December 2024
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2025-01-20
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| DRC | Democratic Republic of Congo | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FOB | Free on Board | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TzShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
The economy in quarter one of the 2024/25 fiscal year demonstrated robust growth, with Quarterly GDP expanding by 6.7 percent compared to 5.6 percent recorded in the same quarter of the previous fiscal year. The major drivers of this growth were food crop production in the agriculture sector, as well as agro-processing and construction in the industry sector. The services sector also registered growth mainly on account of increase in wholesale trade and transport activities.
Economic growth prospects were further supported by the high frequency indicators of economic activity which show continued improvement in economic activity in the months leading to December 2024. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) posted a 53.1 reading in December, signaling an improvement in business conditions for the private sector compared to the previous month.
Similarly, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) grew by 0.9 percent to 170.65 in November 2024 showing increased economic activity compared to the previous month, mainly on account of growth in the private sector credit, increased Government expenditure, and growth in tax collections.
Sentiments about doing business in the private sector remained positive, as indicated by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which was recorded at 59.64 in December 2024. Optimism was mainly expressed by investors in the agriculture and wholesale trade sectors.
Annual headline inflation in December 2024 increased to 3.3 percent, from 2.9 percent recorded in the previous month. This increase was driven by the pick-up in core inflation as prices for some services like transportation and processed foods increased as a result of increased demand during the festive season. Despite the increase in December 2024, inflation still remains within the Bank of Uganda target of 5.0 percent.
Financial Sector
During December 2024 the Ugandan Shilling traded at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,664.08 per Dollar, a 0.4 percent appreciation compared to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,678.65 per Dollar the previous month. This was partly attributed to increased capital and remittances inflows during the month.
The weighted average lending rate for the Shilling denominated credit edged downwards to 18.08 percent in November from 19.43 percent in October 2024, partly on account of the easing monetary policy stance by the Central bank in the recent months.
Consequently, the stock of outstanding private sector credit grew by 2.6 percent from Shs 22,270.87 billion in October to Shs 22,845.10 billion in November 2024. This followed higher disbursements for credit compared to the previous month.
In December 2024, Shs. 410.41 billion was raised from two Treasury Bill auctions held in the domestic market. The amount raised from the domestic market was used for refinancing of maturing securities.
Yields on Treasury Bills for the 91-day and 182-day tenors edged downwards to 10.4 percent and 13.4 percent from 11.6 percent and 13.6 percent respectively while the annualized yield for the 364 day tenor slightly increased to 15.0 percent from 14.9 percent the previous month.
External Sector
Compared to the same month of last year, Uganda’s export earnings grew by 8.9 percent to USD 672.62 million in November 2024 from USD 617.23 million recorded in November 2023. This growth was mainly on account of higher earnings from coffee and mineral products.
Similarly, Uganda’s import bill also grew by 19.1 percent from USD 916.78 million in November 2023 to USD 1,092.03 in November 2024. This was on account of increased value and volumes of non-oil imports over this period.
However, a comparison between October 2024 and November 2024 show that Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed by 21.3 percent from USD 533.05 million to USD 419.41 million respectively. This was as a result of greater decline in imports compared to the exports between the two months.
Fiscal Sector
In December 2024, Government operations resulted into a fiscal surplus of Shs 737.17 billion, surpassing the projected surplus of Shs 67.59 billion for the month. This was on account of higher than targeted tax revenues and lower than planned government expenses during the month.
Tax revenues amounted to Shs 3,625.08 billion against a target of Shs 3,314.35 billion, posting a surplus of Shs 310.73 billion. This was mainly due to higher than projected profitability amongst leading taxpayer firms, increased economic activity associated with the festive period and Government’s clearance of its outstanding tax obligations from the previous months.
Government expenses totaled Shs 2,587.50 billion against projected expenses of Shs 2,993.38 billion as both compensation of employees and purchase of goods and services were lower than initially planned for the month.
