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List of Acronyms

Acronym Expansion
BTI Business Tendency Index
BOU Bank of Uganda
B.Franc Burundian Franc
CBR Central Bank Rate
CIEA Composite Index of Economic Activity
COVID-19 Corona Virus Disease 2019
EAC East African Community
EFRIS Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing System
EFU Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FX Foreign currency
FY Financial Year
HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HPP Hydro Power Plant
ICBT Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs Kenyan Shilling
MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED       Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGO Non-Government Organisation
PAYE Pay as You Earn
PMI Purchasing Managers Index
PSC Private Sector Credit
R.Franc Rwandan Franc
T-Bills Treasury Bills
T-Bonds Treasury Bonds
TShs Tanzanian Shilling
UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD United States Dollar
VAT Value Added Tax
YTM Yield to Maturity

Summary1

Real Sector

  • Following the full reopening of the economy in January, there was an improvement in economic activity as reflected by the Composite Index of Economic Activity(CIEA) and the Purchasing Managers’ Index(PMI). Sentiments about doing business were also positive as shown by the Business Tendency Index(BTI). Particularly, the CIEA improved by 0.58% in January 2022 rising at 147.33, from 146.47 registered in December 2021.

  • The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) signaled an improvement in business conditions during the month on account of an increase in new orders, output,employment and purchasing activity. The PMI rose to 55.7 in February 2022 from 54.9 in January.

  • Sentiments about doing business in Uganda remained positive during the month as reflected by the BTI. The BTI recorded a value of 53.80 in February compared to 52.94 in January, driven by optimism in sectors of agriculture, construction and services.

  • Annual Headline inflation rose to 3.2% during the month, from 2.7% recorded in January 2022, mainly driven by higher prices for soap, sugar, rice, cooking oil, education services, petrol and diesel. In particular, prices of soap and cooking oil increased significantly during the month as a result of limited supply of inputs used in the making of both products. Similarly, Annual EFU inflation increased from 6.5% in January to 7.0% in February, on account of higher prices for liquid fuels resulting from the escalating international oil prices.

Financial Sector

  • During the month, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated against the US Dollar by 0.4%, from a period average of Shs 3,528.8/USD in January to a period average of Shs 3,514.5/USD in February 2022. This was mainly attributed to strong dollar inflows mainly from the offshore investors in government securities and Non Government Organizations (NGOs) amidst subdued demand.

  • Government raised Shs.1259.44 billion (at cost), with Shs 904.99 billion issued for the refinancing of maturing domestic debt whereas Shs 354.46 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget.

  • The annualized yields (interest rates) on the 91-day and 182-day tenors remained unchanged, while the yield for the 364 -day tenor declined in the face of high demand for Government securities.The annualized yields for February were 6.66%, 8.58% and 9.75% for the 91,182 and 364-day tenors respectively.This compares with 6.66%,8.58%,and 10.20% in January 2022.

  • Average lending rates for Shilling denominated credit increased to 19.40% in January 2022, from 18.60% in December 2021. This was partly explained by risk aversion among commercial banks. On the other hand, foreign currency denominated lending rates reduced during the same period.

  • By end of January 2022, the total outstanding stock of private sector credit stood at Shs. 18,936.3 billion. This was a 0.1% increase, much smaller than a 1.0% increase recorded the previous month.

External Sector2

  • Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit reduced to USD 228.88 million in January 2022 from USD 271.46 million in December 2021, majorly on account of increased export receipts together with a decrease in the import bill.

  • Export receipts increased by 4.1% from USD 325.77 million in December 2021, to USD 339.22 million in January 2022, mainly due to higher export earnings from maize, sugar, cotton and beans. On an annual basis, export receipts declined by 17.3%, from USD 410.40 million in January 2021 to USD 339.22 million in January 2022.

