July 2024
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2024-08-20
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| DRC | Democratic Republic of Congo | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FOB | Free on Board | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TzShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
There has been continued improvement in the level of economic activity as shown by the high frequency indicators of economic activity, that is; the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Similarly, perceptions about doing business as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) remained positive and optimistic.
For example, the CIEA grew by 0.97% from 166.61 in May 2024 to 168.22 in June 2024, partly in response to growth in coffee exports, and higher private sector credit. In addition, the PMI improved for the fourth consecutive month with the index being recorded at 53.7 in July 2024 from 51.9 in June 2024, on account of sustained expansions in new orders and greater client demand. Similarly, the BTI was recorded at 59.03 in July 2024, exceeding the 50-mark threshold, with increased optimism observed in the wholesale trade and other services sectors.
Annual headline inflation increased marginally to 4.0% in July 2024 up from 3.9% in June 2024. This was attributed to a rise in prices for passenger transport services, accommodation services, recreation, sports and culture services. In addition, prices for foodstuffs such as matooke, irish potatoes and cabbages rose.
Financial Sector
In July 2024, the Ugandan Shillings appreciated by 1.1% against the US Dollar to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,705.85/USD, compared to Shs 3,747.19/USD in June 2024. This appreciation was on account of increased supply of dollars which outstripped its demand.
In July 2024, the Central Bank Rate remained unchanged at 10.25%. However, in early August 2024, Bank of Uganda revised its policy rate downwards by 25 basis points to 10.0%.
The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit decreased from 18.85% in May 2024 to 17.64% in June 2024. This was partly driven by increased lending to prime borrowers, who secured loans at favorable rates due to their lower risk profile.
In July 2024, the Government raised a total of Shs. 1,576.33 billion through the issuance of treasury instruments, with Shs. 823.00 billion from T-Bills and Shs.753.33 billion from T-Bonds.
Save for the 364-day tenor, whose annualized yield remained unchanged at 13.6%, yields (interest rates) on treasury bills generally declined. In July 2024, the yields for the 91-day and 182-day tenors reduced to 9.9% and 12.9% from 10.7% and 13.1% in June 2024 respectively.
The stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit in June 2024 increased by 1.3%, to Shs 21,919.51 billion from Shs. 21,634.92 billion in May 2024. This was on account of an increase in Shilling-denominated credit, resulting from higher credit extensions due to lower lending rates compared to May 2024.
External Sector
Uganda’s export earnings in June 2024 amounted to USD 718.60 million, a 23.6% decrease from USD 940.93 million in May 2024. This decline was largely attributed to lower export earnings from mineral products during the month. However, excluding mineral products, total exports increased by 5.1% from USD 446.85 in May 2024 to USD 469.72 million in June 2024, mainly due to higher receipts from coffee.
The import bill declined by 6.5%, from USD 1,033.50 million in May 2024 to USD 966.53 million in June 2024. This was mainly due to lower volumes of formal private sector non-oil imports particularly; vegetable products, animal products, beverages, fats & oils as well as mineral products (excluding petroleum products) during the month.
Consequently, the merchandise trade deficit widened significantly, from USD 92.58 million in May 2024 to USD 247.93 million in June 2024, as the decline in export earnings outpaced the reduction in the import bill.
Fiscal Sector
Net borrowing (fiscal deficit) was recorded at Shs. 29.95 billion in July 2024, against the target of Shs. 975.55 billion. This was due to a combination of higher-than-targeted tax revenue and lower-than-projected expenditures.
In July 2024, total revenue was Shs. 2,233.73 billion, surpassing the target of Shs. 2,181.48 billion by Shs. 124.00 billion. This was largely due to an improved tax performance, with surpluses registered in taxes on income, profits, and capital gains (Shs. 21.00 billion), taxes on goods and services (Shs. 2.40 billion), and international trade taxes (Shs. 34 billion).
Expenses in July 2024 amounted to Shs. 2,198.50 billion against the program of Shs. 2,846.59 billion. This was due to all expense categories, except for social benefits, performing below their respective targets.
During July 2024, Shs. 65.18 billion was used to acquire non-financial assets against a target of Shs 310.44 billion. This was due to longer than anticipated procurement processes at the beginning of the financial year which delayed the execution of acquisition of non-financial assets and lower-than-expected external disbursements.
Annual headline inflation trended differently for the EAC Partner States in July 2024. Uganda and Rwanda’s inflation increased from 3.9% and 1.1% in June 2024 to 4.0% and 1.5%, respectively in July 2024. Conversely, Kenya and Tanzania’s inflation dropped from 4.6% and 3.1% to 4.3% and 3.0% respectively.