In December 2024, inflation increased across most EAC partner states as prices for food items and transport costs picked up before and during the festive period. The annual headline inflation rates for Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya increased to 6.8 percent, 3.1 percent and 3.0 percent from 5.0 percent, 3.0 percent and 2.8 percent in November and December 2024 respectively.
Whereas currencies of most East African Partner States were relatively stable, the Tanzanian Shilling registered a major appreciation of 7.2 percent in December 2024. This appreciation is mainly explained by improved tourism receipts, and increased Dollar inflows resulting from the US Federal Reserve lowering interest rates, leading to more capital inflows to frontier markets like some of the EAC partner states.
In November 2024, Uganda traded at a deficit worth USD 73.64 million with the rest of the EAC partner states compared to the USD 72.17 million deficit recorded the previous month. This slight widening of the deficit was a result of a sharper decline in export earnings compared to the decline in imports from the region during this period.
1 Real Sector Developments
1.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation for the year ended December 2024 increased to 3.3 percent compared to 2.9 percent registered in November 2024 mainly driven by an increase in annual Core inflation over the period.
In spite of the slight increase in December 2024, annual inflation remained within the 5.0 percent target in the calendar year 2024. Annual headline inflation averaged at 3.3 percent compared to an average of 5.4 percent recorded in calendar year 2023. This was mainly due to favorable weather conditions during the year which led to bumper harvests and therefore lower food prices, a generally stable exchange rate throughout the year and effective monetary policy management.
Figure 1 below shows the movements of annual headline and core inflation over the past 13 months.
Annual core inflation increased to 3.9 percent in December 2024, compared to 3.8 percent the previous month. This increase was driven by higher prices for some processed products like powdered milk, biscuits, beer, pancakes and various types of chicken (broilers, kroilers, and traditionally bred hens) during the month following increased demand related to the festive period.
In December 2024, annual foods and related items inflation was recorded at minus 0.7 percent, compared to minus 4.0 percent the previous month, implying a slowdown in the rate at which prices for food crops such as beans, matooke, onions, tomatoes among others were declining.
Annual Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) inflation further declined to 1.0 percent in December 2024 from 2.2 percent in November 2024. This was mainly on account of a further drop in the prices for liquid energy fuels particularly petrol and diesel during the month. In December, pump prices for petrol and diesel averaged Shs 4,984 and Shs 4,625 per litre compared to an average of Shs 5,105 and Shs 4,691 a litre, respectively in November 2024.
The decline in liquid energy fuel prices follows favorable global oil market conditions and Government of Uganda’s efforts to increase efficiency in the fuel supply chain through the Uganda National Oil Company (UNOC)’s participation in the importation of fuel.
1.2 Economic Activity
The high frequency indicators of economic activity have shown continued improvement in the level of economic activity since the start of the Financial Year 2024/25. This is further supported by the quarterly GDP which expanded by 6.7 percent in quarter one (Q1) compared to 5.6 percent recorded in the same quarter of the previous financial year.
Indeed, since the start of FY 2024/25, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA)4 has exhibited steady growth, averaging 0.4 percent over this period. In November 2024, the index grew by 0.9 percent to 170.65 from 169.07 in October 2024, thus showing an increase in economic activity between the two months.The growth in the index was partly driven by growth in the private sector credit, increased Government expenditure, and growth in tax collections.
The Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) posted a 53.1 reading for the month of December, remaining above the 50 no-change mark and thereby signaling further improvements in business conditions in the economy. Firms secured new customers leading to further increases in both new orders and output across each of the five sectors5 covered by the survey during the month.
However, compared to November 2024, the index declined on account of firms experiencing increased production costs during the month.
1.2.1 Business Perceptions6
Sentiments about doing business in the economy remained positive during December 2024 as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which remained above the 50-no change mark. The index remained relatively stable, reducing marginally from 59.83 in November to 59.64 in December 2024. This was mainly influenced by the present business and financial situation which respondents stated to be favorable, increased number of employees and better access to credit over the next 3 months.
On a sectoral basis, investors were most optimistic about prospects in the sectors of agriculture and wholesale trade during the month.