  • The value of merchandise imports declined by 4.9% in January 2022 from USD 597.22 million recorded in December 2021 to USD 568.10 million. This was due to a decline in import volumes of both Government imports and private sector imports partly on account of a protest by truck drivers against Covid-19 testing fees at Malaba border post. On an annual basis, the import bill was higher by 1%, from USD 562.21 million in January 2021 to USD 568.10 million in January 2022.

  • During the month, Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for the Rest of Africa and the EAC. Uganda recorded the biggest surplus with the Rest of Africa from USD 4.26 million in January 2021 to USD 99.04 million in January 2022, largely due to increased export earnings from the Democratic Republic of Congo(DRC).

Fiscal Sector

  • Preliminary data shows that government operations in February 2022 resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of Shs.634.37 billion, which was lower than the planned deficit of Shs.1,495.10 billion mainly due to low external disbursements which affected spending.

  • Government expenditure amounted to Shs.2,306.70 billion representing a 69.2% performance against the planned target of Shs.3,332.03 billion for the month. This was largely on account of the underperformance of externally financed development expenditures which amounted to Shs.516.01 billion against the planned monthly target of Shs.1,484.91 billion.

  • Domestic revenue collections for February 2022 amounted to Shs.1,662.20 billion, registering a shortfall of Shs 68.31 billion against the target of Shs.1,730.50 billion for the month. Domestic revenue collections were below target on account of short falls recorded for direct tax (withholding tax) and indirect taxes (VAT and excise duty).

East African Community3

  • Except for Rwanda, inflation within EAC Partner States was on a downward trend. Kenya and Tanzania’s annual headline inflation reduced to 5.08% and 3.7% respectively, in February from 5.39% and 4.0% respectively, in January 2022. On the other hand, Rwanda’s inflation increased to 4.2% in February 2022 from to 1.3% the previous month, largely due to an increase in prices for education, furnishings, housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages.

  • In February 2022, national currencies for Kenya, Burundi, and Rwanda weakened against the US Dollar by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.3% respectively compared to the previous month. However, the Tanzanian Shilling remained relatively unchanged.

  • Uganda exported merchandise worth USD 119.52 million, whereas the import bill was recorded at USD 92.73 million with the EAC region. Kenya and South Sudan absorbed 81.4% of Uganda`s exports to the EAC, whereas, Kenya and Tanzania contributed 98.0% of Uganda’s imports from the EAC.

Real Sector Developments

Inflation

Annual headline inflation increased to 3.2% in February from 2.7% the previous month majorly driven by a surge in the components of core and energy, fuel & utilities (EFU) inflation. Particularly prices significantly went up for soap, sugar, rice, cooking oil, education services, petrol and diesel in February 2022.

Annual core inflation increased to 3.1% in February from 2.3% recorded the previous month majorly driven by an increase in the price of soap which went up by 18.4% compared to the previous month, and 56.5% compared to February 2021. The prices of soap and cooking oil have recently been faced with cost push inflationary pressure emanating from limited supply of inputs used in the making of both products. This is attributed to supply-chain disruptions worsened by geopolitical tensions in Europe. Prices also went up for education services, sugar, rice and refined oil among others.

Annual EFU inflation continued on an upward trend increasing to 7.0% in February from 6.5% the previous month mainly driven by the increase in liquid fuel prices. Particularly, pump prices per litre of petrol increased by 2.9% from an average of Shs 4,886 in January to Shs 5,028 in February and by 32.1% from Shs 3,806 in February 2021. The sustained increase in fuel prices is majorly attributed to the increase in international oil prices with the cost of Brent crude oil soaring to as high as USD130 per barrel in February on account of geopolitical tensions. Prices also went up for diesel, firewood, propane gas and paraffin compared to the same month last year.

On the other hand, annual inflation for food crops and related items slowed to 0.7% in February from 3.7% the previous month mainly resulting from a reduction in prices for cooking bananas (matooke), sweet potatoes, groundnuts, fresh beans, cowpeas and fruits (pawpaws, passsion fruits, Bananas and oranges) during the month.

