March 2024
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2024-04-15
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| D.R.C | Democratic Republic of Congo | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuel and Utilities | |
| FOB | Free on Board | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TzShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
Annual headline inflation was recorded at 3.3% for March 2024 down from 3.4% in February 2024. The drop was a result of declining prices for some food crops and related items as well as a slowdown in price increases in the Energy, Fuel and Utilities (EFU) basket during the month. Core Inflation remained at the same level in March 2024 as it was in February 2024.
The high frequency indicators of economic activity show an increase in economic activity and better business sentiments within the Financial Year 2023/24. This is in spite of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showing a slight decline in private sector activity in March 2024.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) improved by 0.36% to 160.99 in February 2024 from 160.40 in January 2024, illustrating the continued improvement in the level of economic activity.
Despite the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declining below the 50-mark threshold in March 2024, the Business Tendency Index (BTI) was recorded at 55.54 for the month March 2024 which is above the 50- mark threshold, implying that investors and businessmen maintain confidence and positive sentiments about doing business in the Ugandan economy.
Financial Sector
The Ugandan shilling traded at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,895.8/USD in March 2024 from Shs 3,873.6/USD in February 2024, and thus a depreciation of 0.6%. This is a slowdown from the depreciation of 1.8% that was registered for February 2024, implying that the temporary shock the Shilling experienced between January 2024 and February 2024 due to some portfolio investors opting to exit the Ugandan market for Kenya where the yields were higher has started to abate.
The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit increased from 17.3% in January 2024 to 18.1% in February 2024. This was partly due to risk aversion by commercial banks. Similarly, Lending rates for foreign currency-denominated credit also increased to 8.8% in February 2024 from 8.6% recorded in the previous month mainly driven by pressures on the exchange rate.
Yields (interest rates) on treasury Bills also edged upwards for the 91-day and 364-day tenors but remained unchanged for the 182-day tenor at 12.4% in March 2024. This followed the upward revision of the Central Bank Rate (CBR) from 9.5% to 10% in March 2024.
The stock of total outstanding Private Sector Credit increased by 0.9% to Shs 21,741.9 billion in February 2024 from Shs 21,542.7 billion the previous month. This growth was mainly driven by foreign currency denominated credit.
External Sector
Uganda’s export earnings during February 2024 increased by 12.0% to USD 633.00 million from USD 565.40 million in January 2024. This increase was mainly due to higher earnings from non-coffee formal exports such as gold, cotton, simsim, flowers and oil re-exports following increases in their respective volumes during the month.
Similarly, merchandise imports increased by 20.7% to USD 909.24 million in February 2024 from USD 753.54 million in the previous month. This increase was mainly attributed to higher volumes and increased values for both oil and non-oil imports particularly commodities under the categories of mineral products (excluding petroleum products) and machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories during the month.
As a result of the increase in imports being bigger than the increase in export earnings, the trade deficit with the rest of the world amounted to USD 276.25 million which is 46.8% higher than the USD 188.14 million deficit registered in January 2024.
Fiscal Sector
Government operations in March 2024 resulted in a fiscal deficit of Shs 1,222.14 billion which is higher than the initially projected deficit of Shs 170.51 billion for the month. The higher deficit was due to a combination of lower-than expected revenues & grants and higher than planned expenditures for the month.
Total domestic revenues and grants amounted to Shs 2,087.72 billion against a target of Shs 2,703.6 billion implying a shortfall of Shs 615.88 billion. Domestic revenue collections were Shs 2,060.02 billion against a target of Shs 2,446.66 billion, thus a shortfall of Shs 386.64 billion. This shortfall is partly attributed to lower than anticipated sales which affected consumption taxes while taxes on international trade turned out lower than projected due to imports on which VAT and excise duty are levied being lower than expected.
Government expenditure, on the other hand, performed above the program for the month by 15.2%, amounting to Shs 3,309.86 billion against a plan of Shs 2,874.11 billion. This was mainly due to the supplementary budget that was passed for FY2023/24 implying more money available for spending during the month than what was initially planned.
