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List of Acronyms

Acronym Expansion
B.Franc Burundian Franc
BOU Bank of Uganda
BTI Business Tendency Index
CBR Central Bank Rate
CIEA Composite Index of Economic Activity
EAC East African Community
EFU Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FOB Free on Board
FX Foreign Currency
FY Financial Year
GBP British Pound Sterling
ICBT Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs Kenyan Shilling
MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED       Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGOs Non-Government Organisations
PAYE Pay as You Earn
PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index
PSC Private Sector Credit
R.Franc Rwandan Franc
T-Bills Treasury Bills
T-Bonds Treasury Bonds
TzShs Tanzanian Shilling
UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs / Shs Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD United States Dollar
VAT Value Added Tax
YTM Yield to Maturity

Summary1

Quarterly data released by UBOS in March 2022 shows that the economy grew by 5.2% in the second quarter of FY2021/22, compared to a decline of 0.4% in quarter 2 of the previous financial year. This was mainly driven by a pick-up in economic activity following the gradual easing of pandemic-related restrictions. Stronger performances were recorded in industry and services sectors particularly construction activities, mining and quarrying, hotel and accommodation services.

Real Sector

  • Sentiments about doing business in Uganda remained positive in March 2022 as indicated by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which was recorded at 57.5 for the month. Optimism was mainly expressed by investors in the manufacturing, construction and services sectors. However, there was a marginal decline in the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) from 147.24 in January to 147.16 in February 2022, which signals a slight slowdown in economic activity in some sectors of the economy.

  • Although the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined from 55.7 in February to 51.9 in March 2022, there was further improvement in business conditions during the month on account of increased consumer demand which helped firms secure bigger orders and expand business activity. However, many firms reported an increase in input costs which resulted in an increase in prices of their final products.

  • Consumer prices continued on an upward trend with annual headline inflation rising to 3.7% in March 2022, from 3.2% registered the month before. There was a significant increase in prices of cooking oil and laundry bar soap on account of a global shortage of inputs like vegetable oil. The price of liquid fuel also went up, consistent with the spike in international oil prices.

Financial Sector

  • The Ugandan shilling weakened against the US Dollar, depreciating by 2.1% from a period average of UShs 3,514.51/USD in February 2022 to UShs 3,589.84/USD in March 2022. This was on account of a combination of increased demand from the manufacturing and oil-related sectors and reduced inflows.

  • In the primary market for government securities, UShs 888.55 billion (at cost) was raised. UShs 506.61 billion was issued for refinancing maturing debt while UShs 381.94 billion went towards financing other activities in the budget.

  • Annualized yields (interest rates) decreased across all tenors save for the 91-day tenor which remained unchanged at 6.66%. Yields for the 182- and 364-day tenor decreased from 8.58% and 9.75% to 8.42% and 9.70% in February and March 2022, respectively.

  • Shilling denominated lending rates decreased to a weighted average of 18.84% in February 2022, down from a weighted average of 19.40% in January 2022. This was partly attributed to a reduction in credit risks associated lending to the private sector. However, foreign currency denominated lending rates increased over the same period.

  • The stock of private sector credit increased by 1.2% to UShs 19,162.82 billion between January and February 2022.

External Sector

  • Uganda’s trade deficit narrowed to USD 247.66 million in February 2022 compared to USD 274.28 million registered the month before. This was on account of higher exports receipts during the month.

  • Export receipts in February 2022 increased by 13.6% to USD 337.27 million from USD 296.82 million in January 2022, driven by coffee, sugar, cocoa beans and tea.

  • Uganda’s import bill increased by 3% to USD 584.94 million in February 2022 compared to the month before, following increased import volumes and higher prices for private sector imports such as chemical & related products, machinery, vehicles among others.

  • Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for the Rest of Africa and the EAC. The highest trade deficit was registered with Asia followed by the Middle East.

Fiscal Sector

  • Preliminary data shows that government operations in March 2022 resulted in an overall deficit of UShs 341.98 billion which was lower than the planned deficit of UShs 512.96 billion, mainly on account of lower than planned expenditure during the month.