Economic Activity

Overall,the high frequency indicators showed a pickup in economic activity and optimism about doing business. The CIEA improved by 0.58% from 146.47 in December 2021 to 147.33 in January 2022 signalling an improvement in economic activity following the full reopening of the economy.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index improved from 54.9 in January to 55.7 in February 2022 signalling an improvement in business conditions within the economy. This was the highest value recorded for the PMI since the start of FY2021/22 as firms were able to secure greater volumes of new orders and expand their business activity, following the full reopening of the economy in January. Employment also increased in four of the five monitored sectors of the index; agriculture, industry, wholesale and service sectors. Nonetheless, input costs continued to rise during the month, in line with the economy wide inflationary trend.

Business Perceptions

Perceptions about doing business in Uganda were more optimistic during the month as reflected by the BTI. The Business Tendency Index recorded a value of 53.80 in February from 52.94 in the month of January as shown in Figure 5. Assessment of key indicators by sector showed that optimism was mostly reflected in agriculture, construction and services sectors

Financial Sector Developments

Exchange Rate Movements

The Ugandan Shilling appreciated against the US Dollar by 0.4%, to a period average of Shs.3,514.5/USD in February 2022 compared to Shs.3,528.8/USD the previous month.This was attributed to strong dollar inflows mainly from the offshore investors in government securities and NGOs, which outstripped dollar demand mainly from the manufacturing, telecom, and energy sectors .

Similarly, the Uganda Shilling appreciated against the Euro and the Pound Sterling in February 2022 , by 0.2% and 0.6% respectively compared to the previous month.

Interest Rate Movements

The Bank of Uganda maintained its monetary policy rate (CBR) at 6.5% in February. This rate is consistent with meeting the inflation objective while supporting economic growth recovery.

Lending Rates4

Commercial banks’ shilling denominated lending rates increased from a weighted average of 18.60% in December 2021 to 19.40% in January 2022. This development was mainly explained by the increased risk aversion among lenders.

On the other hand, foreign currency denominated lending rates slightly reduced from a weighted average of 6.26% in December 2021, to 6.11% in January 2022.

Government Securities

Government raised Shs.1,259.44 billion (at cost) in the domestic securities market during the month.Securities worth Shs.904.99 billion was used for the refinancing of maturing domestic debt while Shs.354.46 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget as shown in Table 2.

Trends in issuances of Government Securities (UShs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Total Issuances Financing other items in the Government budget Refinancing
Q1 2021/22 3,318.19 1,593.95 1,724.24
Q2 2021/22 2,781.26 745.91 2,035.35
January 2022 966.17 446.37 519.8
February 2022 1,259.44 354.46 904.99
FY 2021/22 to date 8,325.07 3,140.69 5,184.38

Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

Only the yield on the 364-day tenor decreased from 10.2% in January to 9.75% in February 2022. Yields for the the 91 and 182 day tenors remained unchanged at 6.66% and 8.58%, respectively for both January and February.The continued high demand (as shown by the bid to cover ratio) for these tenors largely explained the behavior of the yields. The average bid to cover ratio (see Figure 10) was 2.12 in February compared to 2.02 recorded the previous month.

Yields on Treasury Bonds

During the month, Government issued two T-Bond instruments on the primary market, i.e 2-year and 10-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on the 2-year tenor reduced to 10.49% in February as compared to 11.00% for a similar instrument in December 2021. Similarly, the rate on the 10-year tenor decreased to 13.50% in February 2022 from 14.00% in December 2021.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit5

The stock of outstanding private sector credit increased marginally by 0.1% from Shs.18,924.09 billion in December 2021 to Shs.18,936.34 billion in January 2022. This compares with a growth of 1% recorded the previous month, partly explained by an increase in lending rates.

Credit Extensions6

The value of credit approved in January declined to Shs.795.7 billion compared to Shs.915.2 billion in December 2021 partly reflecting the increased risk aversion of the lenders. This performance represented an approval rate of 51.8% of the total amount of loan requests received in January 2022 compared to 55.5% the previous month.