Annual headline inflation across the EAC Partner States generally declined during the month of March 2024. Inflation in Kenya declined to 5.7% in March from 6.3% in February 2024. Similarly, Rwanda’s inflation dropped to 0.6% from 3.2% between the two months. This movement was mainly driven by moderation in prices for commodities categorized under food & non-alcoholic beverages and transportation during the month. The inflation rate in Tanzania remained stable.
Save for the Kenyan shilling, the rest of the EAC Partner States’ currencies depreciated against the US Dollar. The Ugandan and Tanzanian shillings depreciated by 0.6% and 0.8% while the Rwanda and Burundian Francs depreciated by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively during March 2024. The depreciation was on account of increased dollar demand that outmatched supply during the month.
During February 2024, Uganda traded at a deficit of USD 35.26 million with the rest of the EAC Partner States. This movement was on account of a decline in exports and an increase in imports from the region. The Democratic Republic of Congo took the largest share of Uganda’s exports while Tanzania was the largest source of imports during the month.
1 Real Sector Developments
1.1 Inflation
Annual headline inflation receded to 3.3% in March 2024 from 3.4% recorded for the previous month. The drop was a result of declining prices for some food crops and related items as well as a slowdown in price increases in the Energy, Fuel and Utilities (EFU) basket during the month. Core Inflation, on the other hand, remained unchanged.
Annual food crops and related items inflation remained on a downward trajectory, registering a deflation of 0.4% in March 2024 compared to an inflation of 0.5% in the previous month. During March 2024, a number of fruits and vegetables registered declining prices owing to increased harvests supported by favorable weather conditions. Fruits and vegetables that registered the most price declines include bananas, pawpaw, eggplants, cabbage, groundnuts, carrots, nakati, beans, cowpeas, etc. Fresh unskimmed milk also registered a decline in price during the month.
Annual Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) Inflation registered a decline for the first time since September 2023, being recorded at 7.6% in March 2024 down from 8.0% in February 2024.
Whereas the rate of price changes for water (NWSC) and electricity remained unchanged, there was a slowdown in the rate at which prices were increasing for petrol and charcoal which explained, to a large extent, the reduction in EFU inflation.
During March 2024 annual core inflation remained unchanged from the 3.4% recorded in February 2024, implying general price stability during the period. Whereas annual services inflation went up slightly to 5.5% in March 2024 from 5.4% in February 2024, annual ‘other goods’ inflation slowed down to 1.6% in March 2024 compared to 1.8% in February 2024. These opposing movements in the subcomponents of core inflation explain its remaining unchanged overall.
1.2 Economic Activity
The high frequency indicators of economic activity show an increase in economic activity and better business sentiments within the Financial Year 2023/24. In February 2024, the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) improved further by 0.36% to 160.99 from 160.40 recorded in January 2024, showing further improvement in economic activity during the month.
However, though still resilient, there was a slight slowdown in private sector activity in March 2024 as shown by the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) which declined below the threshold of 50 for the first time in 16-months. The PMI was recorded at 49.3 in March 2024 down from 51.7 in February 2024. This was occasioned by reduced customer demand and placement of new orders.
Although the PMI showed a slight decline in private sector activity in March 2024, the Business Tendency Index (BTI) shows positive sentiments going forward.
1.2.1 Business Perceptions
The Business Tendency Index (BTI) was recorded at 55.54 in March 2024 which is above the 50- mark threshold, implying that investors and businessmen have confidence and positive sentiments about doing business in the Ugandan economy.
Investors were most optimistic in the sectors of construction, manufacturing and wholesale trade.
