List of Acronyms

Acronym		Expansion
B.Franc		Burundian Franc
BOU		Bank of Uganda
BTI		Business Tendency Index
CBR		Central Bank Rate
CIEA		Composite Index of Economic Activity
D.R.C		Democratic Republic of Congo
EAC		East African Community
EFU		Energy, Fuel and Utilities
FOB		Free on Board
FX		Foreign Exchange
FY		Financial Year
GBP		British Pound Sterling
ICBT		Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs		Kenyan Shilling
MDAs		Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED		Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGOs		Non-Governmental Organisations
PAYE		Pay as You Earn
PMI		Purchasing Managers’ Index
PSC		Private Sector Credit
R.Franc		Rwandan Franc
T-Bills		Treasury Bills
T-Bonds		Treasury Bonds
TzShs		Tanzanian Shilling
UBOS		Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs / Shs		Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD		United States Dollar
VAT		Value Added Tax
YTM		Yield to Maturity

Summary¹

Real Sector

Economic activity as well as business conditions continued to improve albeit at a slower pace as shown by the high frequency indicators of economic activity (The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA), the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and the Business Tendency Index (BTI)).
The CIEA increased from 160.13 in November 2023 to 160.37 in December 2023 signaling a further improvement in economic activity. This however represented a slower growth of 0.15% in December 2023 when compared to a growth of 0.3% in November 2023.
The PMI remained above the threshold of 50 signaling a further improvement in business conditions as output, new orders and consumer demand strengthened. The index however declined slightly to 54.0 in January 2024 from 54.8 the previous month due to rising input costs.
Sentiments about doing business in Uganda remained optimistic and continued to improve during the month as shown by the Business Tendency Index which remained above its threshold of 50, increasing to 60.15 in January 2024 from 59.58 the previous month.
Annual headline inflation rose to 2.8% in January 2024 from 2.6% the previous month due to an increase in all the three components of inflation i.e. annual core, food crops and Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) inflation. Specifically, the increase in annual headline inflation was mainly on account of a rise in the rate at which the cost of services and food crops increased as well as a rise in the cost of liquid fuels when compared to the same period a year back.

Financial Sector

In January 2024 the Uganda Shilling depreciated by 0.64%, trading at an average midrate of Shs 3,805.03/US$ from Shs 3,780.66/US$. This was due to high demand for the dollar from manufacturing, oil, telecom and energy firms.
There was a reduction in the lending rates for both Shilling and foreign currency denominated credit from 16.79% and 8.96% in November, 2023 to 16.70% and 8.79%, respectively in December 2023. This was partly due to the relatively low and stable inflation.
Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills remained unchanged for the 91 and 182 day tenors at 9.8% and 12.4% respectively in January 2024. The annualized yield for the 364-day tenor edged upwards to 13.1% from 12.8% recorded the previous month.
Total stock of outstanding Private Sector Credit increased by 1.3% to Shs 21,703.14 billion in December 2023 from Shs 21,426.46 billion the previous month, partly due to the lower lending rates and continued improvement in economic activity during the month.

External Sector

During December 2023, Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed by 9.9% to USD 269.87 million, from USD 299.65 million in November 2023. This was on account of both a reduction in the import bill and an increase in export receipts.
Uganda exported merchandise worth USD 616.36 million in December 2023. This represented a 0.2% increase when compared to USD 615.05 million exported in November 2023. This increase was majorly attributed to higher export earnings from cotton, simsim and tobacco.
The value of merchandise imports decreased by 3.1% from USD 914.70 million in November 2023 to USD 886.24 million in December 2023. This decrease was largely attributed to lower private sector imports particularly wood & wood products, electricity, petroleum products, animals & animal products, among others.

Fiscal Sector

Domestic revenue collections in January 2024 amounted to UShs 2,225.16 billion, lower than the month’s target of UShs 2,385.55 billion. This shortfall was mainly on account of lower than anticipated collections of Value Added Tax (VAT), Excise duty and taxes on international trade.
Government expenditure and net lending amounted to UShs 3,171.07 billion in January 2024. This was against a programmed expenditure of UShs 4,155.22 billion. This performance was on account of lower-than-planned spending for domestically financed expenditure on both the development projects as well as on recurrent items.
The revenue shortfalls were more than offset by the lower than planned expenditure, resulting in a deficit of UShs 926.59 billion during the month which is lower than the planned deficit of Shs 1,650.54 billion.