As was the case in December 2021, personal loans and household loans continued to constitute the largest share of credit approved in January 2022 at 32.7%. Other notable recipients of credit were trade (17.8%) building, construction and real estate (13.9%), manufacturing (13.0%) and agriculture (12.5%). These five sectors alone accounted for 89.9% of all credit approved in the month of January.

External Sector Developments

Merchandise Trade Balance7

The merchandise trade deficit narrowed by 15.68% from USD 271.46 million in December 2021 to USD 228.88 million in January 2022. This was due to both a decrease in imports (by 4.9%) and an increase in exports (by 4.1%).

However, compared to January 2021, the merchandise trade deficit expanded from USD 151.80 million to USD 228.88 million, on account of a 17.3% decline in export receipts.

Merchandise Exports

Export receipts increased for the fourth consecutive month amounting to USD 339.22 million in January 2022, an increase of 4.1% from USD 325.77 million registered in December 2021. This development followed an increase in the export receipts of maize, sugar, cotton and beans following higher export volumes. Export volumes of maize increased from 8,077 tonnes in December to 20,016 tonnes in January 2022.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) (Source: BoU and MoFPED Calc.)
Product Jan-2021 Dec-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2022 vs
Jan-2021
% Change 		Jan-2022 vs
Dec-2021
% Change
Total Exports 410.4 325.77 339.22 -17.34 4.13
Coffee
Value Exported 39.73 75.25 61.98 56.01 -17.63
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) 0.45 0.54 0.4 -9.93 -25.08
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) 1.48 2.34 2.57 73.22 9.94
Non-Coffee Formal Exports 327.83 202.77 229.52 -29.99 13.19
of which:-
Cotton 1.34 3.05 5.23 290.16 71.76
Tea 6.56 8.04 5.54 -15.61 -31.16
Tobacco 6.34 4.02 2.37 -62.62 -41.04
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) 10.6 12.21 10.69 0.91 -12.46
Oil Re-Exports 7.37 9.19 8.93 21.13 -2.83
Base Metals & Products 8 17.86 14.92 86.49 -16.45
Maize 7.09 2.7 6.76 -4.66 150.26
Beans 5.17 12.47 14.53 180.76 16.47
Flowers 4.48 4.72 5.57 24.36 18.1
ICBT Exports 42.84 47.75 47.73 11.39 -0.05

Comparison between January 2021 and January 2022 shows a 17.3% decline in export receipts from USD 410.40 million to USD 339.22 million.8

Destination of Exports9

In January 2022, Rest of Africa took the largest share of Uganda`s exports (36.2%). In particular, export receipts to DRC more than doubled increasing from USD 44.27 million in January 2021 to USD 102.52 million in January 2022.

The East African Community and the European Union accounted for second and third shares of trade by value terms taking up 35.2% and 16.7% respectively.

Merchandise Imports10

The value of merchandise imports registered a decline of 4.9% to USD 568.10 million in January 2022, from USD 597.22 million recorded in December 2021. This development was on account of a 9.7% decline in import volumes11 . Both government and private sector imports registered lower volumes in January, partly on account of a protest by truck drivers against Covid-19 testing fees at Malaba border post. Uganda had introduced mandatory Covid-19 testing for truckers, whether or not they possess a valid Covid-19 certificate issued by the Kenyan Government. The decline in import volumes more than offset the price increases recorded for some import categories, leading to a decline in the value of merchandise imported.

On an annual basis, the import bill was higher by 1% compared to January 2021, following higher imports of oil.

During the month of January 2022, 39.5% of Uganda`s imports originated from Asia, 16.3% from the East African Community, and 15.4% from the Middle East. Total imports from Asia amounted to USD 224.42 million in January 2022, of which China contributed 39.4% whereas India and Japan contributed 28.4% and 9.0%, respectively. Some of the goods imported from Asia include pharmaceutical products (mainly from India), electronic equipment, iron and steel, motor vehicles and accessories.

