October 2023
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2023-11-19
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
Overall, economic activity as well as prospects about business conditions continued to improve as shown by the high-frequency indicators of economic activity (CIEA, PMI and BTI).
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased marginally by 0.11% from 161.8 in August 2023 to 162.02 in September 2023, signaling a sustained improvement in economic activity.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased slightly from 52.9 in September 2023 to 52.4 in October 2023 but remained above the threshold of 50, signaling a further improvement in the business environment.
Sentiments about doing business in Uganda were also positive during the month as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which increased from 58.6 in September 2023 to 60.5 in October 2023.
Annual headline inflation continued on a downward trend to 2.4% in October 2023 from 2.7% recorded in the previous month. This was mainly driven by a general slowdown in price increases for food (both manufactured food and food crops) when compared to the same period a year back. As a result, both core and food crop inflation declined to 2.0% and 6.6% in October, 2023 compared to 2.4% and 7.9% in September 2023, respectively.
Financial Sector
The Shilling depreciated against the US dollar by 0.5% to a monthly average rate of Shs 3,755.63/USD up from Shs 3,738.02/USD in September 2023. This was mainly attributed to higher portfolio outflows due to an increase in interest rates in advanced economies, higher debt service obligations, and the global strengthening of the US Dollar.
In October 2023, yields (interest rates) edged downwards for the 91-day tenor, remained unchanged for the 182-day tenor, and slightly increased for the 364-day tenor. The annualized yields for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors for October 2023 were 9.3%, 12.4% and 12.9%, compared to 10.0%, 12.4% and 12.8% in September 2023, respectively.
In September 2023 the commercial bank lending rates for both Shilling and foreign currency denominated credit increased to 18.95% and 9.00%, compared to 18.40% and 8.57%, respectively, recorded the previous month.
The stock of total outstanding Private Sector Credit grew by 1.6% to Shs. 21,167.96 billion in September 2023 from Shs 20,841.38 billion in August 2023, with increases recorded for both shillings and foreign currency denominated credit. This rise was in part due to a continued pick-up in economic activity.
External Sector
During September 2023, Uganda’s trade deficit with the Rest of the World narrowed by 15.3% to USD 296.35 million, from USD 349.72 million in August 2023. This was on account of a decrease in the import bill which more than offset the reduction in export receipts. In addition, compared to the same month last year, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 14.7% from USD 347.30 million in September 2022.
The merchandise exports grew by 93.1% from USD 327.28 million in September 2022 to USD 632.06 million in September 2023. This was attributed to increased export earnings from gold, coffee, maize among others.
The value of merchandise imports decreased by 8.9% from USD 1,019.60 million in August 2023 to USD 928.41 million in September 2023. This decrease was largely attributed to lower private sector imports, particularly mineral products, petroleum products, chemical & related products and wood & wood products.
Fiscal Sector
Government fiscal operations during October 2023 resulted into a fiscal deficit of Shs 2,269.87 billion. This was higher than the anticipated deficit on account of lower than targeted domestic revenues and higher than planned expenditure during the month.
Domestic revenue collections during the month amounted to Shs 1,984.27 Billion against the projected Shs 2,137.35 billion for the month. This shortfall was mainly due to underperformance of the taxes on international trade collections during the month.
Government expenditure in October 2023 amounted to Shs 4,341.53 billion, implying that expenditure was 11.8% above the Shs 3,882.29 billion target for the month. This was due to higher spending for non-wage, non-interest recurrent expenditure during the month.
East African Community
Annual headline inflation was on a general declining trend for most EAC Partner States during the month. Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda’s inflation reduced to 2.4%, 3.2% and 12.9% in October 2023, compared to 2.7%, 3.3% and 18.4%, respectively in September, 2023.
There was a general depreciation of all currencies within the EAC Partner States, as the US Dollar continued to strengthen globally.