East African Community

In January 2024, movements in annual headline inflation varied across EAC Partner States. Specifically, annual headline inflation increased in Uganda and Kenya, remained unchanged from the previous month in Tanzania and declined in Rwanda. Kenya’s inflation was the highest at 6.9%, which was an increase from 6.6% the previous month. Uganda’s inflation remained lowest at 2.8% despite the increase from the previous month.²
All currencies within the EAC region registered depreciations against the US Dollar. Kenya had the highest depreciation rate at 3.6% followed by Rwanda and Uganda at 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Tanzanian Shilling and Burundian Franc both depreciated at 0.2%.³
In December 2023, Uganda traded at a surplus of USD 22.30 million with the rest of the EAC Partner States, a shift from a deficit of USD 22.67 million recorded the previous month. This was mainly on account of the trade surpluses recorded with Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi which more than offset the deficits registered with Tanzania and Kenya.

1 Real Sector Developments

1.1 Inflation

Annual headline inflation rose to 2.8% in January 2024 from 2.6% the previous month as all the three components of inflation i.e. annual core, food crops and EFU inflation, increased. The increase in annual headline inflation was mainly on account of a rise in the rate at which the cost of services and food crops increased as well as a rise in the cost of liquid fuels when compared to the same period a year back.

Annual core inflation increased to 2.4% in January from 2.3% recorded the previous month majorly driven by an increase in the rate at which the cost of services rose during the month. Costs of transport services particularly taxi and hired car services registered an annual increase of 5.6% in January from 2.1% the previous month. Costs of religious services, in particular church wedding fees increased annually by 30.5% in January 2024 from 9.5% the previous month. Other services such as financial services, restaurant and accommodation services, as well as health services also registered higher annual price increases during the month.

The increase in core inflation was also partly driven by a slowdown in the rate at which prices of manufactured foods decreased during the month. These manufactured foods included; whole grain maize, maize flour, sorghum grains, cassava flour and cooking oil.

Annual inflation for food crops and related items increased slightly to 2.6% in January 2024 from 2.5% the previous month. This was largely due to an increase in the rate at which prices of some food crops and related items increased. Within this basket, food items such as skimmed milk, pineapples, mangoes, passion fruits, oranges, cabbages, green peppers, carrots and onions all registered a higher annual increase in prices when compared to the previous month. The increase in annual food crop inflation was also driven by a general slowdown in the rate at which prices of some other food crops decreased. These included; pumpkin and root tubers such as Irish potatoes, whole cassava and sweet potatoes.

Annual EFU inflation also increased to 7.4% from 6.4% the previous month. This was mainly driven by an increase in the cost of liquid energy fuels (diesel, petrol, kerosene and liquefied gas), whose price index registered an annual increase of 0.2% in January from a decline of -2.2% the previous month.

A month on month analysis calculated for the price index of liquid energy fuels however, showed declines in December 2023 and January 2024 at -0.7% and -0.5% respectively. This pointed to the likelihood that the annual increase in the cost of liquid energy fuels in January 2024 could be temporary.

1.2 Economic Activity

Overall, economic activity as well as prospects about business conditions continued to strengthen as shown by the high-frequency indicators of economic activity (The Composite Index of Economic Activity, the Purchasing Managers Index and the Business Tendency Index).

The Composite Index of Economic Activity continued to increase albeit at a slower pace from 160.13 in November 2023 to 160.37 in December 2023. This represented a month on month growth of 0.15% in January, lower than the growth of 0.3% in November 2023. Nonetheless, the increase signaled a further improvement in economic activity.

At sectoral level, growth in the CIEA was majorly attributed to a recovery in the agricultural sector, whose index of economic activity registered a growth of 0.3% in December 2023 after recording negative growth rates of -0.2%, -0.5% and -0.8% in September, October and November 2023 respectively. Services and industry sectors also registered growth although at a slower pace.

