September 2023
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2023-10-16
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| CBR | Central Bank Rate | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FX | Foreign Exchange | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| GBP | British Pound Sterling | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGOs | Non-Governmental Organisations | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers’ Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandan Franc | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs / Shs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax | |
| YTM | Yield to Maturity |
Summary1
Real Sector
There has been a general improvement in the level of economic activity as well as sentiments about economic and business conditions in the country over the last few months as shown by the high frequency indicators of economic activity.
The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA), which measures economic activity, rose by 0.81% to 162.63 in August 2023 from 161.33 in July 2023.
Similarly, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was recorded at 52.9 in September 2023, up from 51.6 in August 2023, signaling an improvement in business conditions compared to the previous month month. This was mainly driven by the growth of output and new orders supported by improved customer demand.
There were also positive sentiments about doing business in September 2023 in the Ugandan economy by business owners and investors as illustrated by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which was recorded at 59.31 (higher than the 50-mark threshold).
Inflation continued on a downward trajectory in September 2023 as a general price decline was recorded under the Energy Fuels and Utilities (EFU) category while the pace of price increases in the rest of the categories further slowed down. Annual headline inflation declined to 2.7% for the year ended September 2023 compared to the 3.5% recorded for the year ended August 2023. This was partly due to declining prices for fuels as well as disinflation for processed food items such as whole grain maize, sim sim, sorghum, packed milk, cassava flour, maize flour, etc.
Financial Sector
The Ugandan Shilling registered a depreciation of 1.2% in September 2023, having traded at an average midrate of Shs 3,738.02/US$ compared to an average midrate of Shs 3,689.12/US$ in August 2023. This followed a continued increase in corporate demand for the US Dollar and a general strengthening of the US Dollar globally.
Yields on shorter term treasury instruments continued on an up-ward trend for the 182 -day and 364-day tenors but declined for the 91-day tenor. The annualized yields for the 91-day,182-day and 364-day tenors for September were 10.0%, 12.4% and 12.8% compared to 10.3%, 11.4% and 12.5% in August, respectively.
There was an increase in the lending rates for the shilling denominated credit from 17.95% in July 2023 to 18.40% in August 2023. On the other hand, lending rates for foreign currency denominated credit declined from a weighted average of 9.18% in July 2023 to 8.57% in August 2023.
The stock of outstanding private sector credit registered an increase of 1.5% to Shs 20,841.36 billion in August 2023. Most of this growth was accounted for by the foreign currency denominated credit whose interest rates lowered during the month.
External Sector
Uganda traded at a deficit of US$ 402.05 million with the rest of the world in August 2023. This was 41.9% higher than the US$ 283.28 million trade deficit registered in July 2023 as the growth in the import bill more than offset the growth in export receipts registered over this period.
The value of merchandise exported in August amounted to US$ 669.88 million which was 17.6% higher than the US$ 569.78 million in July 2023. This was mainly on account of increased export earnings mainly from commodities such as gold and coffee exports during the month.
Uganda imported goods worth US$ 1,071.93 million representing a 25.7% increase from the US$ 853.06 million that was imported in July 2023. This increase was mainly in formal private sector imports during the month.
Fiscal Sector
Government operations in September 2023 resulted in a fiscal deficit of Shs 231.89 billion. This was against a programmed deficit of Shs 216.83 billion. The higher than programmed deficit was mainly due to shortfalls registered for both domestic revenues and grants during the month.
Government had projected to collect domestic revenue amounting to Shs 2,187.16 billion in September 2023. However, actual collections during the month were Shs 2,028.27 billion of which Shs 1,896.27 billion was tax revenue while the remainder was non-tax revenue. This implies a domestic revenue shortfall of Shs 158.89 billion as both tax and non-tax revenue were below their respective targets for the month.
Total government spending amounted to Shs 2,342.19 billion in September 2023, against a program of Shs 2,647.57 billion implying a performance of 88.5%. Most of the underperformance was due to lower than planned spending on externally financed development projects, which performed at 39.5% of the program for the month as disbursements from development partners were much less than had been anticipated.