In September 2023, Uganda traded at a surplus of USD 9.45 million with the EAC, a shift from a deficit of USD 49.9 million in the previous month. This was on account of both a reduction in imports (by USD 41.94 million) and an increase in exports (by USD 17.41 million).
Real Sector Developments
Inflation
Headline inflation continued on a downward trend to 2.4% in October 2023 from 2.7% recorded in the previous month. This was mainly driven by a general slowdown in the increase in prices for food (both manufactured food and food crops) when compared to the same period a year back.
As a result, both core and food crop inflation declined during the month as shown in Figure 1 below.
Annual core inflation reduced further to 2.0% in October 2023 from 2.4 % in September 2023. This was mainly driven by a reduction in prices for certain manufactured foods such as maize flour, wheat flour, related baked products and silver fish. In addition, there was a slowdown in the increase in prices of rice, sugar and cassava flour, among others.
Annual inflation for food crops and related items also decreased to 6.6% in October 2023 from 7.9% recorded in the previous month. This decline was attributed to the rise in food crop production compared to the same period a year back, reflecting increased food production due to favorable weather conditions. Subsequently, prices of food crops such as whole cassava, irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, ground nuts, cabbage, and watermelons recorded declines while there was a slowdown in the increase in prices for onions, green peppers, peas, bananas, passion fruits, papaya and avocado.
Annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities’ inflation picked up in October 2023 to 2.2% from a deflation of -1.2% in the previous month, largely reflecting a rise in fuel prices. This marks the first general price increase in the EFU basket of goods and services following consistent declines since June 2023.
This increase in EFU inflation was attributed to an increase in liquid fuel prices resulting from a corresponding increase in international oil prices. International oil prices have been on the rise since April 2023 when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to cut back on oil production. More recently, the increase in oil prices escalated following recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Economic Activity
Overall, economic activity as well as prospects about business conditions continued to strengthen as shown by the high-frequency indicators of economic activity (CIEA, PMI and BTI).
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased marginally by 0.11% from 161.8 in August 2023 to 162.02 in September 2023. This increase signaled a sustained improvement in economic activity.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased slightly from 52.9 in September 2023 to 52.4 in October 2023 but remained above the 50 no change mark signaling a further improvement in the business environment. This was supported by the continued increase in customer demand which in turn fed through to increased output and new orders, employment and overall purchasing activity.
The decline in the PMI however was on account of two factors; higher costs for building materials and fuel which triggered an increase in selling prices, as well as the lengthened delivery times due to the difficult road conditions brought about by the recent heavy rains.
At sectoral level, the construction, industry and agriculture sectors posted increases in output, while decreases were realized in the services, wholesale & retail sectors.
Business Perceptions
Sentiments about doing business in Uganda were positive during the month as shown by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which increased from 58.6 in September 2023 to 60.5 in October 2023.
On a sectoral level, investors were more optimistic in the manufacturing and agricultural sectors. Additionally, key indicators measured by the index show that the business community was more optimistic about the present business situation and business conditions in the next three months, hence maintaining a positive outlook of the economy.
Financial Sector Developments
Exchange Rate Movements
During October 2023, there was a depreciation of the shilling against the US dollar of 0.5%. The monthly average rate was recorded at Shs 3,755.63/USD up from Shs 3,738.02/USD in September 2023. This was attributed to higher portfolio outflows due to better rates in advanced economies, increased debt service obligations, and global strengthening of the US Dollar.
However, when compared to the same month last year, the shilling appreciated by 1.7% from a monthly average rate of Shs 3,822.3/USD to Shs 3,755.6/USD. This appreciation was mainly due to increased coffee export receipts, higher foreign investments particularly in the oil sector and increased inflows of grants and personal transfers.
During October 2023, the Shilling gained value against the Euro and Pound Sterling, posting appreciation rates of 0.7% and 1.4%, respectively. See Figure 6.