  • Domestic revenue collections in March 2022 amounted to a surplus of UShs 12.43 billion or 0.7% against the target for the month. Tax and non-tax revenues amounted to UShs 1,681.89 billion and UShs 159.45 billion respectively.

  • Government spending in March 2022 amounted to UShs 2,298.76 billion, this reflects a 94.2% performance against the planned target of UShs 2,440.94 billion for the month. This performance was attributed under execution on externally financed development activities.

East African Community

  • On the 29th of March 2022, the Democratic Republic of Congo was admitted as the seventh member of the regional bloc, this presents massive trade potential to the people in the region and could also serve to revitalize and catalyze the EAC’s commitment to regional integration. However, this report will not report on the DRC as majority of the data was not available at the time of publishing.

  • Headline inflation in Kenya and Rwanda increased from 5.08% and 4.2% in February 2022 to 5.56% and 5.6% in March 2022 respectively. On the other hand, annual headline inflation for Tanzania in March 2022 slightly decreased to 3.6% from 3.7% registered in February 2022.

  • All selected currencies for which data was available weakened against the US Dollar. The Kenyan shilling, Rwandan and Burundi francs depreciated by 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. However, the value of the Tanzanian shilling remained relatively unchanged, only depreciating by 0.01%.

  • In February 2022, Uganda’s trade surplus with the EAC increased to USD 49.10 million from USD 26.8 million January 2022, largely on account of an increase in export receipts during the month.

Real Sector Developments

Inflation

Consumer prices continued on an upward trend in March 2022, with annual headline inflation recorded at 3.7% up from 3.2% the previous month. All three sub-components of headline i.e. Core inflation, Food crops inflation and Energy Fuel and Utilities (EFU) inflation increased during the month. These increments were majorly driven by significant rises in prices of key consumer commodities including laundry bar soap, cooking oil, cement, liquid fuels and food crops such as cooking bananas (matooke), sweet potatoes and onions among others.

Core inflation increased to 3.6% in March 2022 from 3.1% the previous month, majorly driven by continued increase in prices for laundry bar soap and cooking oil. Particularly, the average price for a 1kg bar of soap increased by 19.9% to UShs 6,988 in March 2022 from UShs 5,826 the previous month. The surge in the prices of both laundry soap and cooking oil emanates from a global shortage in the supply of crude vegetable oils which are a major input for the production of both products. In addition, higher prices were recorded for flour and its products, clothing, motor vehicle maintenance and repairs, educations services and international flight costs among others.

Annual food crop and related items inflation picked up to 1.9 % in March from 0.7% recorded the previous month mainly on account of a significant increase in prices for beans, round onions, fresh milk, cooking bananas (matooke), sweet potatoes, green leafy vegetables, green pepper, fruits and Irish potatoes among others, during the month.

Annual EFU inflation continued on an upward trend increasing to 8.5% in March 2022 from 7.0% the previous month mainly driven by an increase in prices for petrol and diesel. In particular, pump prices per litre of petrol increased by 1.9% from an average of Ush. 5,027 in February to UShs. 5,087 in March. The sustained increase in fuel prices was on account of the continued increase in international oil prices (brent crude oil price has remained above USD 100 per barrel) occasioned by supply & demand imbalances and exacerbated by the geo-political tensions in Europe. In addition, higher prices were recorded for firewood, propane gas and paraffin compared to the same month last year.

Economic Activity

The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) declined marginally by 0.05% from 147.24 in January 2022 to 147.16 in February 2022, which signaled a slowdown in economic activity in some sectors of the economy. This was the first time there has been a decline in the index since September 2021.