East African Community
Annual headline inflation in Kenya and Rwanda increased while it decreased for Uganda and remained unchanged for Tanzania during September 2023. Headline inflation in Kenya slightly increased from 6.7% to 6.8% in August and September 2023 respectively while Rwanda’s headline inflation increased from 17.4% to 18.4% in during the same period.
All the EAC partner states’ currencies registered depreciation in September 2023 as the US Dollar continues to strengthen across the globe.
Uganda traded at a deficit of US$ 64.41 million with the rest of the EAC partner states compared to the US$ 23.98 million registered in July 2023. This was mainly on account of the deficits registered with Tanzania and Kenya which more than offset the surpluses registered with the DRC, South Sudan, Rwanda and Burundi.
Real Sector Developments
Inflation
Headline inflation continued on a downward trajectory, declining to 2.7% for the year ended September 2023 compared to the 3.5% recorded for the year ended August 2023. This makes it eight months of successive slowdown in headline inflation. The drop in headline inflation in September 2023 followed a reduction in some fuels and utilities’ prices, as well as a slowdown in the price increases for items in the core basket and those under the category of food crops and related items.
Annual core inflation registered a decline to 2.4% for the year ended September 2023 compared to the 3.3% recorded for the year ended August 2023. The disinflation in core inflation was mainly due to lower cost of production that led to slowdown in the rate of price increases for processed food items such as whole grain maize, sim sim, sorghum, rice, packed milk, millet flour, maize flour, etc. Other items that contributed to the decline include laundry bar soap, some beers, clothes, some building materials, and vehicles. The other driver for the slowdown in core inflation was transport costs which declined by 4.8%.
Annual inflation for food crops and related items was 7.9% for the year ended September 2023. This is lower than the 9.8% registered for the year ended August 2023. Inflation reduced mainly for fruits like mangoes, passion fruits, papaya and tomatoes, and other foods like yams, pumpkins, irish potatoes, sweet potatoes, cooking bananas (matooke), groundnuts and beans among others. The slowdown in price increases for these particular items is a result of favourable weather conditions since the start of 2023, resulting in improved harvests for fruits and vegetables.
Annual Energy, Fuel and Utilities’ inflation registered a deflation in September 2023 albeit smaller than what had been registered in the previous month. The annual energy, fuels and utilities inflation was recorded at negative 1.2% for the year ended September 2023 from a negative 2.7% in August 2023, implying that prices for commodities in this basket continued to decline though at a slower pace compared to the month before. This followed a decline in the price of fuels such as diesel (19.2%), petrol (17.6%) and kerosene (2.0%). Liquefied gas and electricity also registered lower prices during the month compared to the same month of the previous year, while the rate at which prices were increasing for charcoal significantly slowed down in September 2023 thus contributing to the general deflation observed for the EFU basket.
Economic Activity
There has been a general improvement in the level of economic activity as well as sentiments about economic and business conditions in the country over the last few months as shown by the high frequency indicators of economic activity.
The Composite Index of Economic activity (CIEA), which measures economic activity, rose by 0.81% to 162.63 in August 2023 from 161.33 in July 2023. The CIEA has been on an upward trend for the last twelve months, showing that the level of economic activity has been steadily improving.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also showed that the economy continued to improve in September 2023. The PMI was recorded at 52.9 in September 2023, up from 51.6 recorded in August 2023, which signals an improvement in business conditions compared to the previous month. June 2023 marked the eleventh consecutive month that this index scored above the 50-no change mark, reflecting a sustained improvement in the health of the private sector.
Particularly for September 2023, there was growth of output and new orders supported by improved customer demand. Consequently, firms expanded their purchasing activity as well as employment of staff. Improvement was most notable in the agriculture, construction, industry, services, and wholesale & retail categories. The index also shows that companies remain optimistic that output will continue to increase over the coming year.