Interest Rate Movements
Bank of Uganda maintained its policy rate at 9.5% in October 2023, for the third consecutive month. This was in response to a reduction in inflationary pressures as reflected by a decline in annual headline inflation from 2.7% in September 2023 to 2.4% in October 2023. Annual inflation has been declining since February 2023, thereby contributing to the low inflation outlook, which influences the decision of setting the monetary policy rate.
Lending Rates2
In September, 2023 the weighted average commercial bank lending rate increased to 18.95% compared to 18.40% recorded for the previous month. In addition, the lending rate for foreign currency denominated credit also increased to 9.00% in September 2023, compared to 8.57% the previous month. This was partly due to the rise in the risk averseness of commercial banks following the rise in the provisioning for bad debts during the period under review.
Government Securities
There were two treasury bill auctions, one treasury bond auction and one bond switch operation in the domestic primary market in October 2023, from which a total of Shs 1,137.67 billion was raised. Shs 788.72 billion was raised from treasury bills while Shs 348.95 billion was from the treasury bond issuance. Shs 686.14 billion of the total amount raised went towards refinancing maturing domestic debt in the month, while the remainder of Shs 451.53 billion was used for financing other items in the budget as shown in Table 1.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2022/23 | 11,334.2 | 3,928 | 7,406.2 |
| October 2023 | 1,137.7 | 451.5 | 686.1 |
| FY 2023/24 to date | 5,410.5 | 2,133.9 | 3,276.6 |
Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
In October 2023, yields (interest rates) edged downwards for the 91-day tenor, remained unchanged for the 182-day tenor, and slightly increased for the 364-day tenor. The annualized yields for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day tenors for October 2023 were 9.3%, 12.4% and 12.9%, compared to 10.0%, 12.4% and 12.8% in September 2023, respectively.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio being recorded at 2.84 in October 2023, albeit lower than 4.02 which was registered in September 2023.
Yields on Treasury Bonds
Under the treasury bond auction, two instruments (3-year and 20-year tenors) were issued in October 2023. In comparison to the previous issuance of similar securities, the yields for both the 3-year and 20-year tenors edged downwards from 13.65% and 17.00% to 13.50% and 15.51% in October 2023, respectively. The reduction in yield rates is majorly on account of the decline in inflation.
Outstanding Private Sector Credit3
The stock of total outstanding Private Sector Credit grew by 1.6% to Shs. 21,167.96 billion in September 2023 from Shs 20,841.38 billion in August 2023, with increases recorded for both shillings and foreign currency denominated credit (see Figure 11). Shillings and foreign currency denominated credit rose to Shs 14,871.8 billion and Shs 6,296.1 billion in September 2023 from Shs 14,771.8 billion and Shs 6,069.5 billion, respectively in August 2023. This was in part due to the continued improvement in economic activity and positive sentiments about business conditions as shown by the high frequency indicators (CIEA, BTI, PMI).
Credit Extensions4
The value of credit approved for disbursement in September 2023 amounted to Shs 1,090.3 billion, a Shs 3.1 billion increase from Shs 1,087.2 billion the previous month. This represents an approval rate of 53.4% in comparison to the rate of 64.7% in August 2023, partly due to higher risk averseness by commercial banks following the rise in provisioning for bad debts.
In September 2023, Personal and Household Loans accounted for the largest share of credit approved at 30.4% (Shs 331.3 billion). Other notable recipients of credit included Trade at Shs. 224.4 billion (20.6%), Building, Mortgage, Construction and Real Estate at Shs. 165.8 billion (15.2%), Business, Community, Social and other Services at Shs 147.6 billion (13.5%), and Agriculture at Shs. 115.8 billion (10.6%). These five sectors constituted 90.3% of all the credit extended to the private sector during the month.
External Sector Developments
Merchandise Trade Balance5
During September 2023, Uganda’s trade deficit with the Rest of the World narrowed both on a monthly and annual basis, owing to a decrease in the import bill that more than offset the reduction in export receipts. Between August and September 2023, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 15.3% from USD 349.72 million to USD 296.35 million.