2 Financial Sector Developments
2.1 Exchange Rate Movements
The Ugandan shilling traded at an average mid-rate of Shs 3,895.8/USD in March 2024 from Shs 3,873.6/USD in February 2024, and thus a depreciation of 0.6%. This is a slowdown from the depreciation of 1.8% that was registered for February 2024, implying that the temporary shock the Shilling experienced between January 2024 and February 2024 due to some portfolio investors opting to exit the Ugandan market for Kenya where the yields were higher has started to abate.
The 0.6% depreciation in March 2024 was mainly due to strong domestic demand by corporates particularly from the energy & power, telecommunications, trading, and manufacturing sectors, for import purchases.
2.2 Interest Rate Movements
Bank of Uganda increased the Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 10% in March 2024 from 9.5% that was maintained since the month of August 2023. The increase in the CBR was aimed at stabilizing the shilling exchange rate, and controlling inflationary pressures that could arise out of the weakening of the Shilling and its impact on domestic prices.
2.2.1 Lending Rates4
The weighted average lending rates for Shilling-denominated credit increased from 17.3% in January 2024 to 18.1% in February 2024. This was partly due to risk aversion by commercial banks as February 2024 had more high-risk borrowers especially from the trade and personal and household sectors whereas January 2024 had a number of prime cooperate borrowers whom banks charge lower interest rates as they are less risky.
Similarly, Lending rates for foreign currency-denominated credit also increased to 8.8% in February 2024 from 8.6% recorded in the previous month. This was mainly on account of depreciation pressures on the exchange rates during the month.
2.3 Government Securities
In March 2024, Government raised a total of Shs 982.61 billion from two treasury bill auctions and one treasury bond auction. Particularly, Shs 501.53 was from T-Bills while Shs 481.08 billion was from the T-Bond auction. Shs 605.88 billion went towards refinancing maturing treasury instruments, while the balance of Shs 376.73 billion was used for financing other items of the budget.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2022/23 | 11,334.2 | 3,928 | 7,406.2 |
| Q2 2023/24 | 3,681.5 | 1,558.2 | 2,123.2 |
| Q3 2023/24 | 4,048.9 | 1,495.4 | 2,553.5 |
| February 2024 | 2,170.2 | 1,632.7 | 537.5 |
| March 2024 | 982.6 | 376.7 | 605.9 |
| FY 2023/24 to date | 12,003.2 | 4,736 | 7,267.2 |
2.4 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Following the upward revision of the Monetary policy rate, yields (interest rates) on treasury Bills edged upwards for the 91-day and 364-day tenors but remained unchanged for the 182-day tenor at 12.4% in March 2024. The annualized yields for the 91-day and 364-day tenor slightly increased to 9.8% and 13.3% from 9.6% and 13.1% recorded the previous month, respectively.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio amounting to 2.82 in March 2024, an improvement from 2.38 the previous month. This points to adequate liquidity in the money market.
2.4.1 Yields on Treasury Bonds
Government issued 3-year and 20-year tenor bonds in March. Yields slightly edged upwards for the 3-year bond to 14.999% in March compared to 14.25% offered for the same tenor in the February 2024 private placement. On the other hand, yields remained unchanged for the 20-yesar bond at 16.75%, the same rate offered for the same tenor in February 2024 private placement.
2.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit5
The stock of total outstanding Private Sector Credit increased by 0.9% to Shs 21,741.9 billion in February 2024 from Shs 21,542.7 billion the previous month. This was mainly on account of revaluations in the value for foreign exchange-denominated credit due to depreciation of the shilling against major currencies during the month of February 2024.
The stock of the foreign currency denominated credit increased to Shs 6,603.5 billion in February from Shs 6,377.0 billion recorded the previous month while the stock of shilling-denominated credit reduced to Shs 15,138.4 billion in February 2024 from Shs 15,165.6 billion in January 2024.
2.6 Credit Extensions6
The value of credit approved for disbursement in February 2024 declined by 26.5% from Shs 1,348.8 billion to Shs 991.2 billion. This was mainly due to the increased interest rates and the depreciation pressures on the exchange rates.
