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List of Acronyms

Acronym		Expansion
BTI		Business Tendency Index
BOU		Bank of Uganda
B.Franc		Burundian Franc
CIEA		Composite Index of Economic Activity
EAC		East African Community
EFU		Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FX		Foreign currency
FY		Financial Year
HIPC		Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HPP		Hydro Power Plant
ICBT		Informal Cross Border Trade
KUShs		Kenyan Shilling
MDAs		Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED		Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGO		Non-Government Organisation
PAYE		Pay as You Earn
PMI		Purchasing Managers Index
PSC		Private Sector Credit
R.Franc		Rwandese Franc
SOPs		Standard Operating Procedures
T-Bills		Treasury Bills
T-Bonds		Treasury Bonds
TUShs		Tanzanian Shilling
UAE		United Arab Emirates
UBOS		Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs		Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD		United States Dollar
VAT		Value Added Tax

Summary¹

Real Sector

Economic Activity continued to improve following the gradual easing of COVID-19 pandemic related restrictions since July. This is shown by a monthly increase of 1.06% in the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) in November 2021.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above the 50 threshold for the fifth month in a row, further signaling improved economic activity in December 2021. The PMI was recorded at 51.5 for the month.
Sentiments about doing business remained optimistic as indicated by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) which increased to 51.94 in December 2021 from 51.70 in November 2021. Optimism was mainly expressed in the wholesale trade and agricultural sectors.
Annual headline inflation increased to 2.9% in December 2021 from 2.6% in November 2021 as prices for items such as health, food & non-alcoholic beverages, furnishing and household equipment and transport increased during the month.

Financial Sector

The Ugandan shilling remained relatively stable against the US Dollar in December 2021 slightly depreciating by 0.1% to a period average of UShs 3,554.99/USD up from UShs 3,551.52/USD in November 2021.
Government raised UShs 1,050.40 billion (at cost) from 2 T-Bill auctions and 2 T-Bond auctions during the month. Securities worth UShs. 753.80 billion were issued for the refinancing of maturing debt while UShs. 296.60 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget.
Yields (interest rates) decreased for all Treasury Bill tenors during the month. The annualized yields for December 2021 were 6.66%, 8.66% and 10.43% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors, respectively. This compares with 6.69%, 8.79% and 10.58% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors respectively in November 2021.
Shilling denominated lending rates continued on upward trend from a weighted average of 19.7% in October 2021 to 19.9% in November 2021. This increase was partly explained by continued risk aversiveness among commercial banks during the month. On the other hand, foreign currency denominated lending rates decreased over the same period.
By the end of November 2021, the total outstanding private sector credit was UShs 18,733.60 billion. This was an increase of 0.8% from the UShs 18,586.07 billion the previous month.

External Sector

Uganda’s trade deficit in the month of November 2021 widened to USD 314.6 million when compared to USD 283.2 million registered in November 2020. Similarly, the trade deficit widened between October 2021 and November 2021 as the import bill increased which more than offset the increase in export receipts during this period.
Export receipts increased by 12.4% from USD 288.57 million in October 2021 to USD 324.45 million in November 2021, largely due to increased export earnings from sugar and coffee.
Uganda`s import bill increased by 25.2% to USD 639.01 million in November 2021 from USD 510.29 million the previous month as both government and the private sector imports such as petroleum products, plastics, rubber, machinery etc increased during the month.
Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for the European Union, Rest of Africa and the EAC. During the month of November 2021, Uganda recorded the highest trade surplus with the Rest of Africa followed by the EAC.

Fiscal Sector

Preliminary data shows that government operations in December 2021 resulted into an overall fiscal surplus of UShs 146.96 billion against a planned fiscal surplus of UShs 464.07 billion for the month. However, during the period of July 2021 to December 2021, fiscal operations resulted into an overall deficit of UShs. 4,095.40 billion as government registered shortfalls in revenue collections coupled with additional expenditure requirements.
Domestic revenue in December 2021 amounted to UShs 2,465.95 billion, representing a shortfall of UShs. 205.9 billion against the planned UShs 2,671.89 billion target for the month. Similarly, on a cumulative basis (July-December 2021), domestic revenue collections totalled to UShs 10,213.03 billion resulting into a cumulative shortfall of UShs 880.9 billion against the cumulative target. However this cumulative performance indicates a 3.1% growth in revenues when compared to the same period in FY 2020/21.
Government spent UShs 2,494.45 billion, which reflects a 104.0% performance against the planned target of UShs 2,398.75 billion during the month of December 2021. Cumulatively, total government spending for the first half of the financial year (July –December 2021) amounted to UShs. 14,702.1 billion less than UShs. 17, 797.4 billion spent during the same period in the previous financial year.