2 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Exchange Rate Movements
In December 2024, the Ugandan Shilling strengthened against the United States Dollar, posting an appreciation of 0.4 percent. The Shilling traded at an average midrate of Shs 3,664.08 per Dollar in December 2024 compared to Shs 3,678.65 per Dollar in November 2024. This performance was partly attributed to increased remittances inflows during the month as Ugandans working abroad sent funds back to their families for the festive season among others.
Similarly, the Shilling continued to appreciate against the Pound Sterling and the Euro for the fourth month in a row. In December, the Shilling appreciated by 1.2 percent and 1.8 percent against the Pound and the Euro, respectively.
Over the 12 months leading to December 2024, the shilling remained relatively stable, appreciating by an average of 0.3 percent against the US Dollar. This stability was mainly due to a combination of factors including an effective monetary policy stance, increased capital inflows mainly towards the oil and gas sector, improved export earnings particularly from coffee and steady remittances inflows during the calendar year 2024.
2.2 Interest Rate Movements
The Central Bank Rate (CBR) was maintained at 9.75 percent in December 2024 as it was deemed sufficient to support price stability and the efforts being made towards fostering sustainable economic growth.
2.2.1 Lending Rates7
The weighted average lending rate for the Shilling denominated credit edged downwards to 18.08 percent in November 2024 from 19.43 percent in October 2024, reflecting an improvement in borrowing costs in the economy. The decline in rates is partly on account of the gradual monetary policy easing being undertaken by the Central bank as well as strong economic performance over the past few months.
On the other hand, the weighted average lending rate for foreign exchange denominated credit slightly increased to 8.94 percent from 8.63 percent over the same period.
2.3 Government Securities
In December 2024, Shs. 410.41 billion was raised from two Treasury Bill auctions held in the domestic market. All the amount raised from the domestic market was used for refinancing of maturing securities.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2023/24 | 15,021.3 | 6,662.8 | 8,358.5 |
| Q2 2024/25 | 4,056.7 | 2,213.7 | 1,843 |
| November 2024 | 1,080.6 | 434.4 | 646.3 |
| December 2024 | 410.4 | -94.1 | 504.5 |
| FY 2024/25 to date | 9,872.9 | 4,832.6 | 5,040.3 |
2.4 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills for the 91-day and 182-day tenors edged downwards to 10.4 percent and 13.4 percent in December 2024 from 11.6 percent and 13.6 percent in November 2024, respectively . The annualized yield for the 364-day tenor slightly increased to 15.0 percent from 14.9 percent over the same period.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio of 1.97 during the month under review.
2.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit8
The stock of outstanding private sector credit increased by 2.6 percent from Shs 22,270.87 billion in October 2024 to Shs 22,845.10 billion in November 2024. This followed increased credit disbursements to the private sector particularly to trade, manufacturing and transport & communication sectors in the month of November.
Of the total stock of private sector credit in November 2024, Shs 6,629.25 billion was foreign currency denominated credit while Shs 16,215.85 billion was Shillings denominated credit.
2.6 Credit Extensions9
The value of credit approved for disbursement in November 2024 amounted to Shs 2,286.02 billion against applications valued at Shs 3,206.78 billion, implying a 71.3 percent approval rate for the month.
In contrast to October 2024 where personal and household loans accounted for the biggest share of credit approved, manufacturing accounted for 22.3 percent (the biggest share) of the total credit approved for disbursement during the month. Other notable recipients of credit approved during the month were personal and household loans accounting for 21.5 percent, transport & communication services and trade accounting for 18.6 percent and 16.5 percent, respectively, of the total credit approved for disbursement in November 2024.
3 External Sector Developments 10
3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance
During the month of November 2024, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit with the rest of the world decreased by 21.3 percent to USD 419.41 million from USD 533.05 million in October 2024. This was due to a decline in the import bill, which more than offset the decrease in the export receipts during the month.
In comparison to the same month of the previous year, the merchandise trade deficit increased by 40.0 percent, from USD 299.55 million in November 2023 to USD 419.41 million in November 2024 driven by an increase in the import bill that outpaced the rise in export earnings over period.
