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List of Acronyms

Acronym Expansion
BTI Business Tendency Index
BOU Bank of Uganda
B.Franc Burundian Franc
CIEA Composite Index of Economic Activity
EAC East African Community
EFU Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FX Foreign currency
FY Financial Year
HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HPP Hydro Power Plant
ICBT Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs Kenyan Shilling
MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED       Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGO Non-Government Organisation
PAYE Pay as You Earn
PMI Purchasing Managers Index
PSC Private Sector Credit
R.Franc Rwandese Franc
SOPs Standard Operating Procedures
T-Bills Treasury Bills
T-Bonds Treasury Bonds
TShs Tanzanian Shilling
UAE United Arab Emirates
UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD United States Dollar
VAT Value Added Tax

Summary1

Real Sector

  • Economic Activity continued to improve following the gradual easing of the pandemic related restrictions since July, 2021. This was reflected by a monthly increase of 0.36% in the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) in December 2021.

  • Furthermore, during his address to the Nation on 31st December 2021, His Excellence the President of Uganda announced a phased lifting of restrictions on the remaining sectors of the economy, including arts and entertainment, education, and hospitality. Sectors that were operating at half capacity, like public transport were allowed to resume full operations, but with strict observance of Covid-19 standard operating procedures. This re-opening has facilitated pick-up in economic activity as depicted by the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) which increased to 54.9 in January, 2022 from 51.5 in December, 2021.

  • Similarly, sentiments about doing business remained optimistic as indicated by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which increased to 52.78 in January, 2022 from 52.05 in December 2021. Positive sentiments were mainly expressed in manufacturing, wholesale trade and agriculture sectors.

  • Although fuel and food prices increased during the month, overall annual headline inflation slowed down to 2.7% in January 2022 from 2.9% in December 2021. This was due to core inflation that slowed down to 2.3% from 2.9% in December 2021 as prices for public transport fares reduced between the two months following the lifting of Covid-19 related transport restrictions.

Financial Sector

  • The Ugandan shilling appreciated by 0.74% against the US Dollar in January 2022 and traded at a monthly average of UShs 3,528.83/USD. The appreciation was mainly attributed to high inflows from off-shore investor participation in the government Treasury Bond auction during the month.

  • Government raised UShs 966.17 billion (at cost) from 2 T-Bill auctions and 1 T-Bond auction during the month. Securities worth UShs. 519.80 billion were issued for the refinancing of maturing debt while UShs. 446.37 billion went towards financing other items in the government budget.

  • Yields (interest rates) decreased for 182- and 364- day Treasury Bill tenors, while they remained unchanged for 91-day Treasury Bill tenor during the month. The annualized yields for January 2022 were 6.66%, 8.58% and 10.20% compared to 6.66%, 8.66% and 12.39% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors, respectively December 2021.

  • Shilling denominated lending rates reduced to a weighted average of 18.60% in December 2021 from 19.87% in November 2021. This was partly due to reduced risk aversiveness by lending institutions on account of anticipated pick-up in economic activity ahead of the full re-opening of the economy.

  • By the end of December 2021, the stock of outstanding private sector credit increased by 1.03% to UShs 18,926.09 billion compared to UShs 18,733.60 billion recorded in November 2021.

External Sector

  • Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit in December 2021 narrowed to USD 271.6 million when compared to USD 278.7 million registered in November 2021. This was due to an increase in export receipts (USD 1.18 million) and a reduction in imports (USD 6 million) during this period.

  • The performance of exports was mainly due to increased export earnings from coffee which more than offset the reductions registered for fish and beans; while imports were affected by a reduction in government imports.

  • Compared to the same month last year, export receipts declined by 28.5% from USD 455.52 million in December 2020 to USD 325.63 million in December 2021 while imports declined by 24.0% from USD 785.4 million to USD 597.2 million over the same period. This was on account of reduced trade in gold on following the introduction of a new tariff on gold exports in this financial year (2021/22).

  • During December 2021, Uganda recorded its highest merchandise trade surplus with the Rest of Africa (USD 53.54 million) followed by EAC (USD 47.42 million) while deficits were recorded for rest of the regions reviewed.

