, Kenyan, and Tanzanian Shillings depreciated by 0.04 percent, 0.16 percent, and 1.69 percent, respectively, while the Rwandan and Burundian Francs posted depreciation rates of 0.32 percent and 0.16 percent, respectively, against the US dollar. This overall depreciation was attributed to the global strengthening of the US dollar.
5.3 Trade Balance with EAC
In March 2025, Uganda traded at a deficit of USD 152.97 million with the EAC Partner States, which was significantly higher than the trade deficit of USD 21.73 million registered the previous month. The higher deficit was attributed to an increase in the import bill coupled with a reduction in export receipts during the month.
Imports from the region increased by 46.5 percent to USD 333.75 million in March 2024 from USD 227.82 million the previous month. On the other hand, exports to the region declined by 12.3 percent from USD 206.09 million to USD 180.78 million over the same period.
At a country-specific level, Uganda registered trade deficits equivalent to USD 185.34 million, USD 100.42 million, USD 0.27 million with Tanzania, Kenya and Burundi, respectively. Conversely, trade surpluses were registered with D.R.C (USD 72.65 million), South Sudan (USD 56.81 million) and Rwanda (USD 3.59 million).
In comparison to the same month the previous year, Uganda’s trade deficit decreased from USD 188.31 million in March 2024 to USD 152.97 million in March 2025. This decline was driven by a 12.5 percent decrease in the import bill (from USD 381.35 million to USD 333.75 million), which more than offset the 6.4 percent decline in export earnings (from USD 193.04 million to USD 180.78 million).
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
| Month on Month | Is a way to measure the percentage change in a value from one month to the next. |
| Year on Year | Is a method of comparing data for a specific period (e.g., a month or quarter) with the same period in the previous year. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and the External Sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on Inflation for Burundi and South Sudan is available with a lag↩︎
Readings above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook↩︎
Data comes with a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on Credit Extensions has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on External Sector Developments come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for South Sudan is available with a lag.↩︎
Data for South Sudan, Somalia and DRC is available with a lag.↩︎