In July 2024, all the currencies of the EAC Partner States depreciated against the US Dollar, except for the Ugandan Shilling. The Tanzanian and Kenyan Shillings depreciated by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, while the Rwandan and Burundian Francs weakened by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
In June 2024, Uganda traded at a surplus of USD 45.26 million with the rest of the EAC Partner States, a shift from the deficit of USD 72.20 million registered the previous month. Imports from the region decreased by 40.9% to USD 188.35 million in June 2024, down from USD 318.80 million the previous month. Exports to the region also declined by 5.3% from USD 246.60 million to USD 233.61 million over the same period.
1 Real Sector Developments
1.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation for the year ended July 2024 increased to 4.0% compared to 3.9% recorded in June 2024. This was attributed to a rise in both annual core and annual food crop & related items inflation.
Annual core inflation rose to 4.0% for the year ended July 2024, compared to 3.8% for the year ended June 2024. This was attributed to higher price increases for passenger transport services (8.2% compared to 7.0%), accommodation services (4.8% compared to 4.4%), recreation, sports and culture services (7.2% compared to 5.8%).
Annual food crops and related items inflation also increased to 2.0% for the year ended July 2024 compared to 0.5% for the year ended June 2024. This was mainly explained by an increase in the prices of matooke by 3.6% in July compared to minus 10.4% in June 2024. In addition, prices of irish potatoes and cabbages increased by 17.2% and 32.5% compared to 1.6% and 14.4%, respectively, in the previous month.
Annual Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) Inflation, however, declined to 6.2% in the year ended July 2024 from 10.3% in June 2024 following lower inflation for both liquid and solid fuels. More specifically the rate of price increases for petrol and diesel reduced to 8.8% and 1.5% in July 2024, compared to 9.0% and 2.0% respectively, in June 2024. Inflation for charcoal and firewood also reduced to 12.5% from 20.6%; and 15.9% from 23.7%, respectively over the same period.
1.2 Economic Activity
There has been continued improvement in the level of economic activity as shown by the high frequency indicators of economic activity i.e. the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) and Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Similarly, perceptions about doing business as shown by the BTI, remained positive and optimistic.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) grew by 0.97% from 166.61 in May 2024 to 168.22 in June 2024, partly in response to growth in coffee exports, and higher Private Sector Credit to trade and building, mortgage, construction & real estate sectors, which supported economic activity during the month.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) also improved to 53.7 in July 2024 from 51.9 in June 2024, explained by sustained expansions in new orders and output.
1.2.1 Business Perceptions
Perceptions about doing business as shown by Business Tendency Index (BTI) remained optimistic and positive. The BTI was recorded at 59.03 in July 2024, way above the 50-mark threshold, indicating continued optimism within the business community. Higher optimism in the business community was observed in wholesale trade and other services sectors.
2 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Exchange Rate Movements
In July 2024, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated by 1.1% against the US Dollar to an average mid-rate of Shs 3,705.85/USD, compared to Shs 3,747.19/USD in June 2024. This appreciation was on account of increased supply for dollars which outstripped its demand. The increased dollar supply was partly supported by the tight monetary policy stance; higher inflows from coffee exports owing to favorable international coffee prices; increased Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) in the oil and gas sector and more tourism receipts.
Additionally, the Shilling appreciated by 0.3% against the Euro but depreciated by 0.1% against the British Pound.
2.2 Interest Rate Movements
The Central Bank Rate remained unchanged at 10.25% for the fourth consecutive month in July 2024. However, in early August 2024, Bank of Uganda reduced it by 25 basis points to 10.0%. The reduction was due to the expectation that inflation would stay below the 5% target for FY 2024/25, supported by stable demand conditions, reduced imported inflation, and exchange rate stability.
2.2.1 Lending Rates4
The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit decreased from 18.85% in May 2024 to 17.64% in June 2024. This decline was partly driven by increased lending to prime borrowers, who secured loans at favorable rates due to their lower risk profile. Conversely, foreign currency-denominated credit rates increased from 8.87% in May 2024 to 9.23% in June 2024.
2.3 Government Securities
In July 2024, the Government raised a total of Shs. 1,576.33 billion from issuance of treasury instruments. Particularly, Shs. 823.00 billion was from issuance of T-Bills while Shs.753.33 billion was from issuance of T-Bonds. Shs.527.73 billion went towards refinancing maturing treasury instruments, while the remaining amount of Shs. 1,048.60 billion was used for financing other items of the budget (domestic borrowing for budget).
