May 2024
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2024-06-17
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| D.R.C | Democratic Republic of Congo | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuel and Utilities | |
| FOB | Free on Board | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TzShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
• Annual headline inflation increased to 3.6% in May 2024 from 3.2% the previous month, largely on account of an increase in annual core inflation which rose to 3.7% in May from 3.5% the month before. Annual inflation for energy, fuel and utilities’ (EFU) exhibited a similar trend, increasing to 9.5% in May from 7.9% in April, while the general price level for food crops and related items continued to decline registering a deflation of 1.4% for the year ending May 2024.
• Economic activity continued to increase following a pick-up in consumer demand, which further boosted confidence in business conditions as indicated by the high frequency indicators of economic activity.
• The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) continued to edge upwards to 163.06 in April 2024 from 162.30 in March 2024, indicating growth in private sector output.
• The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 54.1 in May 2024, up from 52.6 in the previous month. This marks the second consecutive month of growth after the decline registered in March 2024 as private sector performance continued to improve.
• The BTI increased to 57.97 in May 2024 from 55.97 recorded the previous month, indicating increased confidence about the business conditions partly attributed to the increased consumer demand.
Financial Sector
• The Uganda Shilling gained by 0.8%, recording a midrate of Shs. 3,791.4 per USD in May from Shs. 3,822.7 in April 2024. This appreciation was in part due to higher dollar inflows from commodity exports like coffee, and NGO’s amid subdued demand for the dollar.
• The Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained unchanged at 10.25% in May following its upward revision the previous month. The Central Bank opined that this rate would be adequate to contain inflation around the medium-term target of 5%.
• The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit increased to 17.74% in April from 17.34% in March 2024. This was partly due to the increase of the Central Bank rate from 10.00% to 10.25% over the same period, coupled with increased risk aversion among creditors as non performing loans grew.
• Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills continued to edge upwards for the 182 and 364 day tenors at 13.1% and 13.6% in May 2024, from 12.6% and 13.4% in April 2024, respectively. On the other hand, the annualized yield for the 91-day tenor slightly edged downwards to 9.6% from 9.8%.
• In April 2024, the stock of total outstanding Private Sector Credit reduced to Shs. 21,537 billion from Shs. 21,735 billion in March 2024 partly explained by the increased cost of borrowing over the same period.
External Sector
• In April 2024, Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world reduced by 23.4% to USD 309.01 million from USD 403.41 million the previous month.
• Uganda’s merchandise exports increased from USD 634.43 million in March 2024 to USD 639.86 million in April, registering a 0.9% growth rate. This increase was mainly due to a rise in export receipts from coffee, tea as well as fish and its products.
• Uganda’s merchandise imports decreased by 8.6% to USD 948.88 million in April from USD 1,037.84 million in March 2024. This was mainly attributed to a reduction in private sector imports particularly vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oils; mineral products (excluding petroleum products); miscelanneous manufactured articles, textiles & products among others.
Fiscal Sector
• Government fiscal operations during May 2024 resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of Shs. 1,551.44 billion which was higher than the Shs. 1,026.66 billion target for the month. This was due to shortfalls in revenue & grants and higher-than-planned expenditure during the month.
• Domestic revenue collections in May 2024 amounted to Shs. 2,262.51 billion, registering a 94.6% performance rate against the target of Shs. 2,392.87 billion for the month. Both tax and non-tax categories performed below their targets.
• Total Government expenditure in May 2024 amounted to Shs. 3,927.57 billion against the planned expenditure of Shs. 3,581.30 billion. The higher than planned expenditure was due to supplementary expenditures approved by Parliament.
• The EAC partner states experienced varying trends in inflation. Kenya’s annual headline inflation increased slightly to 5.1% in May 2024 from 5.0% the previous month. Rwanda’s annual headline inflation rebounded to 1.3% in May 2024, compared to -0.5% the previous month, while Tanzania’s annual headline inflation remained relatively unchanged at 3.1% in May.