East African Community

Annual headline inflation increased in Uganda, Tanzania and South Sudan but decreased in Kenya. On the other hand, prices in Rwanda decreased at a slower rate during the month as headline inflation was recorded at minus 2.0% from the minus 3.4% in November 2021.
All selected currencies under the EAC depreciated against the US Dollar. This movement was mainly on account of global strengthening of the US Dollar.
In November 2021, Uganda traded at a surplus worth USD 31.39 million with the EAC compared to the USD 18.08 million surplus registered in October 2021. This movement was mainly driven by an increase in export receipts which more than offset the increase in the import bill over the same period.

Real Sector Developments

Inflation

Annual headline inflation for the year ending December 2021 increased to 2.9% from 2.6% registered in November 2021. This movement was mainly driven by a rise in both core and EFU inflation that followed an increase in costs of transport and education services along with an increase in domestic fuel pump prices.

Annual Core inflation also increased to 2.9% in December 2021 from 2.6% the previous month. This was mainly due to an increase in the costs of transport and education services. Transport costs increased in line with a recorded rise in domestic fuel pump prices while the cost of education services increased as demand for education scholastic materials rose ahead of the reopening of schools in January 2022.

Food crops inflation decreased to 2.8% in the year ending December 2021 from 3.6% the previous month. This was mainly due to a reduction in prices for fruits including avocado, apples and oranges, legumes such as ground nuts, peas and beans, as well as vegetables such as tomatoes, cucumbers and carrots.

On the other hand, annual inflation for Energy, Fuels and Utilities increased to 2.8% in December 2021 from 2.0% in November 2021. This was on account of an increase in domestic fuel prices particularly prices of petrol, diesel, paraffin and liquefied gas. The increase in domestic fuel prices followed the rise in international oil prices brought about by limited fuel supply on the international market as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil producing countries limited production throughout 2021 to support higher crude oil prices.

Economic Activity

The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) increased by 1.06% from 147.36 in October 2021 to 148.92 in November 2021, indicating rising levels of economic activity as the economy continues to recover from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. See figure 3 below;

The headline Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for December 2021 was registered at 51.5, down from 54.1 registered in November 2021. Despite the decrease, the PMI remained above the 50 threshold signalling improvements in business conditions. All the monitored sectors saw an increase in customer numbers as demand continues to pick up resulting into an increase in both output and new orders during the month.

However, the employment sub-component of the index decreased in December 2021 as some firms indicated that they had reduced staffing levels in order to limit costs. See figure 4;

Business Perceptions

Sentiments about doing business among the business community remained optimistic as shown by the increase in the Business Tendency Index (BTI) from 51.70 in November 2021 to 51.94 in December 2021. Optimism was mainly expressed in the wholesale trade and agricultural sectors as the economy gradually opens up.

Financial Sector Developments

Exchange Rate Movements

During the month of December 2021, the Ugandan shilling remained relatively stable against the US Dollar, slightly depreciating by 0.1% to a period average of UShs 3,554.99/USD up from UShs 3,551.52 in November 2021. This slight depreciation was mainly on account of global strengthening of the US Dollar.

However, the Shilling appreciated by 3.0% when compared to December 2020. This appreciation was mainly influenced by net inflows from remittances and portfolio investments.

On the other hand, the shilling appreciated by 0.9% against both the Pound Sterling and the Euro trading at UShs 4,732.14/Pound and UShs 4,018.48/Euro respectively.