Business Perceptions
Consistent with the high frequency indicators of economic activity, the Business Tendency Index (BTI) also shows that perceptions about doing business in Uganda were optimistic during September 2023, having been recorded at 59.31 which is significantly above the 50-mark threshold. Optimism was highest in the in the construction sector followed by agriculture, other services, manufacturing, and wholesale trade sectors.
Investors and the businessmen had positive sentiments about the current business situation and what it will be like in the next three months, order volumes and average selling prices among others. However, they still held negative sentiments regarding access to credit and the general financial situation.
Financial Sector Developments
Exchange Rate Movements
The Ugandan Shilling registered a depreciation of 1.2% in September 2023, having traded at an average midrate of Shs 3,738.02/US$ compared to an average midrate of Shs 3,689.12/US$ in August 2023. This followed a continued increase in corporate demand for the US Dollar and a general strengthening of the US Dollar globally.
The Shilling, however, strengthened against the Great Britain Pound and the Euro, recording an appreciation of 1.1% and 0.7% respectively in September 2023 compared to the month before.
Interest Rate Movements
In September 2023, the Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained 9.5% which was set by the Bank of Uganda in August 2023.
Lending Rates2
Lending rates for the Shilling denominated credit increased in August 2023 to 18.40% from 17.95% in July 2023. The major reason for the rise in lending rates remains the tight monetary policy stance of the Central Bank which includes among others a higher Cash Reserve Requirement (higher by 2% to 10% since June 2022), etc.
On the other hand, lending rates for foreign currency denominated credit declined from a weighted average of 9.18% in July 2023 to 8.57% in August 2023.
Government Securities
There were two treasury bill auctions and one treasury bond auction in the domestic primary market in September, from which a total of Shs 1,291.31 billion was raised. Shs 901.11 billion was raised from treasury bills while Shs 390.2 billion was from the treasury bond issuance. Shs 1,278.74 billion of the total amount went towards refinancing maturing domestic debt in the month, while the remainder of Shs 12.57 billion was used for financing other items in the budget as shown in table 1.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2022/23 | 11,334.2 | 3,928 | 7,406.2 |
| September 2023 | 1,291.3 | 12.6 | 1,278.7 |
| FY 2023/24 to date | 4,272.8 | 1,682.3 | 2,590.5 |
Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on shorter term treasury instruments continued on an up-ward trend for the 182 -days and 364-days tenors but declined for the 91-days tenor. The annualized yields for the 91-day,182-day and 364-day tenors for September were 10.0%, 12.4% and 12.8% compared to 10.3%, 11.4% and 12.5% in August, respectively.
All auctions for Treasury Bills were oversubscribed, with the average bid to cover ratio being recorded at 4.02 in September 2023.
Yields on Treasury Bonds
Under the Treasury bond auction, two instruments were issued of a 5-year tenor and a 15-year tenor. In comparison to the previous issuance of similar securities, the yields for both the 5-year and 15-year tenors edged upwards from 14.75% and 16.0% to 15.2% and 16.25% in September, respectively.
The general increase in treasury yields is due to market sentiments with expectations that Government will increase domestic borrowing beyond what is in the budget due to supplementary pressures.
Outstanding Private Sector Credit3
The stock of outstanding private sector credit amounted to Shs 20,841.36 billion in August 2023. This represents an increment of 1.5% from Shs 20,535.40 billion recorded for July 2023. Of the total stock as at end of August 2023, Shs 14,771.85 billion was denominated in the local currency while an equivalent of Shs 6,069.52 billion was denominated in foreign currency. The outstanding stock of both the Shilling denominated and foreign currency denominated credit to the private sector grew by 1.2% and 2.1% respectively.
The growth in the stock of private sector credit reflects the optimism of economic players in the resilience of the economy and the prospects of a continued pick up in the level of economic activity.
Credit Extensions4
In August 2023, the value of credit approved for extension to the private sector amounted to Shs 1,087.19 billion which is 2.7% less than the Shs 1,128.82 billion that was approved for disbursement in the previous month. The credit approved in August 2023 was against applications valued at Shs 1,655.31 billion, resulting in an approval rate of 65.7%. This approval rate in August is better than the 61.0% registered in July 2023 partly implying reduced risk aversion by lenders during the month.