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2023/24 | 15,021.3 | 6,662.8 | 8,358.5 |
| Q4 2023/24 | 3,012.6 | 1,921.4 | 1,091.3 |
| July 2024 | 1,576.3 | 1,048.6 | 527.7 |
| FY 2024/25 to date | 1,576.3 | 1,048.6 | 527.7 |
2.4 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Save for the 364-day tenor, whose annualized yield rate remained unchanged at 13.6% as in the previous month, yields on treasury bills generally declined. In July 2024, the 91-day tenor yield edged downwards to 9.9% from 10.7% in June 2024, while the 182-day tenor dropped to 12.9% from 13.1% in the previous month.
All auctions for Treasury bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid-to-cover ratio amounting to 2.57.
2.4.1 Yields on Treasury Bonds
Government issued 3 treasury bonds in July 2024 of 2-year tenor, 5-year tenor and 15-year tenor. Yields exhibited mixed trends across tenors, slightly decreasing from 16.50% in May 2024 to 15.80% in July for the 15-year, remaining unchanged at 15.50% for the 5-year tenor compared to its previous issuance in May 2024 and increasing to 15.25% from 13.75% in April 2024 for the 2-year tenor.
2.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit5
In June 2024, the stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit increased by 1.3%, to Shs 21,919.51 billion from Shs 21,634.92 billion in May 2024. This growth was driven by a rise in Shilling denominated credit which increased, from Shs 15,222.09 billion to Shs 15,629.53 billion. The rise was partly supported by lower Shilling-denominated lending rates and higher credit extensions, particularly to borrowers in the trade and building, mortgage, construction & real estate sectors.
Conversely, foreign currency-denominated credit decreased from Shs 6,412.84 billion in May 2024 to Shs 6,289.98 billion in June 2024.
2.6 Credit Extensions6
In June 2024, a total of Shs 1,360.87 billion was extended to the private sector by lending institutions, an increase from Shs 1,331.47 billion in the previous month. This translated into an approval rate of 66.0% during the month. The trade sector accounted for the biggest share of the loans extended to the private sector, accounting for 29.0% of the total credit approved. This was followed by the personal and household loans at 22.7% and building, mortgage, construction & real estate at 15.2%.
3 External Sector Developments
3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance7
In June 2024, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit with the rest of the world increased significantly from USD 92.58 million in May 2024 to USD 247.93 million in June 2024. This increase was due to a decline in the export receipts, which more than offset the decrease in the import bill during the month.
However, compared to the same month the previous year, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 2.9%, decreasing from USD 255.38 million in June 2023 to USD 247.93 million in June 2024. This was driven by a higher increase in export earnings, which outpaced the rise in the import bill over the period.
3.2 Merchandise Exports
Export earnings in June 2024 amounted to USD 718.60 million, a 23.6% decrease from USD 940.93 million in May 2024. This decline was mainly attributed to lower export earnings from mineral products during the month. However, excluding mineral products, exports increased by 5.1% from USD 446.85 in May 2024 to USD 469.72 million in June 2024, owing to higher coffee receipts.
However, coffee export earnings grew by 27.5% to USD 162.36 million in June 2024, up from USD 127.30 million in May 2024. This growth was driven by higher export volumes and an increase in international coffee prices. The increase in coffee export volumes was mainly on account of higher Robusta coffee yields from the Greater Masaka and South Western regions of Uganda. The rise in international coffee prices was driven by reduced supply of coffee from Vietnam and Indonesia which experienced shortage in local supply due to poor harvests.
Italy remained the largest market for Uganda’s coffee exports, accounting for 41.96% of the total coffee exports in June 2024. Other significant markets included Germany, India, Sudan and Spain accounting for 10.55%, 7.41%, 6.87% and 5.40% of the total coffee exports, respectively.