Interest Rate Movements

During December 2021, Bank of Uganda maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6.5, this was done as a measure to remain consistent with meeting the inflation target of 5% sustainably in the medium term. This accommodative monetary policy stance is intended to support economic recovery from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Lending Rates²

Commercial banks’ shilling denominated lending rates continued on an upward trend from a weighted average of 19.7% in October 2021 to 19.9% in November 2021. This movement was partly explained by commercial banks’ risk aversiveness due to uncertainty associated with the adverse impact of the pandemic.

On the other hand, foreign currency denominated lending rates reduced from a weighted average of 5.6% to 5.2% over the same period.

Government Securities

During the month, there were 2 T-Bill auctions and 2 T-Bond auctions in the primary market. UShs 1,050.40 billion (at cost) was raised, of which UShs 480.76 billion was from T-Bills and UShs 569.64 billion was from T-bonds.

Trends in issuances of Government Securities (UShs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
	Total Issuances	Financing other items in the Government budget	Refinancing
Q1 2021/22	3,318.19	1,593.95	1,724.24
Q2 2021/22	2,781.26	745.91	2,035.35
October 2021	884.06	96	788.06
November 2021	846.8	353.31	493.49
December 2021	1,050.4	296.6	753.8
FY 2021/22 to date	6,099.45	2,339.86	3,759.59

Securities worth UShs. 753.80 billion were issued for the refinancing of maturing debt whilst UShs. 296.60 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget.

Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

Yields (interest rates) decreased for all Treasury Bill tenors during the month. The annualized yields for December were 6.66%, 8.66% and 10.43% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors, respectively. This compares with 6.69%, 8.79% and 10.58% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors respectively in November 2021. The decrease in yields is mainly explained by continued high demand for treasury bills amid a reduction in government borrowing requirements.

All auctions during the month were oversubscribed with the bid to cover ratio (an indicator of demand) being recorded at 1.79. During the month, demand was highest for the 91-day tenor. This is attributed to the low yields in the market, which tend to incentivize investors to put their money on shorter dated tenors.

Yields on Treasury Bonds³

During the month, Government held two auctions for longer dated tenors, with yields edging upwards on both auctions. During the first auction, Government reopened two tenors, i.e 2-year and 10-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on the 2-year tenor saw an increase from 10.00% in September to 11.00% in December. Likewise, the YTM on the 10-year tenor increased from 13.50% in September to 14.00% in December 2021.

During the second bond auction, Government reopened 5-year and 20-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on the 5-year tenor was 14.39% in December higher than 13.00% recorded in October. Similarly, the rate on the 20-year tenor increased to 15.90% in December from 15.50% in October 2021.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit⁴

The stock of outstanding private sector credit in November 2021 was UShs 18,733.60 billion from UShs 18,586.07 billion the previous month. This reflects a slight increase of 0.8% from the amount in October 2021 as shown in Figure 12.

The increase in stock was mainly on account of higher extensions for foreign currency denominated credit during the month compared to October 2021. Foreign currency denominated credit stock increased by 1.2% while the shilling denominated credit increased by 0.6% over the same period.

Credit Extensions⁵

During the month of November 2021, credit worth UShs 1,149.2 billion was approved and disbursed by the lending institutions. This was a 32.2% increase from the UShs 869.3 billion disbursed in October 2021.The level of credit extended to the private sector during November 2021 was equivalent to 59.2% of the value applied for (UShs 1,940.2 billion), this performance is mainly explained by risk aversiveness by commercial banks due to uncertainty associated with the adverse impact of the pandemic.

However, this performance is an improvement from the 48% and 53.4% credit extension approval rate recorded in November 2020 and October 2021 respectively.

Comparing new credit extensions approved between October 2021 and November 2021, the agricultural sector registered the highest increase in credit extensions (UShs 86.84 billion), followed by trade (UShs 75.33 billion), personal & household loans (UShs 46.78 billion), building, construction & real estate (UShs 31.38 billion) and business services (UShs 28.28 billion). The increase in extensions towards trade was attributed to optimism expressed among the business community as the economy fully opens up in January 2022.

Personal and household loans continued to take the biggest share (24.4%) of total credit extended in November 2021. This was followed by trade (24.0%), agriculture (18.2%), building, construction and real estate (10.8%), manufacturing (9.7%), business, community, social and other services (9.3%).