• Burundi’s annual headline inflation, which is reported with a month’s lag, slowed down to 12.1% in April from 14.0% in March 2024.
• During May, the currencies within the EAC recorded losses against the USD, save for the Uganda Shilling that strengthened by 0.8%. The Burundi Franc, Rwanda Franc and Kenya Shilling depreciated by 0.2%, 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. The Tanzanian Shilling remained relatively stable depreciating slightly by 0.05%.
• Uganda’s trade deficit with other EAC countries reduced from USD 193.75 million in March to USD 58.59 million in April 2024.
1 Real Sector Developments
1.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation increased to 3.6% in May 2024 from 3.2% the previous month, largely on account of an increase in annual core inflation which rose to 3.7% in May from 3.5% the month before. Annual inflation for energy, fuel and utilities’ (EFU) exhibited a similar trend, increasing to 9.5% in May from 7.9% in April, while the general price level for food crops and related items continued to decline registering a deflation of 1.4% for the year ending May 2024.
Core inflation: The increase in core inflation was mainly driven by annual services inflation, which rose to 6.2% in May from 5.4% the previous month. This was majorly driven by an increase in the cost of education services, financial services, meals in restaurants, taxi fares and domestic flights in May 2024 compared to the same month last year. On the other hand, annual other goods inflation slowed down to 1.8% in May 2024 from 2.0% the previous month, mainly driven by a reduction in the price of maize and cassava flour, rice, laundry bar soap, refined oil, corrugated iron sheets, sugar, whole grain maize, and second hand vehicles in May 2024 compared to May last year.
Annual Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) Inflation increased in May 2024 largely on account of a surge in prices for charcoal and firewood, water, and petrol compared to May 2023. The persistent increase in charcoal and firewood prices is partly a result of the ban of commercial production of charcoal because of the threat of climate change stemming from the cutting of trees.
Annual food crops and related items inflation: On the other hand, prices continued on a downward trend for food crops and related items over the year ending May 2024, following better agricultural harvests compared to the same month the previous year. Particularly, prices dropped for cooking bananas (matooke), beans, cassava and sweet potatoes among others, compared to May 2023.
1.2 Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to increase following a pick-up in consumer demand, which further boosted confidence in business conditions as indicated by the high frequency indicators of economic activity.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) continued to edge upwards to 163.06 in April 2024 from 162.30 in March 2024, indicating growth in private sector output. Since the beginning of the fiscal year 2023/24, the CIEA has registered consistent growth in line with the projected annual growth of 6%. Increased activity was recorded across all sectors during the month of April.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 54.1 in May 2024, up from 52.6 the previous month. This marks the second consecutive month of growth after the decline registered in March 2024 as private sector performance continued to improve. Higher consumer demand contributed to the continued expansion in both output and new orders. To increase capacity for the new orders, companies increased their staffing levels during the month. Production costs continued to increase as costs of inputs and staff costs remained elevated since April 2024. However, the sustained demand conditions enabled firms to increase their output and sales during the month. Growth was mainly registered in mining, manufacturing and wholesale trade sectors during the month.
1.2.1 Business Perceptions
Private sector sentiments about business conditions remained positive in May 2024 as shown by the Business Tendency Index that was above the 50-mark threshold. The BTI increased to 57.97 in May 2024 from 55.97 recorded the previous month, indicating increased confidence about the business conditions partly attributed to the increased consumer demand. At sectoral level, optimism was registered in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and wholesale trade.
2 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Exchange Rate Movements
The Uganda Shilling continued to appreciate during the month. On average, the Shilling gained by 0.8%, recording a midrate of Shs. 3,791.4 per USD in May from Shs. 3,822.7 in April 2024. This appreciation was in part due to higher dollar inflows to NGO’s and from commodity exports like coffee, amid subdued demand for the dollar. The Shilling tended towards a depreciation against the British Pound Sterling and the Euro but remained generally stable throughout the month.