This slowdown is partly explained by supply shocks for raw materials such as sunflower seeds and palm oil as well as the impact of increased prices for fuel during the month. This has been exacerbated by the geo-political tensions in Europe that have distorted global trade patterns, increasing inflation levels in developed economies and increase of crude oil prices.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index in March 2022 was recorded at 51.9, down from 55.7 in February 2022 as Ugandan firms experienced a drop in new export orders and a reduction in new business from abroad during the month. Despite the decline, the index still remained above the threshold of 50, hence signalling improvements in business conditions following the full re-opening of the economy in January 2022. There was increased consumer demand which helped firms secure greater new domestic orders and expand their business activity during the month. Further increases in employment and purchasing activity were recorded in response to higher new orders while output increased across industry, services as well as wholesale & retail sectors. However, businesses reported higher prices for final products, which was attributed to an increase in input purchase costs particularly fuel, cement, transportation and utilities. In turn, companies raised their selling prices for the seventh month running.

Business Perceptions

Sentiments about doing business among investors remained positive as shown by the increase in the Business Tendency Index to 57.49 in March 2022 up from 54.06 registered in February 2022 (see Figure 5). This is the highest the index has been since March 2020. Optimism was mainly expressed under the manufacturing, construction and services sectors.

Financial Sector Developments

Exchange Rate Movements

In March 2022, the Ugandan Shilling weakened by 2.1% against the US Dollar to an average of UShs 3,589.84/USD from UShs 3,514.51/USD the previous month. This was partly on account of increased demand from the manufacturing and oil-related sectors, while inflows during the month remained subdued.

On the other hand, the shilling continued on an appreciation trend against the Euro and Pound Sterling by 0.7% and 0.6% in March 2022 respectively.

Interest Rate Movements

The Central bank rate remained unchanged at 6.5% in March 2022. The prevailing accomodative monetary policy stance is intended to support continued economic recovery.

Lending Rates2

Commercial banks’ shilling denominated lending rates decreased from a weighted average of 19.40% in January 2022 to 18.84% in February 2022. This decline was attributed to reduced credit risks associated with lending to the private sector, as reflected by the decline in the ratio of Non-Performing Loans to gross loans in December 2021. A fall in this ratio reflects a decrease in risk of default and subsequently a reduction in the risk premium charged.

On the other hand, foreign currency denominated lending rates increased to a weighted average of 6.25% in February 2022 up from a weighted average of 6.11% in January 2022.

Government Securities

During March 2022, Government held four auctions (3 T-Bill and 1 T-Bond) on the primary market, from which UShs 888.55 billion (at cost) was raised. Of this amount, UShs 554.08 billion or 62.3% was in Treasury Bills. During the month, securities worth UShs. 506.61 billion were issued for the refinancing of maturing debt whilst UShs. 381.94 billion went towards financing other activities in the Government budget, as indicated in the table 1.

Breakdown of Government Securities (UShs Billion) [Source: MOFPED]
Total Issuances Financing other items in the Government budget Refinancing
Q3 2021/22 3,114.2 1,182.8 1,931.4
March 2022 888.5 381.9 506.6
FY 2021/22 to date 9,213.6 3,522.6 5,691

Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

Treasury bill yields (interest rates) decreased for all tenors save for the 91-day tenor which remained unchanged at 6.66%. Yields for the 182- and 364-day tenors decreased to 8.42% and 9.70%, respectively, in March 2022 compared to 8.58% and 9.75%, recorded the previous month. The continued demand (as shown by the bid to cover ratio) for these tenors partly explains the yields. The average bid to cover ratio for the month was 1.76.

Yields on Treasury Bonds

During the month, Government issued two T-Bond instruments, i.e 5-year and 20-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on the 5-year tenor decreased to 14.00% in March as compared to 14.39% for a similar instrument in December 2021, which in part reflects an increase in demand for this security. However, the rate on the 20-year tenor increased to 15.95% in March from 15.90% in December 2021.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit3

The stock of outstanding private sector credit in February 2022 increased by 1.2% to UShs 19,162.82 billion from UShs 18,936.34 billion the previous month. This is higher than the 0.1% marginal growth recorded in January 2022. This was partly due to a reduction in the shilling denominated lending rates which encouraged borrowers to seek loans from credit institutions.

The stock of shilling denominated credit at the end of February 2022 was UShs 12,646.43 billion while that of foreign currency denominated credit was UShs 6,516.39 billion.