External Sector Developments

Merchandise Trade Balance⁶

In November 2021, Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit widened to USD 314.6 million from USD 221.7 million in October 2021. This was on account of an increase in the import bill which more than offset the increase in export receipts during the month.

Compared to the same month last year,the merchandise trade deficit expanded by USD 31.4 million from USD 283.2 million recorded in November 2020 as exports decreased at a faster rate than imports during the period. This was mainly on account of a reduction in exports and imports of gold as the government introduced a new tariff which discouraged gold traders.

Merchandise Exports

Export receipts increased by 12.4% from USD 288.57 million in October 2021 to USD 324.45 million in November 2021, largely due to increased export earnings from sugar and coffee. Increased earnings from coffee followed higher export volumes and global coffee prices whereas higher receipts from sugar were largely on account of increased export volumes. The increase in global coffee prices was partly due to lower supply of coffee as a result of weather-related conditions in Brazil and shortage of shipping containers.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) (Source: BoU and MoFPED Calc.)
Product	Nov-2020	Oct-2021	Nov-2021	Nov-2021 vs Nov-2020 % Change	Nov-2021 vs Oct-2021 % Change
Total Exports	420.58	288.57	324.45	-22.86	12.44
Coffee
Value Exported	38.29	61.43	71.09	85.67	15.71
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags)	0.43	0.49	0.52	21.98	7.89
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee)	1.48	2.1	2.26	52.22	7.26
Non-Coffee Formal Exports	343.61	178.71	206.35	-39.94	15.47
of which:-
Mineral Products (Gold)	173.9	0	0	-100	NaN
Cotton	2.5	0.57	1.11	-55.58	95.79
Tea	7.96	8.3	7.47	-6.12	-9.96
Tobacco	4.61	4.41	2.77	-39.9	-37.25
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional)	12.92	11.4	14.09	9.05	23.58
Oil Re-Exports	7.73	10.78	8.24	6.63	-23.54
Base Metals & Products	8.75	12.59	12.5	42.83	-0.73
Maize	5.15	1.79	1.87	-63.7	4.79
Beans	9.46	7.11	13.38	41.42	88.29
Flowers	3.41	4.58	4.61	35.14	0.64
ICBT Exports	38.69	48.42	47.01	21.51	-2.91

Compared to the same month last year, export receipts declined by 22.9% from USD 420.58 million to USD 324.45 million in November 2021. This decline in exports was mainly attributed to the current halt in gold exports which have been affected by the delay in the approval of the mining amendment bill 2021.

Destination of Exports⁷

The East African Community (EAC) took the largest share of Uganda`s exports (42.2%) during the month of November 2021. It was followed by the Rest of Africa (24.2%) and the European Union (20.6%).

At a regional level, the value of exports to the EAC increased from USD 110.86 million in November 2020 to USD 136.98 million in November 2021.

Merchandise Imports⁸ ⁹

Uganda`s import bill (fob) increased by 25.2% to USD 639.01 million in November 2021 from USD 510.29 million the previous month following an increase in the import volumes . Both government and the private sector imports increased during the month. Categories that recorded major increases included petroleum products (plastics, rubber, & related products), machinery equipment, vehicles & accessories.

Despite the increase in the import bill from October 2021 to November 2021, there was a 9% decrease in the import bill from USD 703.77 million recorded in November 2020. This reduction was largely attributed to a decrease in the imports of mineral products (gold).

Asia remained Uganda`s main source of imports, with a share of 48.5%. The EAC and Middle East were second and third, with shares of 16.5% and 15.8% respectively. Imports from Asia were mainly from China (47.6%), India (24.2%) and Malaysia (12.3%).

Comparison between November 2020 and November 2021 shows that imports from the EAC and the Rest of Africa declined by 37.4% and 71.5% respectively, as imports of mineral products from those regions declined.