3.2 Merchandise Exports 11
Compared to November 2023, export earnings increased by 9.0 percent from USD 617.23 million to USD 672.62 million in November 2024. This was mainly driven by an increase in earnings from coffee and mineral products during the year.
The increase in the value of Uganda’s coffee exports was primarily due to the increase in global coffee prices as a result of dry conditions in Brazil and Vietnam that limited exports from the two countries. As a result, Uganda’s coffee export earnings increased by 54.1 percent in November 2024 to USD 108.91 million from USD 70.68 million in November 2023.
On the other hand, export earnings in November 2024, reduced by 9.7 percent to USD 672.62 million from USD 744.86 million in October 2024. This decline was mainly attributed to lower export earnings from coffee and mineral products, among others during the month.
Coffee export earnings declined by 21.7 percent to USD 108.91 million in November 2024, from USD 139.05 million in October 2024. This was due to a reduction in coffee export volumes and a reduction in the international coffee prices between the two months. The reduced volumes signal the start of the biannual off year cycle.
| Product | Nov-2023 | Oct-2024 | Nov-2024 |
Nov-2024 vs Nov-2023 % Change |
Nov-2024 vs Oct-2024 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 617.23 | 744.86 | 672.62 | 8.97 | -9.7 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 70.68 | 139.05 | 108.91 | 54.08 | -21.67 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.42 | 0.5 | 0.4 | -5.73 | -19.38 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 2.77 | 4.66 | 4.53 | 63.45 | -2.84 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 498.88 | 555.27 | 512.23 | 2.68 | -7.75 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 258.79 | 317.76 | 268.08 | 3.59 | -15.64 |
| Cotton | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1,425.06 | 18.98 |
| Tea | 5.96 | 4.49 | 5.58 | -6.32 | 24.33 |
| Tobacco | 5.01 | 7.17 | 5.14 | 2.56 | -28.34 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 12.33 | 13.14 | 13.54 | 9.87 | 3.08 |
| Simsim | 1.85 | 2.07 | 3.15 | 70.48 | 51.99 |
| Maize | 23.05 | 6.03 | 4.86 | -78.93 | -19.47 |
| Beans | 12.4 | 2.41 | 3.42 | -72.39 | 42.05 |
| Flowers | 4.19 | 4.56 | 4.97 | 18.65 | 9.02 |
| ICBT Exports | 47.68 | 50.54 | 51.48 | 7.99 | 1.86 |
3.3 Destination of Exports12
The Middle East remained the biggest destination of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 35.4 percent of the total exports in November 2024. Within the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates accounted for 97.6 percent of Uganda’s exports to the region.
Other notable destinations for Uganda’s exports were the EAC, Asia and European Union, which accounted for 30.2 percent, 13.7 percent and 13.0 percent of Uganda’s exports respectively. Within EAC, D.R. Congo, Kenya and South Sudan took the largest share accounting for 33.6 percent, 24.0 percent and 21.4 percent respectively.
3.4 Merchandise Imports13
Uganda’s import bill grew by 19.1 percent from USD 916.78 million in November 2023 to USD 1,092.03 million in November 2024. This growth was majorly attributed to higher prices and volumes of imports categorized under mineral products (excluding petroleum products), vegetable products and machinery, vehicles & accessories over the period under review.
However, the value of merchandise imports declined by 14.6 percent, from USD 1,277.91 million in October 2024 to USD 1,092.03 million in November 2024. This was mainly attributed to lower volumes of formal private sector imports particularly; mineral products (excluding petroleum products); petroleum products, wood & wood products, machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories, base metals & their products, among others during the month.
3.5 Origin of Imports
Asia remained the largest source of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 36.5 percent of the total imports in November 2024. Within Asia, the leading source was China accounting for 53.1 percent of the total exports from the region.
Other notable sources of Uganda’s imports were EAC, Rest of Africa and Middle East accounting for 25.3 percent, 16.8 percent and 11.0 percent of the total imports during the month of November 2024, respectively.