Fiscal Sector

  • Government operations during the month resulted into a fiscal deficit of UShs 1,304.79 billion, slightly higher than the planned deficit of UShs 1,300.40 billion. This was on account of the higher shortfall in revenue and grants (UShs 186.40 billion) which more than offset the lower than planned expenditure and net lending of UShs 182.04 billion.

  • Revenue and grants amounted to UShs 1,845.22 billion, representing a shortfall of UShs 186.40 billion, against the planned target for the month of UShs 2,031.62 billion. Both revenue and grants registered shortfalls amounting to UShs 89.18 billion and UShs 97.22 billion, respectively. Despite the lifting of restrictions, revenue collections continue to be negatively affected by the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.

  • Government spent UShs 3,150.01 billion which reflects a 94.5% performance against the planned expenditure of UShs 3,332.03 billion. Current expenditures exceeded projections by 8.0%, and were more than offset by development expenditures which performed at 77.0%. The bulk of this underperformance is due to external development expenditures that performed at 26.0% on account of low project execution.

East African Community

  • Annual headline inflation reduced in Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya but increased in Rwanda. Inflation in Kenya and Tanzania reduced to 4.0% and 5.4%, respectively in January 2022 from 4.2% and 5.7% recorded in December 2021. On the other hand, Rwanda’s inflation increased to 1.3% during the month from -2.0% in December 2021, due to higher prices for housing and utilities.

  • With the exception of Uganda shilling, currencies of selected EAC Partner States (excluding South Sudan) depreciated against the US Dollar. This movement was mainly on account of global strengthening of the US Dollar due to recovery of the United States economy.

  • In December 2021, Uganda traded at a surplus worth USD 47.42 million with the EAC compared to a USD 106.2 million deficit registered in December 2020. This was mainly driven by an increase in export receipts (23%) and a decline in imports (62%) over the same period.

Real Sector Developments

Inflation

Annual headline inflation for the year ending January 2022 slowed down to 2.7% from 2.9% registered in December 2021 (see figure 1). This was driven by a slow-down in core inflation following the impact of a decline in public transport fares over the period on the prices of goods and services in the core basket. The slow-down in core inflation more than offset the increase in prices of food crops, energy, fuel, and utilities.

Annual Core inflation reduced to 2.3% in January 2022 from 2.9% the previous month. This was mainly due to a reduction in public transport fares (bus long distance, city bus transportation and taxi fares). Public transport fares have been high as operators were restricted to operating at half capacity since August 2020. The lifting of restrictions on capacities and hours of operations contributed to a drop in fares, which offset the impact of the higher fuel prices on public transport fares during the month.

On the other hand, annual inflation for Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) increased to 6.5% in January, 2022 from 3.2% in December, 2021 (see figure 2). This was on account of an increase in domestic fuel prices, particularly petrol, diesel, and paraffin, which is attributed to supply shortages within the country. In addition, the high global fuel prices further contributed to the increase in domestic pump prices.

Food crops inflation also increased to 3.7% in the year ending January 2022 from 2.8% the previous month (see figure 2). This was driven by higher prices for fruits particularly pineapples, passion fruits, watermelon and sweet bananas during the period under review. In addition, prices of matooke, tomatoes and yams increased during the period under review.

Economic Activity

The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased by 0.36% from 146.21 in November 2021 to 146.73 in December 2021, indicating continued recovery of economic activity following the gradual re-opening of the economy (see figure 3).

The PMI was recorded at 54.9 in January, 2022 up from 51.5 recorded in December, 2021. All the five broad sectors captured by the PMI reported increase in business activity in January. Total new orders rose which encouraged firms to increase their staffing levels and expand purchasing activity. However, the higher fuel costs contributed to increased input costs.

Business Perceptions

Business perceptions remained optimistic as reflected by the increase in the Business Tendency Index (BTI) from 52.05 in December, 2021 to 52.78 in January, 2022. There was optimism particularly in manufacturing, wholesale trade and agriculture sectors. The key indicators within BTI that recorded improvements were; current business conditions, projected business conditions (3 months ahead), order volumes with supplies, and the financial situation.