Trade Balance by Region

In the month of November 2021, Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for the European Union, Rest of Africa and the EAC. Uganda registered its largest trade deficit with Asia, which increased from USD 263.58 million in November 2020 to USD 287.48 million in November 2021 following higher imports.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) (Source: BoU)
Region	Nov 2020	Oct 2021	Nov 2021
European Union	-33.87	18.08	15.39
Rest of Europe	-5.61	-5.56	-6.78
Middle East	120.98	-99.5	-93.25
Asia	-263.58	-208.78	-287.48
EAC	-57.74	20.48	31.39
Rest of Africa	-33.82	59.42	51.45
Other Countries	-9.56	-5.87	-25.27

Uganda recorded its highest trade surplus with the Rest of Africa followed by the EAC during November 2021. This performance was majorly due to increased export receipts and a reduction in the import bill from these regions. During the month, Uganda recorded trade surpluses of USD 31.39 million and USD 51.45 million with the EAC and the Rest of Africa, respectively.

Fiscal Developments ¹⁰

Preliminary data shows that government operations in December 2021 resulted into an overall fiscal surplus of UShs 146.96 billion against a planned fiscal surplus of UShs 464.07 billion for the month. However, during the period of July 2021 to December 2021, fiscal operations resulted into an overall deficit of UShs 4,095.40 billion as government registered shortfalls in revenue collections coupled with additional expenditure requirements.

Table 5 shows a summary of fiscal operations during the month of December 2021;

Revenue and Grants

Revenue and grants during the month amounted to UShs 2, 641.41 billion against the planned target of UShs 2,862.82 billion. This was on account of shortfalls worth UShs 205.94 billion registered under revenues and UShs 15.46 billion registered under grants. Grants received during the month amounted to UShs 175.46 billion.

On a half year basis (July –December 2021), revenue and grants amounted to UShs. 10,606.7 billion which was lower than the planned UShs 11,984.9 billion. This was on account of revenue shortfalls and less than programmed grants received during this period.

Domestic Revenues

Domestic revenue in December 2021 amounted to UShs 2,465.95 billion, representing a shortfall of UShs. 205.9 billion against the planned UShs 2,671.89 billion target for the month. Cumulatively, since the start of the Financial year, domestic revenue collections totalled UShs. 10,213.03 billion resulting into a cumulative shortfall of UShs. 880.9 billion against the UShs 11,093.2 billion target for the period. However, this performance indicates a 3.1% growth in revenues when compared to the same period in FY 2020/21. This cumulative shortfall in domestic revenue is majorly as a result of adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and delays in implementation of some of the planned tax measures for financial year 2021/22.

Tax revenue collections for the month of December 2021 amounted to UShs 2,354.90 billion, posting a shortfall of UShs 181.93 billion against the planned target of UShs 2,536.82 billion. This performance was mainly on account of underperformance in direct taxes which more than offset the surplus registered in taxes on international trade collections.

Direct domestic tax collections totalled to UShs 1,137.54 billion representing a performance of 82.0% against the December 2021 target. This was mainly due to a decline in corporate tax collections as firms were not as profitable as anticipated during the month; lower than planned collections from rental income tax due to the slow implementation of the rental income tax measures and shortfalls under withholding tax. However, Pay As You Earn (PAYE) tax collections during the month were UShs 31.97 billion above the target.

Indirect tax collections in December 2021 amounted to UShs 446.12 billion against the planned UShs 466.87 billion. This was due to difficulties in effective enforcement of the digital tracking system and lower than anticipated consumption of items such as spirits, beer and internet data as the pace of economic recovery was slower than earlier anticipated.

VAT shortfalls amounted to UShs 309.03 billion against the planned UShs 310.74 billion. Collections were affected by continued roll-out challenges of the Electronic Receipting and Invoicing System (EFRIS).