| Product | Jun-2023 | May-2024 | Jun-2024 |
Jun-2024 vs Jun-2023 % Change |
Jun-2024 vs May-2024 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 642.9 | 940.93 | 718.6 | 11.78 | -23.63 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 90.56 | 127.3 | 162.36 | 79.28 | 27.54 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.56 | 0.55 | 0.67 | 18.35 | 20.49 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 2.68 | 3.83 | 4.06 | 51.49 | 5.85 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 511.31 | 764.53 | 507.01 | -0.84 | -33.68 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 253.29 | 494.08 | 248.89 | -1.74 | -49.63 |
| Cotton | 2.95 | 1.33 | 0.32 | -89.23 | -76.21 |
| Tea | 8.74 | 5.8 | 4.78 | -45.29 | -17.62 |
| Tobacco | 3.67 | 5.29 | 3.28 | -10.53 | -37.99 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 10.67 | 11.65 | 10.85 | 1.69 | -6.85 |
| Simsim | 1.92 | 3.41 | 1.24 | -35.14 | -63.6 |
| Maize | 12.19 | 10.54 | 10.23 | -16.05 | -2.97 |
| Beans | 4.78 | 5.46 | 4.66 | -2.63 | -14.67 |
| Flowers | 6.89 | 6.28 | 6.69 | -2.86 | 6.65 |
| ICBT Exports | 41.03 | 49.09 | 49.22 | 19.99 | 0.27 |
In comparison to June 2023, export earnings grew by 11.8% from USD 642.90 million to USD 718.60 million in June 2024, largely due to increased earnings from coffee and electricity exports.
3.3 Destination of Exports8
The East African Community (EAC) emerged as the biggest destination of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 32.5% of the total exports in June 2024. Within the EAC, Kenya, DRC and South Sudan were the top recipients, accounting for 30.0%, 28.1% and 21.8% of Uganda’s exports to the region, respectively.
Other notable destinations for Uganda’s exports were the Middle East, European Union and Asia, which accounted for 24.5%, 18.2% and 18.0% of the total exports during the month respectively.
In comparison to the same month last year (June 2023), Asia and EAC were the largest destinations of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 33.2% and 33.1% of the exports respectively. They were followed by the Middle East and European Union, which accounted for 13.9% and 12.9% of the total exports, respectively.
3.4 Merchandise Imports9
The value of merchandise imports declined by 6.5%, from USD 1,033.50 million in May 2024 to USD 966.53 million in June 2024. This was mainly attributed to lower volumes of formal private sector non-oil imports particularly; vegetable products, animal products, beverages, fats & oils as well as mineral products (excluding petroleum products) during the month.
On the other hand, when compared to the same month the previous year, the import bill grew by 7.6% from USD 898.28 million to USD 966.53 million in June 2024. This growth was majorly attributed to higher import volumes for petroleum products, chemical & related products and mineral products.
3.5 Origin of Imports
Asia was the largest source of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 34.6% of the total imports in June 2024. Within Asia, the major sources were China and India accounting for 46.0% and 27.5% of the total imports from the region, respectively.
Other notable sources of Uganda’s imports included the EAC, Rest of Africa and the Middle East accounting for 19.5%, 17.2% and 16.8% of the total imports, respectively. Within the EAC, Tanzania and Kenya were the leading sources of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 54.1% and 42.1% of Uganda’s imports from the region, respectively.
In comparison to June 2023, Asia was the largest source of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 36.9% of the total imports. This was closely followed by EAC, the Middle East and Rest of Africa at 26.9%, 15.3% and 10.5% respectively.
3.6 Trade Balance by Region
During June 2024, Uganda traded at surpluses with the European Union, EAC and Middle East amounting to USD 52.15 million, USD 45.26 million and USD 14.13 million, respectively.
On the other hand, trade deficits were recorded with Asia (USD 205.40 million), Rest of Africa (USD 137.76 million) and Rest of Europe at USD 2.14 million.
| Region | Jun 2023 | May 2024 | Jun 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 23.67 | 47.72 | 52.15 |
| EAC | -28.78 | -72.2 | 45.26 |
| Middle East | -48.33 | 130.53 | 14.13 |
| Rest of Europe | -1.74 | -1.14 | -2.14 |
| Rest of Africa | -69.61 | -132.76 | -137.76 |
| Asia | -117.82 | -61.89 | -205.4 |
| Other Countries | -12.77 | -2.83 | -14.16 |
4 Fiscal Developments10
Net borrowing (fiscal deficit) for July 2024 was projected to amount to Shs. 975.55 billion. However, Government operations during the month resulted in a net borrowing of Shs. 29.95 billion. This was due to a combination of higher-than-targeted tax revenue and lower-than-projected expenditures. The table below shows the summary of fiscal operations for July 2024.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,181.48 | 2,233.73 | 102.4% | 52.25 |
| Taxes | 1,978.41 | 2,102.71 | 106.3% | 124.3 |
| Social contributions | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| Grants | 74.09 | 12.1 | 16.3% | -61.99 |
| Project support | 74.09 | 12.1 | 16.3% | -61.99 |
| Other revenue | 128.98 | 118.92 | 92.2% | -10.06 |
| Expense | 2,846.59 | 2,198.5 | 77.2% | -648.09 |