There was a significant increase in the amount of loans approved for disbursement personal and household use from Shs 298.83 billion in July 2023 to Shs 345.86 billion in August 2023, and agriculture sector whose disbursement increased from Shs 133.94 billion to Shs 160.59 billion.
Of the total amount of loans extended to the private sector in August 2023, 2.9% (Shs 31.44 billion) was extended through electronic money credit (mobile money) where the approval rate was above 95%. This further reflects the benefits of digitizing the economy and underscores the potential for growth in this area.
External Sector Developments
Merchandise Trade Balance5
Uganda’s trade deficit with the rest of the world increased by 41.9% in August 2023 to US$ 402.05 million from the US$ 283.28 million registered in July 2023. This was on account of a higher increase in the import bill which more than offset the increase in export receipts registered over this period.
For the same reason, the trade deficit also widened by 27.6% in August 2023 Compared to August 2022. The deficit increased from US$ 315.02 million in August 2022 to US$ 402.05 million in August 2023.
Merchandise Exports6
Uganda exported merchandise worth US$ 669.88 million during August 2023. This represented a 17.6 % increase from US$ 569.78 million in July 2023. This was mainly on account of increased export earnings mainly from gold and coffee during the month.
Coffee export receipts during the month of August 2023 amounted to US$ 121.64 million.This is the highest ever amount received from coffee exports in a single month. This represents a 15.9 % increase compared to the US$ 104.99 million receipts the month before. This increase was partly on account of the good crop harvest in the South-Western region and good prices on the global market which prompted exporters to release their stock.
Compared to the same month last year, export receipts grew by 31.9 % from US$ 507.97 million in August 2022 to US$ 669.88 million in August 2023, mainly driven by increased earnings from gold, coffee, maize, oil re-exports among others in August 2023.
| Product | Aug-2022 | Jul-2023 | Aug-2023 |
Aug-2023 vs Aug-2022 % Change |
Aug-2023 vs Jul-2023 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 507.97 | 569.78 | 669.88 | 31.87 | 17.57 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 71.15 | 104.99 | 121.64 | 70.95 | 15.86 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.5 | 0.65 | 0.74 | 48.39 | 15.13 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 2.37 | 2.71 | 2.73 | 15.21 | 0.64 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 395.24 | 415.9 | 499.84 | 26.46 | 20.18 |
| of which: | |||||
| Mineral Products | 171.03 | 146.62 | 239.41 | 39.99 | 63.29 |
| Cotton | 0.03 | 0.84 | 2.06 | 6,505.74 | 146.09 |
| Tea | 5.14 | 7.42 | 6.27 | 22.16 | -15.44 |
| Tobacco | 2.8 | 4.92 | 4.63 | 65.31 | -5.79 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 10.9 | 10.28 | 11.75 | 7.81 | 14.26 |
| Simsim | 1.37 | 1.15 | 2.25 | 64.28 | 95.68 |
| Maize | 11.02 | 23.79 | 22.2 | 101.43 | -6.69 |
| Beans | 5.18 | 3.32 | 7.29 | 40.53 | 119.62 |
| Flowers | 4.97 | 6.25 | 5.57 | 12.03 | -10.92 |
| Oil Re-Exports | 10.77 | 16.91 | 12.77 | 18.6 | -24.46 |
| Base Metals & Products | 18.37 | 18.65 | 22.2 | 20.88 | 19.06 |
| ICBT Exports | 41.58 | 48.89 | 48.41 | 16.43 | -0.98 |
Destination of Exports7
The biggest share of Uganda’s exports during the month of August 2023 went to the EAC partner states. The EAC accounted for 34.7 % of the exports, followed by the Middle East with 22.6%, Asia with 20.3% and the European Union at 12.5% of the total exports.
On a country specific level, the United Arab Emirates remained Uganda’s largest destination of exports during the month accounting for 21.9% of the total value of merchandise exported. Other notable countries were India, South Sudan and Kenya with 14.9%, 7.7% and 6.7% respectively of the total value of goods exported during the month.