2.2 Interest Rate Movements
On 8th April 2024, the Bank of Uganda increased the Central Bank Rate(CBR) to 10.25% following the persistent upside risks to inflation. This rate was maintained in May 2024 and deemed sufficient to keep inflation within the medium-term target of 5%. The significant upside risks to the inflation outlook include, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, potential energy price hikes, tighter global financial conditions that could lead to a stronger depreciation of the shilling exchange rate, and unpredictable weather patterns.
2.2.1 Lending Rates4
The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit increased to 17.74% in April 2024 from 17.34% in March 2024. This was partly due to the increase in the Central Bank rate from 10.00% to 10.25% over the same period, coupled with increased risk aversion among creditors. The increase in risk aversion is explained by the rise in the ratio of non-performing loans to total gross loans, from 4.6 in December 2023 to 5.13 in March 2024.
Similarly, lending rates for foreign currency-denominated credit increased to 9.32% in April 2024 from 9.20% in March 2024.
2.3 Government Securities
In May 2024, Government secured Shs. 955.56 billion from three auctions (2 T-Bills, 1 T-Bond). Of the total amount raised, Shs. 398.65 billion was from T-Bills while Shs. 556.91 billion was from the T-Bond auction. A total of Shs. 599.73 billion was raised for refinancing maturing securities while Shs. 355.83 billion was used to finance other items in the budget.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2022/23 | 11,334.2 | 3,928 | 7,406.2 |
| Q1 2023/24 | 4,272.8 | 1,682.4 | 2,590.5 |
| Q2 2023/24 | 3,681.5 | 1,558.2 | 2,123.2 |
| Q3 2023/24 | 4,048.9 | 1,495.4 | 2,553.5 |
| April 2024 | 1,163.6 | 672.1 | 491.5 |
| May 2024 | 955.6 | 355.8 | 599.7 |
| FY 2023/24 to date | 14,122.4 | 5,763.9 | 8,358.5 |
2.4 Annualized Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills continued to edge upwards for the 182 and 364 day tenors at 13.1% and 13.6% in May 2024, from 12.6% and 13.4% in April 2024, respectively. On the other hand, the annualized yield for the 91-day tenor slightly edged downwards to 9.6% from 9.8%. The decline in the yield for the 91 day bill is partly as a result of a high subscription versus demand, as indicated by the bid to cover ratio5 of 2.62.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio being recorded at 2.09 in May 2024.
2.4.1 Yields on Treasury Bonds
Government re-opened6 5-year and 15-year tenor bonds on the primary securities market. Yields edged upwards for all bonds in comparison to the previous issuance of similar securities. The yields for the 5-year and 15-year tenor bonds increased to 15.50%, and 16.50% from 14.60% and 16.30% respectively. The rise in yields during the month follows the rise in the CBR by the Central Bank in April 2024.
2.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit7
In April 2024, the stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit reduced to Shs. 21,537.44 billion from Shs. 21,735.86 billion in March 2024. This was on account of a decline in both foreign currency and Shilling denominated credit. Foreign currency denominated credit declined from Shs. 6,536.55 billion in March to Shs. 6,388.87 billion in April 2024 while Shilling denominated credit declined from Shs. 15,199.34 billion in March 2024 to Shs. 15,148.57 in April 2024. The decline in private sector credit is partly attributed to the increase in the lending rates over the same period.
2.6 Credit Extensions8
The value of credit approved for disbursement increased by 16.8% to Shs. 1,280 billion in April 2024 from Shs. 1,096 billion in March 2024. Personal and household loans continued to account for the largest share at 29.2% of the total credit approved for lending in April 2024. Other notable sectors were trade (16.2%), building construction & real estate (14.3%), business services (13.8%), and agriculture (12.1%).
3 External Sector Developments
3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance9
In April 2024, Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world reduced by 23.4% to USD 309.01 million from USD 403.41 million the previous month. The narrowing in the trade deficit was brought about by the increase in exports coupled with a reduction in imports.