| Compensation of employees | 551.05 | 337.69 | 61.3% | -213.36 |
| Purchase of goods and services | 432.34 | 222.58 | 51.5% | -209.76 |
| Consumption of fixed capital | 0 | 0 | __ | 0 |
| Interest | 841.19 | 816.05 | 97.0% | -25.14 |
| o/w: domestic | 597 | 597 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w: foreign | 244.19 | 219.05 | 89.7% | -25.14 |
| Subsidies | 0 | 0 | __ | 0 |
| Grants | 768 | 759.75 | 98.9% | -8.25 |
| Social benefits | 451.21 | 505.19 | 112.0% | 53.97 |
| Other expense | 21.48 | 22.69 | 105.6% | 1.21 |
| Gross operating balance | 232.53 | 39.74 | 17.1% | -192.79 |
| Transactions in non-financial assets: | __ | __ | __ | __ |
| Net Acquisition of Nonfinancial Assets | 310.44 | 65.18 | 21.0% | -245.26 |
| Net lending/borrowing | -975.55 | -29.95 | __ | __ |
4.1 Revenue Performance
Total revenue for the month amounted to Shs. 2,233.73 billion, against the programmed target of Shs. 2,181.48 billion. This was largely due to tax performance which registered a surplus of Shs. 124.3 billion. Taxes on income, profits and capital gains registered a surplus of Shs. 21.00 billion while taxes on goods and services registered a surplus of Shs 2.40 billion. Similarly, international trade taxes were above the target by Shs. 34 billion. The surplus under international trade taxes was largely due to the good performance of import duty during the month.
Preliminary data shows that grant disbursements amounted to Shs.12.10 billion against a target of Shs. 74.09 billion, while other revenue registered shortfalls of Shs.10.06 billion.
4.2 Expenses
Expenses for the month amounted to Shs. 2,198.50 billion against the program of Shs. 2,846.59 billion. All expense categories performed below their respective targets except social benefits. Only 61% of the compensation to employees was paid during the month, with delays arising from payroll system challenges accounting for this underperformance.
The purchase of goods and services was slower than planned due to longer than anticipated budget processes at the beginning of the financial year that delayed spending by agencies. Shs. 505.2 billion was released to Local Governments (grants), of which Shs. 279.3 billion was for wages, Shs. 128.9 billion was for recurrent expenditure, and Shs. 96.9 billion was for development expenditure.
4.3 Net acquisition of non-financial assets
Shs. 65.18 billion was used to acquire non-financial assets during July 2024, against a target of Shs. 310.44 billion. This was due to longer than anticipated procurement processes at the beginning of the financial year and lower-than-expected external disbursements.
5 East Africa Community Developments
5.1 EAC Inflation11
Kenya’s annual headline inflation declined to 4.3% in July 2024, down from 4.6% in the previous month. This reduction was partly driven by lower price increases for alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics; clothing and footwear; restaurants and accommodation services.
Tanzania’s inflation rate also decreased from 3.1% in June 2024 to 3.0% in July 2024. This was due to lower inflation for transport; health; insurance and financial services; alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
On the other hand, Rwanda’s annual headline inflation increased to 1.5% in July 2024 from 1.1% in June 2024. This increase was attributed to a pick up in the price rise for transport; food and non-alcoholic beverages; housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels.
5.2 EAC Exchange Rates12
In July 2024, all the currencies of the EAC Partner States depreciated against the US Dollar, except for the Ugandan Shilling, which appreciated by 1.1%. The Tanzanian and Kenyan Shillings depreciated by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively, while the Rwandan and Burundian Francs weakened by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
5.3 Trade Balance with EAC
In June 2024, Uganda traded at a surplus of USD 45.26 million with the rest of the EAC Partner States, a shift from the deficit of USD 72.20 million registered the previous month. This was majorly on account of a substantial decline in the imports from Tanzania, which dropped by 56.8% from USD 236.12 million to USD 101.90 million in June 2024.
On a country-specific level, Uganda traded at surpluses of USD 61.85 million, USD 48.47 million, USD 25.94 million and USD 8.61 million with DRC, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi, respectively. However, trade deficits were recorded with Tanzania and Kenya, amounting to USD 90.44 million and USD 9.17 million, respectively.
Comparison with the same month last year showed that exports to the EAC increased by 9.7% from USD 213.02 million in June 2023 to USD 233.61 million in June 2024. Conversely, imports from the region decreased by 22.1% from USD 241.80 million to USD 188.35 million over the same period.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External Sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, DRC, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for DRC, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on credit extensions has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for Burundi, South Sudan, DRC and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data for South Sudan, Somalia and DRC not readily available.↩︎