Merchandise Imports8
During August 2023, Uganda imported goods worth US$ 1,071.93 million representing a 25.7% increase from the US$ 853.06 million that was imported in July 2023. This increase was mainly in form of formal private sector imports during the month.
The major drivers for the increased import bill were mineral products (gold), wood & wood products, petroleum products and machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories which grew by 65.6%, 42.1%, 28.5% and 12.8% respectively during the month. Uganda has one of the best gold refineries in the region which attracts business people dealing in gold from the region to bring their gold for processing, thus explaining the increasing amount of gold imports.
Compared to August 2022, the import bill grew by 30.2% from US$ 822.99 million to US$ 1,071.93 million in August 2023 mainly on account of an increase in the importation of mineral products and machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories between the two months.
Origin of Imports
Asia remained Uganda’s biggest source of imports in August 2023, accounting for 33.3% of all imports for the month. This was followed by the EAC, Middle East and the Rest of Africa accounting for 27.7%, 19.4% and 10.8% respectively.
At a country specific level, Tanzania and China were Uganda’s largest source of imports, accounting for 18.6% and 17.0% of the total imports during the month. Other notable sources included the United Arab Emirates, Kenya and India accounting for 14.7%, 8.1% and 7.3% respectively.
Trade Balance by Region
For the second month in a row, Uganda traded at deficit with all regions except the European Union with which she had a trade surplus of US$ 22.9 million as the amount of coffee exported to the region increased in this period. The largest trade deficit was registered with Asia (US$ 220.93 million), followed by EAC (US$ 64.41 million), Rest of Africa (US$ 64.97 million) and the Middle East (US$ 55.94 million).
| Region | Aug 2022 | Jul 2023 | Aug 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| European Union | -0.42 | 34.27 | 22.9 |
| Rest of Europe | -1.74 | -4.28 | -2.63 |
| Middle East | 30.22 | -99.01 | -55.94 |
| Asia | -315.4 | -189.13 | -220.93 |
| EAC | 127.1 | 23.98 | -64.41 |
| Rest of Africa | -134.32 | -33.73 | -64.97 |
| Other Countries | -20.45 | -15.38 | -16.05 |
Fiscal Developments9
Government operations in September 2023 resulted in a fiscal deficit of Shs 231.89 billion. This was against a programmed deficit of Shs 216.83 billion. The higher than programmed deficit was mainly due to shortfalls registered for both domestic revenues and grants during the month. Domestic revenue and grants were short of their target for the month by Shs 320.44 billion, thereby more than offsetting the underperformance in total expenditure (lower than programmed by Shs 305.38 billion) to explain the higher fiscal deficit.
| Shs Billion | Program | Prel. Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues and grants | 2,430.74 | 2,110.3 | 86.8% | -320.44 |
| Revenues | 2,187.16 | 2,028.27 | 92.7% | -158.89 |
| Tax | 2,030.71 | 1,896.27 | 93.4% | -134.44 |
| Non-tax | 156.46 | 132.01 | 84.4% | -24.45 |
| Grants | 243.57 | 82.03 | 33.7% | -161.55 |
| o/w Project support | 243.45 | 82.03 | 33.7% | -161.43 |
| Expenditures and lending | 2,647.57 | 2,342.19 | 88.5% | -305.38 |
| Current expenditures | 1,932.16 | 1,849.54 | 95.7% | -82.62 |
| Wages and salaries | 585.11 | 565.97 | 96.7% | -19.14 |
| Interest payments | 725.97 | 725.12 | 99.9% | -0.85 |
| o/w domestic | 617.07 | 617.01 | 100.0% | -0.06 |
| o/w external | 108.9 | 108.11 | 99.3% | -0.79 |
| Other recurrent expenditure | 621.08 | 558.45 | 89.9% | -62.63 |
| Development expenditures | 698.97 | 444.12 | 63.5% | -254.84 |
| Domestic | 220.56 | 255.1 | 115.7% | 34.54 |
| External | 478.41 | 189.02 | 39.5% | -289.38 |
| Domestic arrears repayment | 16.04 | 48.52 | 302.6% | 32.49 |
| Domestic fiscal balance | -216.83 | -231.89 | __ | __ |
Domestic Revenues
Government had projected to collect domestic revenue amounting to Shs 2,187.16 billion in September 2023 of which Shs 2,030.71 billion was to be tax revenue while Shs 156.46 billion was to be non-tax revenue. However, actual collections during the month were Shs 2,028.27 billion of which Shs 1,896.27 billion was tax revenue while the remainder was non-tax revenue. This implies a domestic revenue shortfall of Shs 158.89 billion as both tax and non-tax revenue were below their respective targets for the month.