The PMI remained above the threshold of 50 signaling a further improvement in business conditions. Despite this, the index declined slightly to 54.0 in January 2024 from 54.8 the previous month. The decline in the index was mainly on account of rising input costs which in turn forced some companies to raise their selling prices. Nonetheless, there were further improvements in output and new orders as consumer demand strengthened.

At a sectoral level, increases in activity were observed across the agriculture, construction, industry, services and wholesale & retail sectors.

1.2.1 Business Perceptions

Sentiments about doing business in Uganda remained optimistic and continued to improve during the month as shown by the Business Tendency Index which remained above its threshold of 50, increasing to 60.15 in January 2024 from 59.58 the previous month.

Key indicators measured by the index pointed to a positive outlook in the economy as the business community was more optimistic about the present business situation, the business situation in the next three months, increased order volumes by suppliers and the number of employees.

At sectoral level, business players in all observed sectors i.e. construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services sectors remained optimistic with their respective indices above the threshold of 50. Of these sectors however, the agricultural sector was less optimistic when compared to the previous month, especially in regard to the business situation in the next three months.

2 Financial Sector Developments

2.1 Exchange Rate Movements

The Ugandan Shilling depreciated by 0.64% against the US dollar, trading at an average midrate of Shs 3,805.03/US$ in January, 2024 compared at an average midrate of Shs 3,780.66/US$ the previous month. This was due to higher demand for the dollar from manufacturing, oil, telecom and energy firms which outstripped the increased supply from higher export receipts and project aid inflows.

The Shilling also weakened against the Great Britain Pound and the Euro recording depreciation rates of 1.03% and 0.68%, respectively in January 2024 compared to the month before.

2.2 Interest Rate Movements

The Central Bank Rate (CBR) was maintained at 9.5% for the sixth consecutive month in January, 2024 by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of Bank of Uganda. The decision was premised on the fact that the prevailing monetary policy stance was sufficient to keep inflation around its medium-term target of 5% while supporting economic growth.

2.2.1 Lending Rates⁴

The weighted average for lending rates on shilling denominated credit was 16.70% in December 2023, a reduction from a weighted average of 16.79% recorded in November 2023. This decline was partly attributed to easing inflationary pressures. Similarly, lending rates charged on foreign currency denominated credit declined from 8.96% in November 2023 to 8.79% in December 2023.

2.3 Government Securities

In January 2024, Shs. 896.08 billion was raised from three auctions held in the domestic securities market. Of the amount raised, Shs 506.48 billion was from T-Bills and Shs 389.60 billion was from T-bonds. The total amount raised from the domestic market was used for refinancing of maturing securities.

Breakdown of Government Securities (UShs Billion) [Source: MOFPED]
	Total Issuances	Financing other items in the Government budget	Refinancing
FY 2022/23	11,334.2	3,928	7,406.2
Q1 2023/24	4,272.8	1,682.4	2,590.5
Q2 2023/24	3,681.5	1,558.2	2,123.2
January 2024	896.1	-514.1	1,410.2
FY 2023/24 to date	8,850.4	2,726.5	6,123.9

2.4 Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

Yields (interest rates) on Treasury Bills remained unchanged for the 91 and 182 day tenors at 9.8% and 12.3% respectively in January 2024. The annualised yield for the 364-day tenor edged upwards to 13.1% from 12.8% recorded the previous month.

All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio being recorded at 1.94 in January 2024.

2.4.1 Yields on Treasury Bonds

During the month, Government reopened⁵ two bonds of 2 year and 10 year tenors. In comparison to the previous issuance of similar securities, the yields of both bonds edged upwards; from 13.0% to 13.2% for the 2-year tenor and from 15.0% to 15.5% for the 10 year tenor. The rise in yields during the month follows the increase in additional borrowing requirement by Government approved by parliament in December 2023.