Of the total credit extended to the private sector in February 2024, personal and household loans accounted for the biggest share at 37.1% followed by Business, community, and social services (16.6%), Trade (16.2%) and agriculture (13.5%) among others.
3 External Sector Developments
3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance7
During February 2024, Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world widened to USD 276.25 million, a 46.8% increase from USD 188.14 million registered in January 2024. This was on account of an increase in the import bill which more than offset the increase in export earnings during the month.
Compared to February 2023, the trade deficit narrowed from USD 296.07 million mainly on account of an increase in the value of export receipts between the two periods.
3.2 Merchandise Exports
Export earnings during February 2024 amounted to USD 633.00 million, an increase of 12.0% from USD 565.40 million in January 2024. This increase was mainly due to higher earnings from non-coffee formal exports such as gold, cotton, simsim, flowers and oil re-exports following increases in their respective volumes during the month.
Despite the increase in average unit price per 60-kg bag of coffee, export receipts in February 2024 declined to USD 82.56 million, a 3.5% drop from USD 85.57 million registered in January 2024. This decline was mainly driven by the low harvest of Arabica coffee particularly from the Elgon region, as a result of the drought that affected yields.
Italy remained the largest destination of Uganda’s coffee, accounting for 37.7% of the total coffee exports during the month. This was followed by India and Sudan with 11.1% and 9.5% of the total exports respectively.
| Product | Feb-2023 | Jan-2024 | Feb-2024 |
Feb-2024 vs Feb-2023 % Change |
Feb-2024 vs Jan-2024 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 353.815 | 565.403 | 632.996 | 78.906 | 11.955 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 66.026 | 85.566 | 82.564 | 25.048 | -3.508 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.479 | 0.482 | 0.435 | -9.206 | -9.76 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 2.299 | 2.961 | 3.166 | 37.727 | 6.928 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 241.812 | 436.297 | 505.889 | 109.208 | 15.951 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 11.762 | 182.036 | 263.88 | 2,143.436 | 44.96 |
| Cotton | 3.872 | 1.999 | 5.882 | 51.918 | 194.306 |
| Tea | 7.644 | 5.307 | 4.263 | -44.226 | -19.665 |
| Tobacco | 4.978 | 3.507 | 2.889 | -41.964 | -17.618 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 12.458 | 12.19 | 10.317 | -17.188 | -15.363 |
| Simsim | 3.212 | 4.54 | 5.254 | 63.594 | 15.744 |
| Maize | 20.854 | 13.993 | 8.417 | -59.637 | -39.849 |
| Beans | 5.669 | 5.233 | 4.568 | -19.421 | -12.701 |
| Flowers | 6.251 | 5.138 | 5.673 | -9.239 | 10.426 |
| ICBT Exports | 45.977 | 43.54 | 44.543 | -3.12 | 2.303 |
Compared to the same month last year, export receipts grew by 78.9% from USD 353.82 in February 2023. This growth is on account of increased earnings from commodities such as gold, coffee, cotton, simsim and oil re-exports during this period.
3.3 Destination of Exports8
The EAC remained the largest destination of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 29.6% of the total exports during February 2024. Specifically, the Democratic Republic of Congo received the largest share of exports to the region during the month.
Other notable destinations for Uganda’s exports during the month were Asia accounting for 27.8% of the total exports. This was followed by the Middle East with 22.9% and the European Union with 13.5% of the total exports for the month.
3.4 Merchandise Imports9
The value of merchandise imports increased by 20.7% to USD 909.24 million in February 2024 from US$ 753.54 million in the previous month mainly attributed to higher import volumes as well as the depreciated shilling which implied that importers paid more shillings per unit of import. Both oil and non-oil imports, particularly commodities under the categories of mineral products (excluding petroleum products) and machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories increased during the month.
Imports excluding gold grew by 1.4% from USD 679.83 million in January 2024 to USD 689.39 million in February 2024 mainly on account of increased volumes registered for machinery equipment, vehicles and accessories, petroleum products, and base metals and their products during the month.