Financial Sector Developments

Exchange Rate Movements

During January 2022, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated by 0.74% against the US dollar, recording a monthly average of UShs 3,528.83/US$ from UShs 3,554.99/US$ registered in December 2021 (see figure 6). This appreciation was on account of subdued dollar demand from the manufacturing, trade, telecom, and energy sectors amidst stronger inflows mainly from offshore players and NGOs. The relatively high rates on government securities continue to attract offshore investors to the securities market.

Similarly, the Ugandan Shilling appreciated against the Euro by 0.63% but depreciated by 1.10% against the pound sterling. The Shilling traded at monthly averages of UShs 3,993.14/Euro and UShs 4,784.17/GBP, respectively in the month.

Interest Rate Movements

During January 2022, the Central Bank Rate was maintained at 6.5% for the eighth consecutive month. This was a deliberate action for monetary policy to continue supporting economic recovery from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lending Rates2

In December 2021, the Shilling denominated lending rates reduced to a weighted average of 18.60% from 19.87% recorded in November 2021. This was partly due to reduced risk aversiveness by lending institutions on account of anticipated pick-up in economic activity ahead of the full re-opening of the economy.

On the other hand, foreign currency denominated credit lending rates increased to a weighted average of 6.26% in December 2021 from 5.16% in November 2021.

Government Securities

There were two T-Bill auctions and one T-Bond auction during the month. UShs. 966.17 billion (at cost) was raised, of which UShs. 400.01 billion was from short term discount instruments (T-Bills), and UShs. 566.17 billion was from T-Bonds.

Trends in issuances of Government Securities (UUShs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Total Issuances Financing other items in the Government budget Refinancing
Q1 2021/22 3,318.19 1,593.95 1,724.24
Q2 2021/22 2,781.26 745.91 2,035.35
January 2022 966.17 446.37 519.8
FY 2021/22 to date 7,065.62 2,786.23 4,279.39

Of the amount raised, UShs. 519.80 billion was used for refinancing maturing domestic debt instruments, while, UShs. 446.37 billion went towards financing other activities in the Government budget.

Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

In comparison with December 2021, yields (interest rates) on treasury bills declined for the 182 and 364 day tenors but remained unchanged for the 91-day tenor. This development was largely on account of higher demand for these tenors. The annualized yields for January 2022 were 6.66%, 8.58% and 10.20% for the 91, 182 and 364 day tenors, respectively. This compares with 6.66%, 8.66% and 12.39% in December 2021 (see figure 9).

The average bid to cover ratio (an indicator of demand for government securities) for the month was 2.02, an increase from 1.79 registered the previous month (see figure 10). During the month, demand was highest for the 364-day tenor with the bid to cover ratio of 2.25.

Yields on Treasury Bonds3

Government reopened two T-Bond instruments, i.e. 3-year and 15-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on these instruments edged downwards partly explained by increased demand. The YTM for the 3-year tenor reduced to 12.09% in January 2022 from 13.10% in November 2021, whereas, the YTM for the 15-year tenor was 14.39% in January 2022 from 15.50% in November 2021.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit4

The stock of outstanding private sector credit in December 2021 amounted to UShs. 18,926.09 billion, representing an increase of 1.03% from the UShs. 18,733.60 billion recorded in November 2021 (see figure 11). Foreign currency denominated credit increased by 1.72% while shillings denominated grew by 0.67% for the period under review.

Credit Extensions5

During December 2021, credit worth UShs. 915.08 billion was approved for disbursement to the private sector from lending institutions. This represented an approval rate of 56% of the amount of loans applied for during the month, which was lower than the 59% approval rate recorded in November 2021. In value terms, the amount of credit disbursed during December was 20.4% lower than November 2021 levels. Figure 13 shows a comparison of new credit approved by sector classification during November and December 2021.

With the exception of manufacturing, all sectors recorded decreases in credit extensions in December 2021 when compared to November 2021. The agriculture sector registered the highest reduction of UShs 92.35 billion, followed by trade (UShs 88.86 billion), and personal loans & household loans (UShs 41.08 billion). The manufacturing sector recorded an increase in credit of UShs 21.97 billion.

Despite the reduction, personal loans and household loans continued to take up the largest share of credit extensions during December 2021 accounting for 26.2% (see figure 14). This was followed by trade (at 20.4%) and manufacturing (at 14.6%) in the second and third positions respectively. The share of the agricultural sector reduced from 18.2% in November 2021 to 12.8% in December 2021 on account of the huge reduction explained earlier.