2.5 Outstanding Private Sector Credit⁶

Total stock of outstanding private sector credit was recorded at Shs 21,703.14 billion in December 2023. This represents an increase of 1.3% from the Shs 21,426.46 billion recorded for the previous month. Of the total stock of private sector credit as at end of December 2023, majority (70.3%) was denominated in Uganda Shillings (equivalent to Shs 15,267.53 billion) while the remainder was denominated in foreign currencies (equivalent to Shs 6,435.60 billion). The growth in the stock of private sector credit during the month was due to the continued recovery in economic activity as well as the continued reduction in lending rates.

2.6 Credit Extensions⁷

In December 2023, a total of Shs 883.13 billion was extended to the private sector by lending institutions against applications amounting to Shs 1,562.19 billion. This implied an approval rate of 56.5%, lower than the approval rate of 59.6% in November 2023.

Personal and household loans continued to account for the bulk of total credit extended to the private sector, with 29.8% in December 2023, up from 27.8% in the previous month. This was followed by trade which accounted for 20.5%, building, construction & real estate at 15.2%, and agriculture at 12.0%. These four sectors accounted for 77.5% of total credit extended to the private sector.

3 External Sector Developments

3.1 Merchandise Trade Balance⁸

During December 2023, Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world narrowed both on a monthly and annual basis. Between November and December 2023, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 9.9% from USD 299.65 million to USD 269.87 million on account of both a reduction in the import bill and an increase in export receipts.

Year-on-year comparison shows that the merchandise trade deficit declined by 10.9% from USD 302.77 million in December 2022 to USD 269.87 million in December 2023. This was on account of an increase in the export receipts which more than offset the increase in the import bill.

3.2 Merchandise Exports

In December 2023, Uganda exported merchandise worth USD 616.36 million. This represented a 0.2% increase in comparison to USD 615.05 million exported in November 2023. This increase was majorly attributed to higher export earnings from simsim, tobacco and cotton registered during the month.

In comparison to the same month the previous year, merchandise exports grew by 65.8% from USD 371.81 million in December 2022 to USD 616.36 million in December 2023. This was attributed to increased export earnings from gold, cotton, oil re-exports, tobacco among others.

Coffee exports during the month amounted to USD 65.94 million, a 6.7% decrease from 70.68 million registered in November 2023. This decrease was partly due to delayed harvests and drying of newly harvested coffee caused by heavy rains.

However, when compared to the same month the previous year, coffee exports grew by 10.8% from USD 59.54 million in December 2022, to USD 65.94 million in December 2023. This was partly attributed to the increase in coffee prices on the global scene.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) [Source: BOU and MOFPED Calc.]
Product	Dec-2022	Nov-2023	Dec-2023	Dec-2023 vs Dec-2022 % Change	Dec-2023 vs Nov-2023 % Change
Total Exports	371.81	615.05	616.36	65.77	0.21
Coffee
Value Exported	59.54	70.68	65.94	10.75	-6.71
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags)	0.42	0.42	0.4	-4.18	-5.54
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee)	2.37	2.77	2.74	15.58	-1.24
Non-Coffee Formal Exports	270.67	498.88	505.83	86.88	1.39
of which:
Mineral Products	15.32	258.79	241.26	1,474.8	-6.78
Cotton	1.06	0	1.32	25.19	42,840.05
Tea	8.84	5.96	4.82	-45.48	-19.03
Tobacco	4.89	5.01	5.68	16.25	13.35
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional)	14.58	12.33	11.78	-19.2	-4.42
Simsim	2.86	1.85	3.15	10.12	70.22
Maize	20.48	23.05	12.27	-40.08	-46.78
Beans	14.51	12.4	11.89	-18.04	-4.08
Flowers	4.1	4.19	4.34	5.82	3.66
ICBT Exports	41.6	45.49	44.6	7.2	-1.97

During the month of December 2023, Italy remained the major market for Uganda’s coffee exports accounting for 45% of the total coffee exports compared to 27.68 % recorded the previous month. This was followed by India, Germany, Morocco and Spain at 12.05%, 11.47%, 6.12% and 5.96% respectively.

3.3 Destination of Exports⁹

The EAC remained the top destination of Uganda’s exports in December 2023, accounting for 37.6% of the total market share. Among the EAC Partner States, D.R.C received the largest share of Uganda’s exports, constituting 24.2% of the total exports to the region.