However, on a year-on-year basis, the trade deficit with the rest of the world widened by 37.0%, rising from USD 225.53 million in April 2023 to USD 309.01 million in April 2024. This increase was driven by a 25.6% growth increase in imports which more than offset the 21.9% increase in exports.
3.2 Merchandise Exports
During April 2024, Uganda’s merchandise exports increased from USD 634.43 million in March 2024 to USD 639.86 million in April, registering a 0.9% growth rate. This increase was mainly due to a rise in export receipts from coffee, tea as well as fish and its products.
Earnings from coffee in April 2024 went up by 30.8%, to USD 84.70 million from USD 64.74 million in March 2024. Similarly, the earnings registered an increase of 41.2% on a year to year basis, rising from USD 59.99 million in April 2023 to USD 84.70 million in April 2024. The increase in coffee export volumes between the two years is explained by increased robusta coffee harvested from Masaka region and South Western Uganda.
Italy maintained the highest market share of Uganda’s coffee exports, accounting for 43.9% of the total coffee exports. It was followed by India, U.S.A, Germany and Belgium accounting for 8.1%, 7.0%. 6.9% and 6.8% of the total coffee exports, respectively.
| Product | Apr-2023 | Mar-2024 | Apr-2024 |
Apr-2024 vs Apr-2023 % Change |
Apr-2024 vs Mar-2024 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 530.245 | 634.427 | 639.863 | 20.673 | 0.857 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 59.99 | 64.735 | 84.698 | 41.186 | 30.837 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.374 | 0.33 | 0.39 | 4.517 | 18.442 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 2.676 | 3.273 | 3.615 | 35.084 | 10.465 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 428.558 | 525.465 | 511.062 | 19.252 | -2.741 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 200.847 | 270.423 | 259.963 | 29.433 | -3.868 |
| Cotton | 1.651 | 3.544 | 1.987 | 20.35 | -43.946 |
| Tea | 6.894 | 4.281 | 5.634 | -18.268 | 31.604 |
| Tobacco | 4.865 | 10.341 | 6.588 | 35.414 | -36.29 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 10.186 | 9.822 | 10.497 | 3.058 | 6.876 |
| Simsim | 2.083 | 5.486 | 4.162 | 99.763 | -24.138 |
| Maize | 17.591 | 6.529 | 5.075 | -71.148 | -22.269 |
| Beans | 1.77 | 4.141 | 3.313 | 87.154 | -19.994 |
| Flowers | 5.006 | 4.98 | 4.932 | -1.465 | -0.948 |
| ICBT Exports | 41.697 | 44.226 | 44.103 | 5.769 | -0.279 |
On a year-on-year basis, Uganda’s merchandise exports grew by 20.7%, from USD 530.25 million in April 2023 to USD 639.86 million in April 2024. This growth was mainly due to a rise in export earnings from coffee, gold, cotton, tobacco, simsim, and beans among others.
3.3 Destination of Exports10
In April 2024, the EAC was the largest destination of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 31.7% of the total exports. At country specific level, the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and Kenya accounted for a total of 81.3% of our exports to the region.
Other notable destinations for Uganda’s exports during the month were the Middle East, Asia and the European Union accounting for 25.8%, 23.4% and 13.9% of total exports respectively. Within the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates received 97.3% of exports to the region, predominantly consisting of gold exports. Within Asia, India and Hong Kong were the largest importers of Uganda’s merchandise, taking up 78.5% of the total exports to the region.
3.4 Merchandise Imports11
During April 2024, Uganda’s merchandise imports decreased by 8.6% to USD 948.88 million from USD 1,037.84 million in March 2024. This was mainly attributed a reduction in private sector imports particularly vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oils; mineral products (excluding petroleum products); miscellaneous manufactured articles, textiles & products among others.
Conversely, a year on year comparison shows that the import bill grew by 25.6% from USD 755.78 million in April 2023 to USD 948.88 million in April 2024. This growth was on account of increased volumes of vegetable products, animal, beverages, fats & oils; machinery equipments, vehicle & accessories; petroleum products, mineral products among others.