External Sector Developments

Merchandise Trade Balance6

In December 2021, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 271.6 million from USD 278.7 million in November 2021. This was on account of an increase in export receipts and a reduction in imports during the month.

Compared to the same month last year, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by USD 58.3 million from USD 329.9 million recorded in December 2020 as both imports and exports decreased during the period. This was mainly due to a reduction in trade volumes of mineral products (gold) on account of a new tariff which was introduced on gold at the start of FY 2021/22.

Merchandise Exports

Export receipts increased marginally by 0.36% from USD 324.45 million in November 2021 to USD 325.63 million in December 2021. This was mainly due to increased export earnings from coffee (by 5.86%) which more than offset the reductions for fish and beans. Coffee benefited from higher volumes exported and a rise in global coffee prices. The rise in global prices was partly due to lower supply of coffee as a result of unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil and shortage of shipping containers. Similarly, earnings from cotton, tea, tobacco and maize increased because of higher export volumes during the period under review (see table 2).

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) (Source: BoU and MoFPED Calc.)
Product Dec-2020 Nov-2021 Dec-2021 Dec-2021 vs
Dec-2020
% Change 		Dec-2021 vs
Nov-2021
% Change
Total Exports 455.52 324.45 325.63 -28.51 0.36
Coffee
Value Exported 37.78 71.09 75.25 99.17 5.86
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) 0.42 0.52 0.54 26.95 2.28
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) 1.49 2.26 2.34 56.89 3.5
Non-Coffee Formal Exports 377.85 206.35 202.63 -46.37 -1.8
of which:-
Mineral Products (Gold) 211.35 0 0 -100 NaN
Cotton 0.3 1.11 3.05 900.72 174.45
Tea 7.32 7.47 8.04 9.89 7.68
Tobacco 7.16 2.77 4.02 -43.79 45.21
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) 9.87 14.09 12.21 23.79 -13.31
Oil Re-Exports 8.16 8.24 9.19 12.71 11.56
Base Metals & Products 8.77 12.5 17.86 103.58 42.88
Maize 2.96 1.87 2.7 -8.57 44.45
Beans 11.78 13.38 12.47 5.9 -6.78
Flowers 4.05 4.61 4.72 16.48 2.33
ICBT Exports 39.89 47.01 47.75 19.7 1.57

Compared to the same month last year, export receipts declined by 28.5% from USD 455.52 million to USD 325.63 million in December 2021. This decline in exports was mainly attributed to the current halt in gold exports which have been affected by the delay in the approval of the mining amendment bill 2021.

Destination of Exports7

The East African Community (EAC) took the largest share of Uganda‘s exports (38.7%) during the month of December 2021. It was followed by the Rest of Africa (24.2%) and the European Union (22.4%).

At a regional level, the value of exports to the EAC increased from USD 102 million in December 2020 to USD 126 million in December 2021.

Merchandise Imports8 (Source: BOU)]

Uganda‘s import bill (fob) reduced by 1.0% to USD 597.2 million in December 2021 from USD 603.2 million the previous month following a reduction in government imports. Government imports declined by 48.2% to USD 19.1 million from USD 36.8 million in November 2021, largely due to lower project related imports in December 2021. On the other hand, private sector imports increased during the month by 2.1% to USD 578.1 million from USD 566.4 million, which is partly due to recovering demand. Categories that recorded major increases included petroleum products; chemical & related products; textile & products; machinery equipment; vehicles & accessories, among others.

Compared to December 2020, there was a reduction in imports by 24.0% from USD 785.4 million to USD 597.2 million in December 2021, as both government and private sector imports declined. Government imports declined by 68.7% from USD 61.0 million in December 2020 due to lower project imports, while private sector imports declined by 20.2%, due to lower non-oil related imports.

Asia remained Uganda’s main source of imports, accounting for 46.8% of total imports during the month, followed by the European Union and Middle East, with shares of 14.2% and 13.9%, respectively (see figure 21).

Comparison between December 2020 and December 2021 shows that imports from the EAC and the Rest of Africa significantly declined, partly due to lower imports of mineral products from those regions.