Following the EAC, the Middle East and Asia emerged as the second and third top destinations for Uganda’s exports, accounting for 30.9% and 15.8% respectively. Notably, within the Middle East, the United Arab Emirates remained the leading destination, absorbing 98.3% of Uganda’s total exports to the region.

3.4 Merchandise Imports¹⁰

The value of merchandise imports decreased by 3.1% from USD 914.70 million in November 2023 to USD 886.24 million in December 2023. This decrease was largely attributed to lower private sector imports particularly wood and wood products, electricity, petroleum products, animals and animal products, among others.

Conversely, comparison with the same month last year shows that merchandise imports grew by 31.4% from USD 674.59 million in December 2022, to USD 886.24 million in December 2023. This increase was mainly driven by increased import volumes for mineral products (excluding petroleum products), electricity, machinery equipment and vehicles and accessories.

3.5 Origin of Imports

Asia remained Uganda’s largest source of imports in December 2023, accounting for 41.2% of the total imports. Within Asia, China and India were the major contributors, accounting for 61.9% of the imports from the region.

Other notable regions included the EAC, the Rest of Africa and Middle East, which accounted for 23.6%, 15.1% and 10.2% of the total imports respectively. Within the EAC region, Tanzania and Kenya emerged as the major sources of Uganda’s merchandise imports, accounting for 66.3% and 30.6% of the total imports from the region, respectively.

3.6 Trade Balance by Region

In December 2023, Uganda traded at surpluses with the Middle East, European Union and EAC at USD 99.72 million, USD 23.32 million and USD 22.30 million respectively.

On the other hand, trade deficits were registered with Asia, the Rest of Africa and the Rest of Europe at USD 267.64 million, USD 118.15 million and USD 6.64 million respectively.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) [Source: BOU]
Region	Dec 2022	Nov 2023	Dec 2023
Middle East	-119.52	54.11	99.72
European Union	-10.54	-9.89	23.32
EAC	135.36	-22.67	22.3
Rest of Europe	-11.42	0.66	-6.64
Rest of Africa	-11.56	-106.37	-118.15
Asia	-281.91	-203.48	-267.64
Other Countries	-3.18	-12	-22.79

4 Fiscal Developments¹¹

Government fiscal operations in January 2024 resulted in an overall deficit worth Shs 926.59 billion against the planned deficit of Shs 1,650.54 billion. The lower-than-planned deficit was on account of expenditure and net lending being lower than what had been programmed for the month.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations January 2024 (UShs Billion) [Source: MOFPED]
Shs Billion	Program	Outturn	Performance	Deviation
Revenues and grants	2,504.68	2,244.47	89.6%	-260.21
Revenues	2,385.55	2,225.16	93.3%	-160.39
Tax	2,212.11	2,122.54	96.0%	-89.57
Non-tax	173.44	102.62	59.2%	-70.82
Grants	119.13	19.31	16.2%	-99.81
o/w Project support	106.19	19.31	18.2%	-86.88
Expenditures and lending	4,155.22	3,171.07	76.3%	-984.15
Current expenditures	2,865.68	2,507.5	87.5%	-358.18
Wages and salaries	624.51	582.38	93.3%	-42.12
Interest payments	1,144.16	1,144.16	100.0%	0
o/w domestic	936.44	936.44	100.0%	0
o/w external	207.73	207.73	100.0%	0
Other recurrent expenditure	1,097.01	780.95	71.2%	-316.05
Development expenditures	1,221.72	652.47	53.4%	-569.26
Domestic	914.49	305.94	33.5%	-608.55
External	307.23	346.53	112.8%	39.29
Net lending/repayments	63.35	0	0.0%	-63.35
o/w HPP GoU	0	0	__	0
HPP Exim	63.35	0	0.0%	-63.35
Domestic arrears repayment	4.47	11.1	248.5%	6.63
Domestic fiscal balance	-1,650.54	-926.59	__	__

4.1 Domestic Revenues

Domestic revenue collections during January 2024 amounted to Shs 2,225.16 billion against the month’s target of Shs 2,385.55 billion. This implies a performance rate of 93.3% and thus a Shs 160.39 billion shortfall as both tax and non-tax revenues were lower than their respective targets for the month.