3.6 Trade Balance by Region
During November 2024, Uganda recorded trade surpluses with the Middle East, the Rest of Europe and the European Union amounting to USD 117.81 million, USD 3.52 million and USD 2.58 million respectively.
On the other hand, trade deficits worth USD 305.84 million, USD 156.36 million and USD 73.64 million were recorded with Asia, the Rest of Africa and the EAC respectively.
| Region | Nov 2023 | Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 53.87 | 130.68 | 117.81 |
| Rest of Europe | 0.64 | -5.06 | 3.52 |
| European Union | -10.07 | 33.92 | 2.58 |
| EAC | -21.02 | -72.17 | -73.64 |
| Rest of Africa | -106.66 | -150.25 | -156.36 |
| Asia | -204.26 | -454.63 | -305.84 |
| Other Countries | -12.05 | -15.52 | -7.47 |
4 Fiscal Developments14
During December 2024, Government’s fiscal operations resulted into a fiscal surplus of Shs 737.17 billion, surpassing the projected surplus of Shs 67.59 billion for the month. The higher than planned surplus was largely on account of lower than projected expenses incurred during the month (lower by 13.6 percent) and a surplus in tax collections for the month.
Table 4 shows the summary of fiscal operations for December 2024.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues | 3,673.72 | 3,909.79 | 106.4% | 236.07 |
| Taxes | 3,314.35 | 3,625.08 | 109.4% | 310.73 |
| Grants | 185.38 | 158.99 | 85.8% | -26.39 |
| Project support | 176.65 | 158.99 | 90.0% | -17.66 |
| Other revenue (Non-tax revenue) | 173.99 | 125.72 | 72.3% | -48.27 |
| Expense | 2,993.38 | 2,587.5 | 86.4% | -405.88 |
| Compensation of employees | 612.95 | 378.09 | 61.7% | -234.85 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 795.47 | 453.42 | 57.0% | -342.05 |
| Interest | 867.59 | 867.59 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: domestic | 614.3 | 614.3 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: foreign | 253.29 | 253.29 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Grants | 568.1 | 786.94 | 138.5% | 218.84 |
| o/w: local governments | 489.1 | 511.23 | 104.5% | 22.13 |
| Social benefits | 48.18 | 56.97 | 118.2% | 8.79 |
| Other expense | 101.1 | 44.48 | 44.0% | -56.61 |
| Gross operating balance | 680.34 | 1,322.29 | 194.4% | 641.95 |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 612.76 | 585.12 | 95.5% | -27.64 |
| Net lending/borrowing (surplus/deficit) | 67.59 | 737.17 | __ | __ |
4.1 Revenue Performance
During the month, revenue amounted to Shs 3,909.79 billion against a target of Shs 3,673.72 billion. This performance was mainly explained by tax revenue which registered a surplus of Shs 310.73 billion during the month, more than offsetting the shortfalls under other revenue (non-tax revenue) and grants that were also below target.
Tax collections for the month amounted to Shs 3,625.08 billion against a target of Shs 3,314.35 billion. This performance was mainly explained by higher than the projected profitability of firms and sales induced by the increased economic activity during the festive season as well as Government clearing its tax obligations for most of the first half of FY2024/25 in December 2024.
Ultimately, taxes on income and profits or direct taxes totaled Shs 2,070.71 billion, registering a surplus of Shs 291.64 billion. Taxes on international trade as well as taxes on goods and services or consumption taxes also registered surpluses of Shs 38.76 billion and Shs 4.16 billion against their respective targets for the month.
Other revenue (non-tax revenue) collections were Shs 125.72 billion against a target of Shs 173.99 billion, registering a shortfall of Shs 48.27 billion. Additionally, grants expected to finance development activities in the budget were short of projection by Shs 17.66 billion. Additionally, Government had initially projected to receive a budget support grant disbursement of Shs 8.74 billion in December 2024. However, this was disbursed in earlier months of the financial year.