Year-on-year comparison shows that merchandise imports grew by 39.9% from USD 649.88 million mainly driven by increased volumes for mineral products, base metals and their products, as well as vegetable products, animal products, beverages, fats & oil among others during this period.
3.5 Origin of Imports
Asia remained the largest source of Uganda’s imports, accounting for 38.3% of the total imports in February 2024. On a country-specific level, majority of the imports sourced from the region came from China and India, with the main commodities from these countries being machinery & equipment, vehicles & accessories and chemicals & related products.
Other notable sources of imports during February 2024 included the EAC, the Middle East and the Rest of Africa accounting for 24.5%, 14.8% and 12.1% of the total imports respectively.
3.6 Trade Balance by Region
During February 2024, Uganda traded at surpluses with the Middle East, European Union and the Rest of Europe of USD 34.50 million, USD 20.17 million and USD 0.05 million respectively.
On the other hand, Uganda traded at deficits with Asia, Rest of Africa and the EAC of USD 171.93 million, USD 110.25 million and USD 35.26 million, respectively during the month.
| Region | Feb 2023 | Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | -103.94 | 71.52 | 34.5 |
| European Union | -19.32 | 44.93 | 20.17 |
| Rest of Europe | -20.55 | -6.56 | 0.05 |
| EAC | 106.37 | 80.63 | -35.26 |
| Rest of Africa | -4.6 | -73.72 | -110.25 |
| Asia | -246.51 | -292.76 | -171.93 |
| Other Countries | -7.53 | -12.18 | -13.52 |
4 Fiscal Developments10
In March 2024, government operations led to a fiscal deficit of Shs 1,222.14 billion which is higher than the initially projected deficit of Shs 170.51 billion for the month. This was due to a combination of lower-than expected revenues & grants and higher than planned expenditures for the month.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues and grants | 2,703.6 | 2,087.72 | 77.2% | -615.88 |
| Revenues | 2,446.66 | 2,060.02 | 84.2% | -386.64 |
| Tax | 2,239.4 | 1,922.03 | 85.8% | -317.37 |
| Non-tax | 207.26 | 137.98 | 66.6% | -69.28 |
| Grants | 256.94 | 27.7 | 10.8% | -229.24 |
| o/w Project support | 253.22 | 27.7 | 10.9% | -225.52 |
| Expenditures and lending | 2,874.11 | 3,309.86 | 115.2% | 435.75 |
| Current expenditures | 1,789.82 | 2,690.71 | 150.3% | 900.89 |
| Wages and salaries | 572.18 | 649.1 | 113.4% | 76.92 |
| Interest payments | 471.24 | 521.45 | 110.7% | 50.21 |
| o/w domestic | 356.87 | 356.6 | 99.9% | -0.27 |
| o/w external | 114.37 | 164.85 | 144.1% | 50.47 |
| Other recurrent expenditure | 746.4 | 1,520.16 | 203.7% | 773.76 |
| Development expenditures | 1,072.7 | 617.66 | 57.6% | -455.04 |
| Domestic | 340.44 | 376.04 | 110.5% | 35.61 |
| External | 732.27 | 241.62 | 33.0% | -490.65 |
| Net lending/repayments | 2.75 | 0 | 0.0% | -2.75 |
| o/w HPP GoU | 0 | 0 | __ | 0 |
| HPP Exim | 2.75 | 0 | 0.0% | -2.75 |
| Domestic arrears repayment | 8.84 | 1.49 | 16.9% | -7.34 |
| Domestic fiscal balance | -170.51 | -1,222.14 | __ | __ |
4.1 Domestic Revenues
Domestic revenue collections totaled to Shs 2,060.02 billion in March 2024, comprising of Shs 1,922.03 billion tax revenue and Shs 137.98 billion non-tax revenue. Both tax and non-tax revenues fell short of their respective targets for the month, resulting in a total shortfall of Shs 386.64 billion for domestic revenues.