Trade Balance by Region

Uganda posted a merchandise trade surplus with Rest of Africa and the EAC and deficits with the other regions. The country recorded the largest merchandise trade deficit with Asia while the biggest trade surplus was with the Rest of Africa. The merchandise trade surplus with the Rest of Africa increased from USD 4.26 million in January 2021 to USD 99.04 million in January 2022 following higher exports to DRC.

In January 2022, Uganda’s trade deficit with Asia widened to USD 201.14 million, from USD 179.98 million last year.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) (Source: BoU)
Region Jan 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022
European Union -14.5 -11.93 -2.29
Rest of Europe -2.35 -11.38 -19.39
Middle East 92.66 -74.22 -81.44
Asia -179.98 -255.54 -201.14
EAC -43.84 47.56 26.8
Rest of Africa 4.26 53.54 99.04
Other Countries -8.05 -19.48 -50.45

Fiscal Developments 12

Preliminary data shows that government operations in February 2022 resulted in an overall deficit of UShs 634.37 billion which was lower than the planned deficit of UShs 1,495.10 billion for the month. This was on account of lower than planned development spending during the month.

Revenue and Grants

Revenue and grants during the month amounted to UShs 1,672.33 billion against the planned UShs 1,836.93 billion. Short falls were recorded for both revenues and grants amounting to UShs 68.31 billion and UShs 96.29 billion, respectively.

Domestic Revenues

Domestic revenue collections in February 2022 amounted to UShs 1,662.20 billion against the planned target of UShs 1,730.50, as both tax and non-tax collections fell short of their respective targets for the month. Of the total collections for the month, UShs 1,548.52 billion was tax while UShs 113.68 billion was realised from non-tax revenue sources. Despite the pick-up in economic activity, tax collections continue to perform below the target as many sectors haven’t fully recovered from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, some of the administrative tax measures proposed in the budget for this financial year have not been effectively implemented as earlier anticipated.

Tax revenue collections for February 2022 amounted to a shortfall of UShs 86.06 billion, mainly on account of short falls recorded for direct and indirect taxes that more than offset the surplus recorded for taxes on international trade and transactions. Tax revenue collections amounted to UShs 1,548.52 billion against the planned target of UShs 1,634.58 billion.

Direct domestic tax collections for the month amounted to UShs 426.47 billion against the planned target of UShs 458.08 billion. This performance was mainly on account of shortfalls registered in collections for withholding tax, tax on treasury bills and bonds, presumptive tax and rental income tax which more than offset the surplus collected for PAYE during the month. The surplus registered under PAYE collections was as a result of a pickup of employment in the private sector following the full re-opening of the economy in January 2022.

Indirect domestic tax collections were affected by underperformance by excise duty and VAT. Excise duty collections were affected by administrative challenges in effective implementation of the digital tracking system coupled with lower than anticipated consumption of items such as beer, spirits, wines and near beer beverages. Similarly, collections for VAT were affected by roll out difficulties of the Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing System (EFRIS).

On the other hand, taxes on international trade amounted UShs 711.02 billion against the planned target of UShs 684.79 billion which translated into a UShs 26.24 billion surplus for the month. This performance was mainly on account of surpluses collected for petroleum duty especially petrol, import duty on textile products and VAT on iron and steel imports during the month.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations February 2022 (UShs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Shs Billion Program Outturn Performance Deviation
Revenues and grants 1,836.93 1,672.33 91.0% -164.59
      Revenues 1,730.5 1,662.2 96.1% -68.31
            Tax 1,634.58 1,548.52 94.7% -86.06
            Non-tax 95.92 113.68 118.5% 17.75
      Grants 106.42 10.13 9.5% -96.29
                  o/w Project support 106.42 10.13 9.5% -96.29
Expenditures and lending 3,332.03 2,306.7 69.2% -1,025.32
      Current expenditures 1,833.01 1,717.98 93.7% -115.03
            Wages and salaries 467.83 479.23 102.4% 11.4
            Interest payments 540.47 540.47 100.0% 0
                  o/w domestic 371.83 371.83 100.0% 0
                  o/w external 168.64 168.64 100.0% 0
            Other recurrent expenditure 824.7 698.28 84.7% -126.42
      Development expenditures 1,484.91 516.01 34.7% -968.91
            Domestic 1,112.87 416.7 37.4% -696.17
            External 372.04 99.3 26.7% -272.74
      Net lending/repayments 0 5.71 __ 5.71
                  o/w HPP GoU 0 5.71 __ 5.71
      HPP Exim 0 0 __ 0
      Domestic arrears repayment 14.1 67.01 475.1% 52.91
Domestic fiscal balance -1,495.1 -634.37 __ __