Trade Balance by Region

In the month of December 2021, Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for EAC and Rest of Africa. Uganda registered its largest trade deficit with Asia (USD 255.5 million), followed by Middle East (USD 74.2 million), as shown in table 3.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) (Source: BoU)
Region Dec 2020 Nov 2021 Dec 2021
European Union -52.64 18.27 -11.93
Rest of Europe -4.48 -6.14 -11.38
Middle East 158.57 -87.61 -74.22
Asia -255.96 -270.12 -255.54
EAC -106.2 37.31 47.42
Rest of Africa -56.39 52.96 53.54
Other Countries -12.78 -23.43 -19.48

Uganda recorded its highest trade surplus with the Rest of Africa followed by the EAC during December 2021. This performance was majorly due to increased export receipts and a reduction in the import bill from these regions. During the month, Uganda recorded trade surpluses of USD 47.4 million and USD 53.5 million with EAC and Rest of Africa, respectively.

Fiscal Developments 9

Preliminary data shows that government operations in January 2022 resulted in an overall deficit of UShs 1,304.79 billion, which was slightly above the planned deficit of UShs 1,300.40 billion for the month. This was on account of a shortfall in revenue and grants (UShs 186.40 billion), which was partly offset by lower than planned expenditures.

Revenue and Grants

Revenues and grants for the month of January 2022 amounted to UShs 1,845.22 billion against a plan of UShs 2,031.62 billion. Both revenues and grants registered shortfalls amounting to UShs 89.18 billion and UShs 97.22 billion, respectively.

Domestic Revenues

Domestic revenue in January 2022 amounted to UShs 1,836.02 billion, representing a 95.3% performance (UShs 89.18 billion shortfall) against the planned revenues of UShs 1,925.20 billion, with both tax and non-tax revenue collections falling short of their respective targets for the month. Of the total collections, UShs 1,688.35 billion was tax revenue while UShs 147.67 billion was from non-tax revenue collections. Despite the lifting of restrictions, revenue collections continue to be negatively affected by the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy. This is in addition to delays in implementation of some tax administrative measures for the financial year.

Tax revenue collections for the month amounted to UShs 1,688.35 billion, registering a shortfall of UShs 83.8 billion or 4.7% against the planned target, as collections on all the major tax categories underperformed during the month.

Direct domestic tax collections amounted to UShs 526.08 billion against the planned UShs 546.37 billion for the month. This performance was on account of lower collections from withholding tax, rental income tax and presumptive tax, which more than offset the surpluses recorded under PAYE and corporate tax. The surplus on PAYE collections was due to a pickup in employment following the full re-opening of the economy, while the surplus for corporate tax was on account of improved profitability.

Indirect domestic revenue tax collections for the month amounted to UShs 475.12 billion against the target of UShs 541.29 billion. This was attributed to shortfalls on both VAT and excise duty collections during the month. Collections under excise duty continue to be affected by administrative difficulties in enforcement of the digital tracking system and lower than planned consumption of items such as beer, spirits, cigarettes and soft drinks during the month. Similarly, collections under VAT continue to be affected by roll-out challenges of the Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing System (EFRIS).

Taxes on international trade and transactions amounted to UShs 693.67 billion against the planned UShs 716.09 billion which translated into a shortfall of UShs 22.42 billion. This performance was mainly on account of shortfalls registered under import duty as taxes charged on dutiable goods fell short of the target by UShs 34.91 billion.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations January 2022 (UUShs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Shs Billion Program Outturn Performance Deviation
Revenues and grants 2,031.62 1,845.22 90.8% -186.4
      Revenues 1,925.2 1,836.02 95.4% -89.18
            Tax 1,772.14 1,688.35 95.3% -83.79
            Non-tax 153.06 147.67 96.5% -5.38
      Grants 106.42 9.2 8.6% -97.22
                  o/w Project support 106.42 9.2 8.6% -97.22
Expenditures and lending 3,332.03 3,150.01 94.5% -182.01
      Current expenditures 1,833.01 1,980.16 108.0% 147.16
            Wages and salaries 467.83 488.55 104.4% 20.72
            Interest payments 540.47 540.47 100.0% 0
                  o/w domestic 371.83 371.83 100.0% 0
                  o/w external 168.64 168.64 100.0% 0
            Other recurrent expenditure 824.7 951.14 115.3% 126.44
      Development expenditures 1,484.91 1,143.99 77.0% -340.92
            Domestic 1,112.87 1,047.09 94.1% -65.78
            External 372.04 96.91 26.0% -275.14
      Net lending/repayments 0 7.86 __ 7.86
                  o/w HPP GoU 0 7.86 __ 7.86
      HPP Exim 0 0 __ 0
      Domestic arrears repayment 14.1 18 127.6% 3.89
Overall fiscal balance -1,300.4 -1,304.79 __ __