Year-on-year comparison shows that the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 14.7% from USD 347.30 million in September 2022 to USD 296.35 million in September 2023.
Merchandise Exports6
Uganda exported merchandise worth USD 632.06 million in September, 2023. This represented a 5.6% decline in comparison to USD 669.88 million exported in August 2023. This decrease was majorly attributed to lower export earnings from beans, maize, tobacco, flowers and coffee registered during the month.
In comparison to the same month the previous year, merchandise exports grew by 93.1% from USD 327.28 million in September 2022 to USD 632.06 million in September 2023. This was attributed to increased export earnings from gold, coffee, maize among others.
Coffee exports during the month amounted to USD 94.39 million, a 22.4% decrease from USD 121.64 million registered in August 2023. This decline was partly attributed to the end of the coffee harvesting season in the Greater Masaka and South-Western regions (May to August), as well as the reduction in the international price of Robusta coffee during the month.
However, comparison with the same month last year shows that coffee exports grew by 32.5% from USD 71.22 million in September 2022, to USD 94.39 million in September 2023. This was largely attributed to the increase in Robusta coffee exports, partly driven by a good crop harvest in the South-Western region and prevailing good prices on the global scene which prompted exporters to off-load coffee from their warehouses for sale.
| Product | Sep-2022 | Aug-2023 | Sep-2023 |
Sep-2023 vs Sep-2022 % Change |
Sep-2023 vs Aug-2023 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 327.28 | 669.88 | 632.06 | 93.12 | -5.65 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 71.22 | 121.64 | 94.39 | 32.52 | -22.4 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.5 | 0.74 | 0.58 | 14.57 | -22.39 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 2.36 | 2.73 | 2.73 | 15.67 | -0.02 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 214.44 | 499.84 | 489.01 | 128.04 | -2.17 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 13.38 | 239.41 | 225.27 | 1,583.88 | -5.91 |
| Cotton | 0 | 2.06 | 1.76 | 294,368.13 | -14.81 |
| Tea | 5.69 | 6.27 | 5.62 | -1.13 | -10.4 |
| Tobacco | 4.28 | 4.63 | 3.48 | -18.78 | -24.87 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 10.37 | 11.75 | 12.59 | 21.42 | 7.17 |
| Simsim | 1.82 | 2.25 | 1.82 | 0.1 | -18.92 |
| Maize | 5.87 | 22.2 | 15.06 | 156.5 | -32.14 |
| Beans | 5.12 | 7.29 | 4.73 | -7.64 | -35.15 |
| Flowers | 4.02 | 5.57 | 4.27 | 6.24 | -23.3 |
| Oil Re-Exports | 8.84 | 12.77 | 10.31 | 16.64 | -19.27 |
| Base Metals & Products | 20.32 | 22.2 | 24.46 | 20.4 | 10.17 |
| ICBT Exports | 41.62 | 48.41 | 48.67 | 16.93 | 0.53 |
Destination of Exports7
In September 2023, the EAC remained the top destination of Uganda’s exports, accounting for 39.6% of the total market share. Within the EAC region, the top three destinations for Uganda’s exports were Kenya, Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan taking up 26.2%, 25.0%, and 22.4% of the total exports, respectively. The Middle East and Asia emerged as the second and third top destinations for Uganda’s exports, accounting for 21.5% and 19.6% respectively.
Merchandise Imports8
The value of merchandise imports decreased by 8.9% from USD 1,019.60 million in August 2023 to USD 928.41 million in September 2023. This decrease was largely attributed to lower private sector imports, particularly mineral products, petroleum products, chemical & related products and wood & wood products.
Conversely, comparison with the same month last year shows that merchandise imports grew by 37.6% from USD 674.59 million in September 2022, to USD 928.41 million in September 2023. This increase was mainly driven by higher import volumes for mineral products, petroleum products, machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories, and textiles & textile products, among others.