3.5 Origin of Imports
Asia emerged as the largest source of Uganda’s imports, constituting 30.7% of the total imports in April 2024. Within Asia, China stood out as the biggest source, accounting for 47.5% of the imports from the region.
Other notable sources of imports in April 2024 included the EAC, rest of Africa and the Middle East accounting for 27.6%, 13.8% and 13.7% of the total imports, respectively.
3.6 Trade Balance by Region
In April 2024, Uganda registered a trade surplus with the Middle East amounting to USD 35.53 million. Conversely, trade deficits were registered with Asia, rest of Africa, the EAC, rest of Europe, and the European Union, of USD 141.46 million, USD 124.3 million, USD 58.59 million, USD 2.80 million, and USD 0.12 million, respectively during the month.
| Region | Apr 2023 | Mar 2024 | Apr 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 29.86 | 143.77 | 35.53 |
| European Union | 2.94 | 14.89 | -0.12 |
| Rest of Europe | -3.86 | -1.38 | -2.8 |
| EAC | 96.79 | -193.75 | -58.59 |
| Rest of Africa | -71.44 | -98.61 | -124.3 |
| Asia | -231.85 | -255.02 | -141.46 |
| Other Countries | -47.97 | -13.33 | -17.27 |
4 Fiscal Developments12
Government fiscal operations during May 2024 resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of Shs. 1,551.44 billion which was higher than the Shs. 1,026.66 billion target for the month. This was due to shortfalls in revenue & grants and higher-than-planned expenditure during the month.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues and grants | 2,554.65 | 2,376.14 | 93.0% | -178.51 |
| Revenues | 2,392.87 | 2,262.51 | 94.6% | -130.36 |
| Tax | 2,193.26 | 2,143.98 | 97.8% | -49.29 |
| Non-tax | 199.61 | 118.53 | 59.4% | -81.07 |
| Grants | 161.78 | 113.63 | 70.2% | -48.15 |
| o/w Project support | 144.07 | 113.63 | 78.9% | -30.45 |
| Expenditures and lending | 3,581.3 | 3,927.57 | 109.7% | 346.27 |
| Current expenditures | 2,457.95 | 2,888.44 | 117.5% | 430.49 |
| Wages and salaries | 624.92 | 615.8 | 98.5% | -9.12 |
| Interest payments | 623.65 | 729.93 | 117.0% | 106.29 |
| o/w domestic | 590.67 | 686.74 | 116.3% | 96.07 |
| o/w external | 32.98 | 43.19 | 131.0% | 10.21 |
| Other recurrent expenditure | 1,209.38 | 1,542.71 | 127.6% | 333.33 |
| Development expenditures | 1,054.37 | 1,037.96 | 98.4% | -16.42 |
| Domestic | 573.3 | 844.53 | 147.3% | 271.23 |
| External | 481.07 | 193.43 | 40.2% | -287.65 |
| Net lending/repayments | 63.69 | 0 | 0.0% | -63.69 |
| Domestic arrears repayment | 5.3 | 1.18 | 22.2% | -4.12 |
| Domestic fiscal balance | -1,026.66 | -1,551.44 | __ | __ |
4.1 Domestic Revenues
Domestic revenue collections in May 2024 amounted to Shs. 2,262.51 billion, registering a 94.6% performance rate against the target of Shs. 2,392.87 billion, which resulted in a shortfall of Shs. 130.36 billion during the month. Both tax and non-tax performed below their targets during the month.
Tax collections in May 2024 amounted to Shs. 2,143.98 billion against the planned target of Shs. 2,193.26 billion thus a Shs. 49.25 billion shortfall, with both indirect taxes and direct taxes on international trade performing below their respective targets.
Indirect domestic taxes amounted to Shs. 511.38 billion during the month, resulting in a Shs. 81.08 billion shortfall against the target for the month. This performance is on account of lower-than-planned collections under VAT and Excise duty due to tax administration challenges.