4.2 Expenses
In December 2024, Government expenses amounted to a total of Shs 2,587.50 billion. This was against projected expenses of Shs 2,993.38 billion implying a performance of 86.4 percent. Grants (transfers), including to local governments, tertiary institutions and referral hospitals, as well as expenses on social benefits were higher than initially planned by 38.5 percent and 18.2 percent respectively signifying improved service delivery to the local communities. On the other hand, compensation of employees and purchase of goods and services were significantly lower than projected for the month.
4.3 Net acquisition of non-financial assets
During the month, Government expended Shs 585.12 billion on acquisition of non-financial assets which included amongst others infrastructure projects. This amount was against a plan for the month of Shs 612.76 billion resulting in a performance rate of 95.5%. The December 2024 performance of net acquisition of non-financial assets was the best of the financial year so far and reflects the increased release of funds to facilitate development projects in Quarter two of FY2024/25.
5 East Africa Community Developments
5.1 EAC Inflation15
In December 2024, inflation increased across most EAC partner states. Annual headline inflation rates for Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania, Somalia and Kenya increased to 6.8 percent, 3.3 percent, 3.1 percent, 5.7 percent and 3.0 percent from 5.0 percent, 2.9 percent, 3.0 percent, 5.2 percent and 2.8 percent in November 2024, respectively. The rise in headline in most of these countries was precipitated by rising prices of food items before and during the festive period, increased transport costs, etc.
Additionally, inflation for Burundi rose to 24.9 percent in October 2024 from 23.3 percent recorded in September 2024. This was mainly attributed to rising housing and transportation costs.
5.2 EAC Exchange Rates16
The Tanzanian, Ugandan and Kenyan shilling registered appreciations of 7.2 percent, 0.4 percent and 0.02 percent respectively against the US Dollar. The appreciation of the Tanzanian shilling followed the significant inflow of portfolio investments especially following the reduction of the Fed rate and other interest rates in the United States of America that have prompted investors to seek opportunities in other markets, increasing the global supply of the dollar. Additionally, seasonal increases in remittances around the festive season played a part in the appreciation registered in Tanzania, just as was the case in both Uganda and Kenya.
On the other hand, Rwandan and Burundian Francs posted depreciations of 0.8 percent and 0.2 percent against the US Dollar respectively, explained by lower exports and higher imports during the period.
5.3 Trade Balance with EAC
In November 2024, Uganda traded at a deficit worth USD 73.64 million with the rest of the EAC partner states compared to the USD 72.17 million deficit recorded the previous month. This slight widening of the deficit was a result of a decline in export earnings from the region which more than offset the reduction in imports from the region during this period. Uganda’s exports to the region reduced by 1.3 percent to USD 203.00 million in November 2024 from USD 205.76 million in October 2024. Similarly, imports from the region also declined by 0.5 percent from USD 277.93 million in October 2024 to USD 276.64 million in November 2024.
On a Country specific level, Uganda traded at surpluses with D.R. Congo, South Sudan, Burundi and Rwanda worth USD 65.88 million, USD 39.76 million, USD 4.25 million and USD 20.58 million in November 2024 respectively. However, deficits were recorded with Tanzania and Kenya amounting to USD 182.00 million and USD 22.12 million, respectively.
In comparison with the same month of last year, exports to the EAC declined by 5.2 percent from USD 214.05 million in November 2023 to USD 203.00 million in November 2024. Conversely, imports from the region increased by 17.7 percent to USD 276.65 million from USD 235.07 million over the same period.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
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The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External Sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, DRC, South Sudan and Somalia is available with a lag↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for DRC, South Sudan and Somalia is available with a lag.↩︎
CIEA Data comes with a lag of 1 month.↩︎
The 5 sectors include agriculture, mining, manufacturing, construction and wholesale, retail & services.↩︎
Readings above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on credit extensions has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on External Sector Developments come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for Burundi, South Sudan, D.R.C and Somalia is available with a lag.↩︎
Data for South Sudan, Somalia and DRC is available with a lag.↩︎