Origin of Imports
In September 2023, Asia remained Uganda’s largest source of imports, accounting for 35.2% of the total imports. Within Asia, China and India remained the major contributors, accounting for 72.6% of the imports from the region.
Other notable regions included the EAC, the Middle East, and the Rest of Africa, which accounted for 25.9%, 18.3%, and 11.6% of the total imports respectively. Within the EAC region, Tanzania and Kenya emerged as the lead sources of Uganda’s merchandise imports, accounting for 56.7% and 31.0%, respectively.
Trade Balance by Region
In June 2023, Uganda traded at deficits with Asia, Rest of Africa, the Middle East and Rest of Europe worth USD 202.81million, USD 79.42 million, USD 34.07 million and USD 8.92 million, respectively.
On the other hand, trade surpluses were registered with the European Union and EAC at USD 31.22 million and USD 9.45 million respectively.
| Region | Sep 2022 | Aug 2023 | Sep 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | 3.59 | 25.86 | 31.22 |
| Rest of Europe | -0.83 | -2.19 | -8.92 |
| Middle East | -107.65 | -45.82 | -34.07 |
| Asia | -291.87 | -203.5 | -202.81 |
| EAC | 85.66 | -49.9 | 9.45 |
| Rest of Africa | -12.54 | -59.3 | -79.42 |
| Other Countries | -23.67 | -14.87 | -11.81 |
Fiscal Developments9
Fiscal operations in October 2023 resulted in a deficit of Shs 2,269.87 billion. This was higher than what had been anticipated for the month due to a combination of lower than targeted domestic revenues and government expenditure being higher than the initial plan for the month. Table 4 gives a snapshot of fiscal operations in October 2023.
| Shs Billion | Program | Prel. Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues and grants | 2,291.54 | 2,071.67 | 90.4% | -219.88 |
| Revenues | 2,137.35 | 1,984.27 | 92.8% | -153.08 |
| Tax | 1,974.96 | 1,865.41 | 94.5% | -109.55 |
| Non-tax | 162.39 | 118.86 | 73.2% | -43.53 |
| Grants | 154.19 | 87.39 | 56.7% | -66.8 |
| o/w Project support | 154.07 | 87.39 | 56.7% | -66.68 |
| Expenditures and lending | 3,882.29 | 4,341.53 | 111.8% | 459.24 |
| Current expenditures | 2,466.97 | 2,487.55 | 100.8% | 20.57 |
| Wages and salaries | 659.72 | 607.08 | 92.0% | -52.64 |
| Interest payments | 309.14 | 308.44 | 99.8% | -0.7 |
| o/w domestic | 274.66 | 273.16 | 99.5% | -1.5 |
| o/w external | 34.48 | 35.28 | 102.3% | 0.8 |
| Other recurrent expenditure | 1,498.11 | 1,572.03 | 104.9% | 73.91 |
| Development expenditures | 1,280.28 | 1,811.54 | 141.5% | 531.25 |
| Domestic | 836.79 | 1,638.06 | 195.8% | 801.27 |
| External | 443.49 | 173.48 | 39.1% | -270.01 |
| Domestic arrears repayment | 41.55 | 42.45 | 102.2% | 0.9 |
| Domestic fiscal balance | -1,590.74 | -2,269.87 | __ | __ |
Domestic Revenues
Government projected to collect domestic revenue worth Shs 2,137.35 billion in October 2023 of which Shs 1,974.96 billion would be tax revenue while Shs 162.39 billion would be non-tax revenue. However, a total of Shs 1,984.27 billion was collected during the month, implying a shortfall of Shs 153.08 billion (7.2% below the target for the month).
Tax revenue collections amounted to Shs 1,865.41 billion translating into a shortfall of Shs 109.55 billion (5.5% below target) for the month. The shortfall was mainly due to underperformance of taxes on international trade transactions under which Shs 744.63 billion was collected against a target of Shs 878.16 billion implying a shortfall of Shs 133.54 billion. This followed lower than anticipated imports on which VAT on imports is levied, as well as less than anticipated petroleum imports during the month.