Similarly, in May 2024, taxes on international trade and transactions totaled to Shs. 824.51 billion, reflecting a shortfall of Shs. 89.57 billion against the monthly target of Shs. 914.08 billion. This under performance was mainly attributed to lower collections of VAT and excise duty on imports such as cereals, minerals, textiles (worn clothing), and electric machinery, among others, due to administrative challenges.
On the other hand, direct domestic taxes during May 2024 amounted to Shs. 808.16 billion against Shs. 682.40 billion, thus a Shs. 125.76 billion surplus. This was mainly on account of higher than planned collections for PAYE and withholding tax on Treasury bills and bonds during the month. The higher PAYE collections are mainly due to recruitment in both in the public and private sector, and salary enhancement in public sector.
4.2 Expenditure
Total Government expenditure in May 2024 amounted to Shs. 3,927.57 billion against the planned expenditure of Shs. 3,581.30 billion. The higher than planned expenditure was due to supplementary expenditures approved by Parliament.
Recurrent spending was 17.5% higher than the planned expenditure for the month mainly on account of higher non-wage recurrent expenditure and interest payments. The performance of non-wage recurrent expenditure was mainly on account of funds released for National Population and Housing Census 2024 activities, which had been scheduled to take place in August 2023 but took place in May 2024. This resulted in a higher than planned expenditure during the month, and a lower expenditure in August 2023. Domestic interest payments were higher than the initial plan due to higher interest rates.
Development expenditure, on the other hand, was lower than the program target by 1.6% as implementing entities of externally financed projects faced absorption constraints resulting in lower disbursements.
However domestic development amounted to Shs. 844.53 billion indicating at 147.3% performance against planned expenditure of Shs. 573.30 billion. This was driven by investments in the construction, upgrade and maintenance of roads.
5 East Africa Community Developments
5.1 EAC Inflation13
Kenya’s annual headline inflation increased slightly to 5.1% in May 2024 from 5.0% the previous month, as prices went up much faster for food and non-alcoholic beverages, as well as housing and utilities. Rwanda’s annual headline inflation rebounded to 1.3% in May 2024, compared to -0.5% the previous month. This was majorly driven by a significant pick up in the prices for transport, housing & utilities, as well as alcoholic beverages and tobacco. Similarly, the annual headline inflation rate in South Sudan surged to 22.5% in March from -7.4% in February.
Tanzania’s annual headline inflation remained largely unchanged at 3.07% in May compared to 3.13% in April 2024, while that for Burundi slowed down to 12.1% in April from 14.0% in March 2024.
5.2 EAC Exchange Rates14
During the month under review, the currencies within the EAC recorded losses against the USD, save for the Uganda Shilling that strengthened by 0.8%. The Burundi Franc, Rwanda Franc and Kenya Shilling depreciated by 0.2%, 0.5% and 0.1% respectively. The Tanzanian Shilling remained relatively stable depreciating slightly by 0.05%.
5.3 Trade Balance with EAC15
During April 2024, Uganda traded at a deficit with the EAC amounting to USD 58.59 million, a reduction from the USD 193.75 million deficit recorded in March 2024. This was majorly on account of a significant decline in imports from Tanzania, which fell by USD 142.67 million when compared with the previous month.
At country specific level, trade deficits were recorded with Tanzania (USD 151.44 million) and Kenya (USD 38.79 million), while trade surpluses were recorded with D.R.C, South Sudan, Rwanda, and Burundi, amounting to USD 56.38 million, USD 50.32 million, USD 19.07 million, and USD 5.86 million, respectively.
Imports from the EAC decreased by 31.5% to USD 261.49 million in April 2024 from USD 381.58 million the previous month. Contrarily, exports to the region increased by 8.0% from USD 187.84 million in March 2024 to USD 202.90 million in April 2024.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
see glossary↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts on a previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C, South Sudan and Somalia not readily available.↩︎
Data for Somalia not readily available↩︎