Tax revenue collections for the month amounted to Shs 2,122.54 billion, posting a 95.9% performance against the planned Shs 2,212.11 billion. This lower-than-target performance was mainly driven by the shortfalls in collections for indirect domestic taxes (Shs 55.89 Billion) and taxes on international trade (Shs 66.04 billion) which more than offset the Shs 39.70 billion surplus registered for direct tax collections during the month.

Indirect domestic tax collections amounted to Shs 575.33 billion, implying a 91.2% performance rate against the planned target of Shs 631.22 billion during January 2024. This was on account of lower than anticipated collections of VAT and Excise duty partly occasioned by tax administration challenges such as the difficulty in effectively implementing EFRIS and the Digital Tax Stamp (DTS).

Taxes on international trade registered a shortfall against the planned Shs 877.20 billion target for the month. This was mainly due to lower-than-projected imports on which VAT and Excise duty are charged.

On the other hand, direct domestic taxes amounted to Shs 739.58 billion against the planned Shs 699.87 billion for the month. This surplus was mainly on account of higher collections for PAYE, Corporate tax, and Withholding tax collections during the month.

4.2 Expenditure

Government expenditure and net lending in January 2024 amounted to Shs 3,171.07 billion, a 76.3% performance rate against the Shs 4,155.22 billion plan for the month. This performance was on account of lower-than-planned spending for domestically financed expenditure on both the development projects as well as on recurrent items, all partly due to frontloading of expenditures in the first half of the year compared to the earlier plan.

On the other hand, externally financed expenditure on development projects amounted to Shs 3456.53 billion against an initial plan of Shs 307.23 billion for the month. The higher-than-planned spending for this subcategory was mainly explained by higher disbursements from the International Development Association during the month.

5 East Africa Community Developments

5.1 EAC Inflation¹²

In January 2024, movements in annual headline inflation varied across EAC Partner States. Specifically, annual headline inflation increased in Uganda and Kenya, remained unchanged from the previous month in Tanzania and declined in Rwanda.

Given the available data, Kenya’s inflation was the highest at 6.9% an increase from 6.6% the previous month. This increase was largely on account of rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, and costs of housing and utilities.

Annual headline inflation in Rwanda dropped by half to 3.1% in January from 6.2% the previous month. This decline was driven by a slowdown in the rate at which prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, alcoholic beverages and tobacco as well as transportation increased.

In spite of the fact that Uganda’s annual headline inflation increased, it remained lowest across the region.

5.2 EAC Exchange Rates¹³

All currencies within the EAC region registered depreciations against the US Dollar. Kenya had the highest depreciation rate at 3.6% followed by Rwanda and Uganda at 1.0% and 0.6%, respectively, while the Tanzanian Shilling and Burundian Franc both depreciated at 0.2%. The high depreciation of the Kenyan Shilling was mainly attributed to increased demand for dollars to settle public debt obligations and the higher import bill partly due to the high global oil prices.

5.3 Trade Balance with EAC

In December 2023, Uganda traded at a surplus of USD 22.30 million with the rest of the EAC Partner States, a shift from a deficit of USD 22.67 million recorded the previous month. Exports to the EAC Partner States amounted to USD 231.47 million while imports amounted to USD 209.17 million for the period under review.

On a country specific level, Uganda traded at surpluses of USD 53.07 million with the Democratic Republic of Congo, USD 41.68 million with South Sudan, USD 23.10 million with Rwanda and USD 5.25 million with Burundi; while deficits were recorded with Tanzania (USD 88.41 million) and Kenya (USD 12.39 million).

Glossary

Term	Description
Bid to cover ratio	This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI	The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA	CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation	This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation	This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan	This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor	This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI	The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM)	Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts on a previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data on inflation for Burundi, D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on Exchange Rates for D.R.C and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎

January 2024

Performance of the Economy Report

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

2024-02-23