Tax revenue fell short of the Shs 1,922.03 billion target by Shs 317.37 billion, with indirect domestic taxes and taxes on international trade performing at 86.37% and 79.58% respectively. The shortfall in taxes on international trade, particularly Value Added Tax (VAT) on imports, amounted to Shs 88.57 billion. This was mainly on account of lower-than-expected imports on which these taxes are levied. This follows increased imports from the EAC region as well as intermediate goods used in production which attract little or no taxes.
Additionally, local excise duty and VAT were below their targets by Shs 17.77 billion and Shs 65.36 billion respectively, contributing to the underperformance of indirect domestic taxes by 13.63% against the target of Shs 609.67 billion.
Similarly, direct domestic taxes were below the target of Shs 709.51 billion by Shs 38.77 billion, primarily due to lower-than-expected revenue from treasury bills and bonds, corporate tax, withholding tax, and taxes on interest earnings.
4.2 Expenditure
In March 2024, total government expenditure amounted to Shs 3,309.86 billion, which was above the programmed expenditure of Shs 2,874.11 billion for the month, indicating a performance rate of 115.2%.
The higher than programmed performance was due to higher spending on recurrent items, which exceeded the planned amount by 50.3% as wage, interest payments and non-wage spending were all above plan for the month. This was due to the supplementary budget allocated for these items during the financial year to cater for wage and non-wage shortfalls, thus resulting in greater expenditures than initially anticipated at budget time when the monthly programs were set.
Interest payments were also above the program by 10.7% for the month mainly due to exchange rate depreciation which increased the Shilling amount that must be paid for external debt service.
On the other hand, development expenditures performed at 57.6% of the program for the month mainly due to slow disbursement of funds for externally funded development projects. Whereas domestically financed development expenditure was 10.5% higher than the initial plan, externally financed expenditure on projects was only 33.0% on account of challenges in counterpart funding and acquisition of right of way among others that are affecting execution of projects this financial year.
5 East Africa Community Developments
5.1 EAC Inflation11
There was a general decline in annual headline inflation among the EAC Partner States during the month of March 2024. Headline inflation in Kenya was recorded at 5.7% in March 2024, down from 6.3% in February 2024. This is the lowest rate recorded since March 2022 as prices for food & non-alcoholic beverages, housing & utilities, and transportation moderated during March 2024.
Similarly, headline inflation in Rwanda dropped to 0.6% in March 2024, down from 3.2% the previous month. This is the lowest it has been in over two years. The sharp deceleration in overall inflation can be attributed to a renewed decrease in prices of food & non-alcoholic beverages during the month.
On the other hand, Tanzania’s annual headline inflation remained steady for the fourth consecutive month at 3.0% in March 2024.
5.2 EAC Exchange Rates12
The Kenyan shilling was the only currency in the region that strengthened against the US Dollar, registering an appreciation of 9.9% during the month. This is largely ascribed to big dollar inflows from both the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank as well as the issuance of their new Eurobond.
On the hand, the Ugandan & Tanzanian shilling and Rwandan & Burundi francs registered depreciations of 0.6%, 0.8%, 0.7% and 0.2% respectively, mainly on account of dollar demand that outmatched supply during the month.
5.3 Trade Balance with EAC
In February 2024, Uganda traded with the EAC Partner States at a deficit worth USD 35.26 million, a decline from a surplus of USD 80.63 million registered in January 2024. This movement was on account of a decline in exports and increase in imports from the region.
On a country-specific level, Uganda traded at surpluses with the Democratic Republic of Congo (USD 56.52 million), South Sudan (USD 53.16 million), Burundi (USD 5.60 million) and Rwanda (USD 17.12 million) while she traded at deficits with Tanzania (USD 127.32 million) and Kenya (USD 40.33 million).
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) took the largest share of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 31.6% (USD 59.23 million) during the month. This was closely followed by South Sudan and Kenya at 29.9% and 20.9% respectively.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