A shortfall of Shs 134.44 billion was registered for tax revenue as all the major tax categories (direct, indirect, and international trade taxes) were below target. The biggest shortfall was under the category of taxes on international trade which was below the Shs 856.75 billion target by Shs 90.36 billion as imports on which VAT, withholding tax and import duty are charged turned out lower than anticipated at the time of setting the target for the month.
Indirect domestic tax collections were Shs 549.23 billion in September 2023 which translates to a shortfall of Shs 26.83 billion against the target for the month of Shs 576.07 billion. Both excise duty and VAT were below target, with the former being affected by lower than anticipated sales of spirits while the latter was mainly affected by less than expected activity in the manufacturing sector.
Under direct domestic taxes category, Pay As You Earn (PAYE) continued to register surpluses. However, corporate tax, casino tax and taxes on treasury instruments were short of their respective targets. All these resulted in an overall shortfall of Shs 16.74 billion for direct domestic taxes.
Expenditure
Total government spending amounted to Shs 2,342.19 billion in September 2023. This was against a program of Shs 2,647.57 billion implying a performance of 88.5%. Most of the underperformance was registered in development projects which performed at 63.5% of the program for the month as disbursements from development partners were much less than had been anticipated for the month.
Expenditure on recurrent items was Shs 1,849.54 billion which is 4.3% below the program. This is partly due to Ministries, Departments and Agencies having frontloaded their expenditure to the first two months of quarter one especially for non-wage recurrent spending.
Government spent Shs 48.52 billion in September 2023 to settle outstanding arrears from its suppliers from the private sector. This is in line with the commitment to pay all outstanding arrears to the private sector as part of the strategy to support its continued recovery.
East Africa Community Developments
EAC Inflation10
Annual headline inflation in Kenya and Rwanda increased while it decreased for Uganda and remained unchanged for Tanzania during September 2023.
Headline inflation in Kenya increased from 6.7% to 6.8% in August and September 2023 respectively. This was on account of the general price increases for commodities such as food, transportation, fuel among others during the month.
Similarly, Rwanda’s headline inflation increased from 17.4% in August to 18.4% in September 2023 mainly driven by an increase in prices for food & non-alcoholic beverages, transport services and recreation & cultural services during the month.
EAC Exchange Rates11
All EAC currencies whose data was readily available registered depreciations against the US Dollar during the month of September 2023 mainly on account of global strengthening of the US Dollar during the month. The Ugandan, Kenyan and Tanzanian shillings registered depreciations of 1.4%, 2.0% and 1.5%. Similarly, the Rwandan and Burundi Francs registered depreciations of 1.4% and 0.5% respectively.
Trade Balance with EAC12
In August 2023, Uganda traded at a deficit of US$ 64.41 million with the rest of the EAC partner states compared to a surplus of US$ 23.98 million registered in July 2023. On a country specific level, Uganda traded at deficits of US$ 181.60 million and 29.75 million with Tanzania and Kenya respectively while trading at surpluses of US$ 56.19 million with the Democratic Republic of Congo, US$ 55.99 million with South Sudan, US$ 28.40 million with Rwanda and US$ 6.37 million with Burundi.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎
Data for Burundi, South Sudan and Democratic Republic of Congo not readily available.↩︎
Recent data for Democratic Republic of Congo and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎
Data on trade with the EAC has a one-month lag.↩︎