Credit Extensions4 5

The value of credit approved by lending institutions increased to UShs 875.3 billion in February 2022 compared to UShs 795.64 billion the month before. This is in part explained by a reduction in credit risk as reflected by a decline in the ratio of NPLs to gross loans in December 2021, which encouraged lending.

As was the case the previous month, personal and household loans continued to constitute the largest share of credit approved in February 2022 at 28.2%. This was followed by building, mortgage, construction and real estate (21.1%), trade at 18.9% and agriculture at 11.7%.

External Sector Developments

Merchandise Trade Balance6

Uganda`s merchandise trade with the Rest of the world resulted in a lower deficit of USD 247.66 million in February 2022 compared to USD 271.28 million recorded the earlier month. The decline in the trade deficit was on account of higher export receipts during the month.

Compared to the same period last year, the merchandise trade deficit increased from USD 152.92 million to USD 247.66 million, on account of a 24.6% decline in export receipts.

Merchandise Exports7

Export receipts increased by 13.6% to USD 337.27 million in February from USD 296.82 million in January 2022. This better performance was mainly on account of increased earnings for coffee as both export volumes and international prices increased during the month. International coffee prices, which have been on an upward trend since October 2021, were recorded at USD 2.68 per kilogram in February 2022. Export volumes of coffee increased from 402,212 (60 kg bags) in January 2022 to 448,957 (60 kg bags) in February. Other export items that recorded increased receipts include sugar, cocoa beans and tea.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) [Source: BOU and MOFPED Calc.]
Product Feb-2021 Jan-2022 Feb-2022 Feb-2022 vs
Feb-2021
% Change 		Feb-2022 vs
Jan-2022
% Change
Total Exports 447.05 296.82 337.27 -24.56 13.63
Coffee
Value Exported 50.55 61.98 72.17 42.78 16.43
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) 0.56 0.4 0.45 -20.22 11.62
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) 1.5 2.57 2.68 78.97 4.31
Non-Coffee Formal Exports 362.6 187.11 217.61 -39.99 16.3
of which:
Mineral Products 175.08 0 0 -100 NaN
Cotton 2.35 5.23 3.04 29 -42
Tea 7.23 5.54 8.68 20.17 56.78
Tobacco 7.14 2.37 2.67 -62.62 12.55
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) 8.46 10.69 13.28 56.94 24.24
Simsim 4.7 3.15 4.96 5.54 57.53
Maize 9.65 6.76 5.36 -44.47 -20.81
Beans 5.15 14.53 10.14 96.93 -30.18
Flowers 6.28 5.57 6.07 -3.3 8.97
ICBT Exports 33.9 47.73 47.5 40.09 -0.48

Compared to February 2021, export receipts dropped by 24.6% from USD 447.05 million to USD 337.27 million. This was mainly attributed to a drop in export receipts for gold, as there have been no reported gold exports pending the resolution of taxation issues between the Government and industry players. However, non mineral products exports grew by 24.0% from USD 271.97 million in February 2021 to USD 337.27 million in February 2022. This was on account of an increase in non-coffee export receipts, particularly cotton, tea, and fish.

Destination of Exports8

The East African Community (EAC) accounted for the largest share of Uganda’s exports (39.2%) during the month of February 2022. It was followed by the Rest of Africa and European Union at 25.4% and 20.0%, respectively.

Compared to the same period last year, there was a huge decline in the value of exports to the Middle East from USD 179.23 million to USD 8.97 million in February 2022. This development is attributed to the cessation in gold exports to the region, as government engages the private sector players on taxation issues.

Merchandise Imports9

Merchandise worth USD 584.94 million was imported during the month of February 2022, an increase of 3% from the previous month, following increased import volumes and higher prices for the non-oil private sector imports. In particular; categories of chemicals & related products, base metals & their products, machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories largely drove the increase in the import bill during the month.