On the other hand, taxes on international trade and transactions during the month of December 2021 amounted to UShs 797.79 billion, which resulted into a surplus of UShs 90.89 billion against the planned target of UShs 706.89 billion. This performance was mainly on account of surpluses collected for petroleum duty and VAT on imports.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations December 2021 (UShs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Shs Billion	Program	Outturn	Performance	Deviation
Revenues and grants	2,862.82	2,641.41	92.3%	-221.4
Revenues	2,671.89	2,465.95	92.3%	-205.94
Tax	2,536.82	2,354.9	92.8%	-181.93
Non-tax	135.07	111.06	82.2%	-24.02
Grants	190.92	175.46	91.9%	-15.46
o/w Project support	190.92	133.71	70.0%	-57.21
Expenditures and lending	2,398.75	2,494.45	104.0%	95.7
Current expenditures	1,225.1	1,452.26	118.5%	227.16
Wages and salaries	457.59	498.4	108.9%	40.81
Interest payments	280.84	280.84	100.0%	0
o/w domestic	219.93	219.93	100.0%	0
o/w external	60.91	60.91	100.0%	0
Other recurrent expenditure	486.67	673.02	138.3%	186.35
Development expenditures	1,106.16	1,022.43	92.4%	-83.73
Domestic	238.01	470.46	197.7%	232.44
External	868.14	551.97	63.6%	-316.17
Net lending/repayments	34.12	0.33	1.0%	-33.8
o/w HPP GoU	0	0.33	__	0.33
HPP Exim	34.12	0	0.0%	-34.12
Domestic arrears repayment	33.37	19.43	58.2%	-13.94
Overall fiscal balance	464.07	146.96	__	__

Expenditure

Government spent UShs 2,494.45 billion, which reflects a 104.0% performance against the planned target of UShs 2,398.75 billion for the month of December 2021. Cumulatively, total government spending for the first half of the financial year (July –December 2021) amounted to UShs. 14,702.1 billion less than UShs. 17, 797.4 billion spent during the same period in the previous financial year.

In the month of December 2021, government’s recurrent expenditure was above the target for the month. Total wages and salaries amounted to UShs. 498.4 billion which was UShs. 40.81 billion higher than the target. The increase in wages and salaries was due to additional recruitment in some sectors such as security and health.

Other recurrent expenditures amounted to UShs. 673.0 billion, an equivalent of 138.3% against the programmed target. This performance was mainly on account of additional expenditure towards the health sector as government continues to mitigate the spread of COVID-19 through vaccination and the education sector as schools prepare to resume operations in January 2022.

During the month, government spending towards domestically financed development projects was worth UShs. 470.5 billion, performing above the target by 98%. This performance was mainly due to payments made towards research and development and the energy sector for thermal and small hydro power plants for rural electrification.

On the other hand, disbursements towards externally financed projects amounted to UShs. 552.0 billion performing at only 63.6% against the monthly target.

East African Community Developments

EAC Inflation¹¹

Similar to Uganda, annual headline inflation in Tanzania and South Sudan also increased to 4.2% and 13.21 % respectively from 4.1% and -1.02% registered in November 2021. The rise in inflation in Tanzania was mainly driven by an increase in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, housing and utilities. As for Rwanda, annual headline inflation was recorded at minus 2.0% in December 2021 from minus 3.4% recorded in November 2021 reflecting a slowdown in the rate at which prices were decreasing.

EAC Exchange Rates

During December 2021, all selected currencies under the EAC depreciated against the US Dollar. The Tanzanian and Kenyan Shs depreciated by 0.1% and 0.9% respectively while the Rwandan and Burundian francs depreciated by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. This movement was mainly on account of global strengthening of the US Dollar.

Trade Balance with the EAC

In November 2021, Uganda traded at a surplus worth USD 31.39 million with the EAC compared to the USD 18.08 million surplus registered in October 2021. This movement was mainly driven by an increase in export receipts which more than offset the increase in the import bill over the same period.

On a country specific level, Uganda traded at a surplus with South Sudan (USD 50.44 million) and Burundi (USD 5.46 million) while she traded at a deficit with Tanzania (USD 12.73 million), Kenya (USD 11.48 million) and Rwanda (USD 0.3 million). Kenya remained Uganda’s largest trading partner within the EAC during the month.

Glossary

Term	Description
Bid to cover ratio	This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI	The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA	CIEA (Composite Index of Economic Activity) is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation	This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation	This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan	This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor	This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI	The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM)	Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data comes with a month’s lag.↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts using previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
The import volume index increased from 205.82 in October 2021 to 234.21 in November 2021 (Source: BOU)↩︎
Fiscal data for December 2021 is not final and will change↩︎
Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎

December 2021

Performance of the Economy Report

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

2022-01-21