Expenditure

Government expenditure in February 2022 amounted to UShs 2,306.70 billion, representing a 69.2% performance against the planned UShs 3,332.03 billion target for the month. This performance was as a result of lower than planned spending particularly on the externally financed component of the budget during the month.

Payments for wages and salaries during the month amounted to UShs 479.23 billion against the planned UShs 467.83 billion for the month. This was attributed to additional payments made towards the education sector for payment of teachers following the reopening of schools in January 2022.

On the other hand, government spending on non-wage recurrent activities amounted to UShs 698.28 against the planned UShs 824.70 billion. Similarly, expenditure towards domestically financed development activities was lower than planned, amounting to UShs 516.70 billion against the planned target of UShs 1,112.87 billion. The performance under externally financed development activities was affected by absorption challenges faced by the MDAs.

East African Community Developments

EAC Inflation13

Kenya’s headline inflation continued on a downward trend reducing to 5.08% for the year ending February compared to 5.39% the previous month. This was mainly driven by a slowdown in the increase of prices of food &non-alcoholic beverages, as well as housing and utilities following the 15% cut on electricity tariffs introduced effective January 2021. Similarly, Tanzania’s annual inflation rate eased from 4% in January to 3.7% in February as the increase in prices slowed down for food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport and restaurant &hotel services.

On the other hand, annual inflation picked up in Rwanda increasing to 4.2% in February from 1.3% the previous month. This increase was mainly attributed to an increase in prices for education, furnishings, housing and utilities, food and non-alcoholic beverages compared to the same month last year.

EAC Exchange Rates

With the exception of the Uganda Shilling, currencies of other EAC Partner States depreciated against the US Dollar during the month. The Kenyan Shilling, Burundian Franc and Rwandan Franc all depreciated against the US Dollar by 0.3%,0.2% and 0.3% respectively. On the other hand, the value of the Tanzanian Shilling was largely unchanged, depreciating by 0.01% against the US Dollar trading at TShs 2,298.1/USD in February 2022 from TShs 2,297.8/USD in January.

Trade Balance with the EAC

Uganda’s surplus trade performance with the EAC since the start of the Financial Year(FY) continued during the month. Export receipts to the region amounted to USD 119.52 million compared to imports of USD 92.73 million, thereby recording a trade surplus of USD 26.80 million.

Kenya and South Sudan absorbed 81.4% of Uganda`s exports to the EAC, whereas, Kenya and Tanzania contributed 98.0% of Uganda’s imports from the EAC.

Glossary

Term Description
Bid to cover ratio This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM) Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

  1. Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎

  2. Gold exports and imports are excluded in figures for January 2022, pending the resolution of taxation issues between government and industry players.↩︎

  3. Data on exchange rates is not available for South Sudan, inflation data for South Sudan and Burundi was not available.↩︎

  4. Data comes with a month’s lag.↩︎

  5. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  6. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  7. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  8. Gold exports and imports are excluded in figures for January 2022, pending the resolution of taxation issues between government and industry players.↩︎

  9. Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎

  10. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  11. The Import Volume Index declined from 238.37 in December to 215.16 in January.↩︎

  12. Fiscal data for February 2022 is not final and will change↩︎

  13. Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