Merchandise imports posted a decrease of 2.5% in February 2022 compared to the same month the previous year and was primarily driven by lower imports of mineral products. There has been no gold imports to Uganda pending the resolution of taxation issues between the Government and industry players.

Asia remained the largest source of Uganda’s imports, accounting for USD 253.30 million or 43.3% of Uganda’s total imports during the month. It was followed by the EAC, Middle East and European Union at 25.7%, 16.5% and 13.4% respectively. Imports from Asia mainly came from China (USD 127.60 million), India (USD 63.78 million) and Japan (USD 18.03 million). Some of the major goods from Asia during the month included pharmaceutical products, electronic equipment and motor vehicles.

Comparison between February 2021 and February 2022 shows that imports from the EAC and the Rest of Africa declined from 25.7% and 10.3% to 14.2% and 3.7% respectively. This is on account of a decline in imports of mineral products from those regions.

Trade Balance by Region

In the month of February 2022, Uganda traded with a deficit with all regions save for the Rest of Africa and the EAC. Uganda registered the highest trade deficit with Asia, which increased from USD 201.14 million in January 2022 to USD 223.33 million in February 2022. This was on account of an increase in the import bill from the region which more than offset the increase in export receipts during the month.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) [Source: BOU]
Region Feb 2021 Jan 2022 Feb 2022
European Union 2.3 -2.29 -11.3
Rest of Europe 0.33 -19.39 -3.42
Middle East 113.18 -81.44 -87.46
Asia -209.63 -201.14 -223.33
EAC -42.66 26.8 49.1
Rest of Africa -0.89 56.64 63.99
Other Countries -15.55 -50.45 -35.25

On the other hand, Uganda recorded trade surpluses worth USD 63.99 million and 49.10 million with the Rest of Africa and the EAC respectively. This performance was majorly due to increased export receipts and a reduction in the import bill from these regions.

Fiscal Developments10

Preliminary data shows that government operations in March 2022 resulted into an overall fiscal deficit of UShs 341.98 billion which was lower than the planned deficit of UShs 512.96 billion. This was majorly on account of lower than planned government expenditure during the month.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations March 2022 (UShs Billion) [Source: MOFPED]
Shs Billion Program Outturn Performance Deviation
Revenues and grants 1,927.98 1,956.78 101.5% 28.8
      Revenues 1,828.92 1,841.35 100.7% 12.43
            Tax 1,684.74 1,681.89 99.8% -2.84
            Non-tax 144.18 159.45 110.6% 15.27
      Grants 99.07 115.43 116.5% 16.37
                  o/w Project support 48.29 115.43 239.0% 67.14
Expenditures and lending 2,440.94 2,298.76 94.2% -142.18
      Current expenditures 1,618.49 1,498.46 92.6% -120.03
            Wages and salaries 459.51 472.92 102.9% 13.41
            Interest payments 405.27 405.27 100.0% 0
                  o/w domestic 326.09 326.09 100.0% 0
                  o/w external 79.18 79.18 100.0% 0
            Other recurrent expenditure 753.71 620.27 82.3% -133.44
      Development expenditures 788.63 760.41 96.4% -28.23
            Domestic 266.82 409.57 153.5% 142.75
            External 521.81 350.84 67.2% -170.98
      Net lending/repayments 20.5 5.67 27.6% -14.83
                  o/w HPP GoU 0 5.67 __ 5.67
      HPP Exim 20.5 0 0.0% -20.5
      Domestic arrears repayment 13.31 34.22 257.1% 20.91
Domestic fiscal balance -512.96 -341.98 __ __

Revenues

Revenues and grants during the month amounted UShs 1,956.78 billion, representing a 101.5% performance against a target for the month, as both domestic revenue collections and grants received exceeded their respective targets.

Domestic revenue collections in March 2022 amounted to a surplus of UShs 12.43 billion or 0.7% against the target. Of the total collections, UShs 1,681.89 billion or 92% was tax revenues, while UShs 159.45 billion was non-tax revenues. Tax collections during the month were largely on target amounting to UShs 1,681.89 billion, a 99.8% performance rate.