Similarly, indirect domestic taxes were lower than the target for the month by Shs 42.49 billion, having amounted to Shs 490.66 billion vis a vis a target of Shs 533.15 billion. Both Excise duty and VAT were short of their respective targets by Shs 20.08 billion and 22.41 billion respectively.
On the other hand, direct domestic taxes performed at 112.4%, amounting to Shs 631.03 billion against a target of Shs 561.31 billion for the month. This was majorly due to Pay as You Earn (PAYE), withholding tax and corporate tax all of which were above what had been targeted for October 2023.
Expenditure
Total government expenditure in October 2023 amounted to Shs 4,341.53 billion. This was against a programed expenditure of Shs 3,882.29 billion, implying that expenditure was 11.8% above target for the month. Both expenditure on recurrent items as well as on development projects were higher than the initial plan.
Recurrent spending was Shs 2,487.55 billion which is 0.8% higher than the program for the month mainly on account of non-wage non-interest recurrent expenditure. This followed a significant increase in the funds released for expenditure for quarter two.
For the same reason, domestically financed expenditure on development projects was Shs 1,638.06 billion. This is almost double the programmed amount for the month of Shs 836.79 billion as Government sought to increase execution of development projects.
East Africa Community Developments
EAC Inflation10
With the exception of Kenya, annual headline inflation among all EAC Partner States whose data was available, was on a declining trend. Uganda, Tanzania and Rwanda’s inflation reduced to 2.4%, 3.2% and 12.9% in October 2023, compared to 2.7%, 3.3% and 18.4%, respectively in September, 2023. The slowdown in price increases in Tanzania was due to lower prices for some food items such as wheat, soghurm flour, millet grains, maize grains, fresh fish, among others. In Rwanda, lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages explained the decline in inflation.
On the other hand, annual headline inflation in Kenya rose to 6.9% from 6.8% the previous month, largely due to higher fuel prices which fed into higher transport costs and also drove up the cost of some food items.
EAC Exchange Rates11
There was a general depreciation of all currencies within EAC Partner States, for which data was available, against the US dollar. The Rwandan Francs and Kenyan Shilling had the highest depreciation rates at 1.82% and 1.81%, respectively. The Tanzanian shilling, Ugandan shilling, and Burundian Francs also registered depreciation rates of 0.74%, 0.45%, and 0.16% respectively. The global strengthening of the dollar and higher portfolio outflows ensued by better rates in advanced economies have greatly contributed to the depreciation of EAC currencies.
Trade Balance with EAC12
In September 2023, Uganda traded at a surplus worth USD 9.45 million with EAC, a shift from a deficit of USD 49.9 million in the previous month. This surplus was on account of both a reduction in imports (by USD 41.94 million) and an increase in exports (by USD 17.41 million).
Imports from the region declined to USD 240.69 million in September from USD 282.63 million in August 2023. The reduction was majorly attributed to lower imports from Tanzania and Kenya which declined by USD 52.71 million and USD 7.76 million, respectively. Within EAC, Uganda sources most of her imports from Kenya and Tanzania with the 2 nations contributing 87.73% of total imports in September, unlike in August where the share stood at 96.37%.
In September, 2023 exports to EAC grew by 7.48% to USD 250.13 million from USD 232.72 million in August 2023. Exports to Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda increased by USD 9.37 million, USD 8.47 million and USD 2.29 million, respectively. Majority of the exports were destined to Kenya, D.R Congo, and S. Sudan, equivalent to USD 65.42 million, USD 62.61 million and USD 56.11 million, respectively. These 3 countries accounted for 73.62% of total exports to the region during the month under review.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on Private Sector Credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for Burundi, South Sudan and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Recent data for Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on trade with the EAC has a one-month lag.↩︎