Expenditure

Government expenditure in January 2022 amounted to UShs 3,150.01 billion, representing a 94.5% performance against the planned of UShs 3,332.03 billion for the month. This performance was mainly on account of lower than planned spending on externally financed development activities over this period.

During the month, government’s recurrent expenditure amounted to UShs 1,980.16 billion, which was 8% above the target for the month. This performance was mainly due to the higher than planned expenditure under wages & salaries and other non-wage recurrent spending. The increase in wages and salaries for the month was attributed to supplementary expenditures issued to universities, the health and justice sectors to cover additional recruitment and increments in wages. In addition, there was a 15.3% expenditure overrun on non-wage recurrent activities which was attributed to additional expenditure under the security and health sectors, to cover COVID-19 vaccination efforts and enforcement of the SOPs.

Performance of development expenditure was greatly affected by the lower than planned spending on externally financed development activities during the month. This was on account of low disbursements due to absorption challenges faced by MDA’s. However, it should be noted that performance of the external development budget is tied to the disbursement of funds by external development partners and therefore does not necessarily reflect the physical progress of projects.

Government spending towards domestically financed projects amounted to UShs 1,047.09 billion representing a 94.1% performance against the target for the month. This was due to payments made towards the works, transport and security sectors during the month. This was partly due to the re-allocation of some development expenditure at the start of the financial year in order to support the Covid-19 interventions.

East African Community Developments

EAC Inflation10

Similar to Uganda, annual headline inflation rates for Tanzania and Kenya reduced during the month, while increases were recorded for Rwanda. Tanzania’s and Kenya’s headline inflation rates were recorded at 4.0% and 5.39% in January 2022 down from 4.2% and 5.73% in December 2021 respectively. The slow-down in Kenya’s inflation was due to lower prices for food crops & non-alcoholic beverages; housing & utilities and transport while in Tanzania, there was a general reduction in prices for goods and services in the core basket.

On the other hand, Rwanda recorded an increase in annual headline inflation from minus 2.0% in December 2021 to 1.3% in January 2022 largely due to price increases registered for housing and utilities.

EAC Exchange Rates

Except the Uganda Shilling, national currencies of other EAC Partner States (excluding South Sudan) depreciated against the US dollar in January 2022. The Kenyan and Tanzanian Shillings depreciated by 0.4% and 0.1% respectively, while the Rwandese and Burundi Francs each depreciated by 0.3% (see figure 24).

Trade Balance with the EAC

During the month of December 2021, Uganda recorded a merchandise trade surplus with the rest of the EAC Partner States worth US$ 47.42 million which is an improvement when compared to a deficit of US$ 106.2 million in December 2020. This performance was on account of a combination of increased exports (by 23%) and a reduction in imports (by 62%) over the period.

The largest trade surplus was recorded with South Sudan at US$ 52.04 million, followed by Burundi (at US$ 7.79 million) and Tanzania (at US$ 2.30 million); while trade deficits were recorded with Kenya (at US$ 14.50 million) and Rwanda (at US$ 0.20 million). At country specific level, Kenya remained Uganda’s biggest trade partner within the EAC in the month, with total trade worth US$ 106.66 million followed by South Sudan with total trade worth US$ 54.48 million.

Glossary

Term Description
Bid to cover ratio This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA CIEA (Composite Index of Economic Activity) is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM) Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

  1. Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎

  2. Data comes with a month’s lag.↩︎

  3. Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts using previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.↩︎

  4. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  5. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  6. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  7. Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎

  8. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  9. Fiscal data for January 2022 is not final and will change↩︎

  10. Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