At the same time, non-tax revenue collections during the month amounted to a surplus of UShs 15.3 billion or 10.6% against the target for the month. This performance is attributed to increased NTR collections from education institutions (universities) as they are now operating at full capacity since re-opening of the economy and collections under the Directorate of Citizen Control and Immigration following increased demand for the new machine readable passports ahead of the deadline in April 2022. Surpluses were also registered from the transport and works sector, particularly the Uganda Drivers Licensing System during the month.

Expenditure

Preliminary data shows that government spending in March 2022 amounted to UShs 2,298.76 billion, reflecting a 94.2% performance rate for the month. This performance was attributed to the under-execution on externally financed development activities during the month. At the same time, recurrent expenditure performed at 92.6% of the planned spending levels, on account of non-wage expenditure front-loading by several MDAs in the first two months of the quarter (Q3).

Total wages and salaries for the month amounted to UShs 472.92 billion, reflecting a 102.9% performance against the planned UShs 459.51 billion for the month. The health and education sectors were allowed additional resources for new recruitment during the month. In addition, government cleared more domestic arrears in line with the government interventions to support the private sector (local suppliers) and economy towards recovery.

Government spending towards domestically financed development projects amounted to UShs 409.57 billion, translating into a 153.5% performance against the planned target of UShs 266.82 billion for the month. This was attributed to supplementary payments made towards the energy, health, local government as well as the transport and works sector.

East Africa Community Developments

During the 19th extraordinary summit of EAC heads of state held on 29th March, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was admitted as the seventh member of the regional bloc. The enthusiasm of the EAC to facilitate trade among its members is enshrined in Article 5(2) of the treaty establishing the East African Community and presents significant market potential for the rest of the region. This development could also serve to revitalize and catalyze the EAC’s commitment to regional integration beyond just a common market.

EAC Inflation11

Kenya’s annual headline inflation increased to 5.56% in March 2022 from 5.08% the previous month, mainly driven by a significant rise in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, particularly cooking oil and wheat flour amid the effects of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, Rwanda’s headline inflation increased to 5.6% for the year ending March 2022 from 4.2% for the year ended February 2022, as prices rose much faster for bread and cereal, housing, water & electricity, gas and other fuels, restaurant and hotels among others.

On the other hand, annual headline inflation for Tanzania in March 2022 slightly decreased to 3.6%, down from 3.7% registered in February 2022. This reduction was mainly driven by a slowdown of increase in prices for food, non-alcoholic beverages and education services during the month.

EAC Exchange Rates

In March 2022, all currencies of the EAC partner states registered depreciations against the US dollar. The Kenyan shilling, Rwandan and Burundi Francs all depreciated by 0.6%, 0.3% and 0.2% respectively. This movement was mainly driven by the global strengthening of the US dollar during the month.

On the other hand, the Tanzanian Shilling remained largely unchanged, only depreciating by 0.01% against the USD from a period average of Shs 2,298.16/USD in February 2022 to Shs 2,298.44/USD in March 2022.

Trade Balance with EAC

In February 2022, Uganda continued to trade at a surplus with the EAC as has been the case since the start of this financial year. The trade surplus amounted to USD 49.10 million compared to the USD 26.80 million in January 2022. This was largely on account of increase in export receipts during the month.

Total exports receipts to the region amounted to USD 132.28 million, compared to an import bill worth USD 83.18 million. South Sudan was the largest destination of Uganda’s exports (USD 56.46 million) during the month, followed by Kenya (USD 55.86 million) and Tanzania (USD 12.66 million).

On the other hand, Kenya remained the main source of Uganda’s imports (USD 59.01 million), followed by Tanzania (USD 22.32 million) and South Sudan (USD 1.13 million).

Glossary

Term Description
Bid to cover ratio This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM) Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

  1. Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎

  2. Data comes with a month lag.↩︎

  3. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  4. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  5. Value of credit approved is the actual amount of credit released by lending institutions↩︎

  6. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  7. Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎

  8. Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎

  9. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  10. Fiscal data is preliminary.↩︎

  11. Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