November 2021
Performance of the Economy Report
Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
2021-12-22
List of Acronyms
| Acronym | Expansion | |
|---|---|---|
| BTI | Business Tendency Index | |
| BOU | Bank of Uganda | |
| B.Franc | Burundian Franc | |
| CIEA | Composite Index of Economic Activity | |
| EAC | East African Community | |
| EFU | Energy, Fuels and Utilities | |
| FX | Foreign currency | |
| FY | Financial Year | |
| HIPC | Heavily Indebted Poor Countries | |
| HPP | Hydro Power Plant | |
| ICBT | Informal Cross Border Trade | |
| KShs | Kenyan Shilling | |
| MDAs | Ministries, Departments and Agencies | |
| MOFPED | Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development | |
| NGO | Non-Government Organisation | |
| PAYE | Pay as You Earn | |
| PMI | Purchasing Managers Index | |
| PSC | Private Sector Credit | |
| R.Franc | Rwandese Franc | |
| SOPs | Standard Operating Procedures | |
| T-Bills | Treasury Bills | |
| T-Bonds | Treasury Bonds | |
| TShs | Tanzanian Shilling | |
| UAE | United Arab Emirates | |
| UBOS | Uganda Bureau of Statistics | |
| UShs | Ugandan Shilling | |
| US$ / USD | United States Dollar | |
| VAT | Value Added Tax |
Summary1
Real Sector
Economic Activity continued to improve following the gradual easing of COVID-19 pandemic related restrictions since July. This is shown by a monthly increase of 1.2% in the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) in October 2021.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) remained above 50 in November, 2021 further signaling improved economic activity as all monitored sectors registered an increase in output and new orders. The PMI was recorded at 54.1 in November 2021.
The business sentiments also remained positive as indicated by the Business Tendency Index (BTI) that increased to 51.85 in November 2021 from 51.16 recorded the previous month.
Annual headline inflation increased to 2.6% in November 2021 from 1.9% the previous month as prices for a number of items like food, fuel, transport and health services faced upward pressures during the month. The increase in domestic prices were also affected by the surge in global oil prices.
Financial Sector
The Ugandan Shilling strengthened against the US Dollar by 0.8% in November 2021, registering an average mid-rate of UShs 3551.5/USD. Steady dollar inflows from offshore investors and NGO’s during the month outmatched the limited corporate demand thus appreciating the Shilling.
Government raised a total of UShs 846.80 billion from three auctions of treasury instruments held in November 2021. Of the total amount raised, UShs 493.49 billion was used to refinance maturing securities while UShs 353.31 billion was used for financing other items in the Government budget.
Annualized yields (interest rates) on treasury bills registered mixed movements with the yield for the most demanded 91-day tenor bill declining to 6.69% in November, 2021 from 6.80% recorded the previous month. On the other hand, the interest rates for the 182 and 364 day tenors increased to 8.79% and 10.58% in November 2021 from 8.55% and 10.08% respectively.
Commercial banks’ lending rates on Shilling denominated credit continued on an upward trend increasing to a weighted average of 19.66% in October 2021 from 19.05% in September. The upward trend in the lending rates can partly be explained by increased risk aversiveness among commercial banks.
As commercial banks continue to be risk averse, the value of loans approved in October 2021 declined to UShs 869.3 billion from UShs 1068.5 billion approved the previous Month. This also follows the expiry of the credit relief measures that the Central Bank had earlier put in place to help stressed borrowers cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.The expiry of these measures would result in an increase in Non-Performing Loans thus increasing the provision requirement for commercial banks.
External Sector
Uganda’s merchandise trade with the rest of the world resulted in a lower deficit of USD 222.94 million in October 2021 from USD 227.12 million recorded the previous month. The lower deficit follows a decrease in the import bill.
Export receipts increased marginally to USD 288.57 million in October 2021 from USD 287.27 million in September 2021 on account of tea, fish and oil re-exports. On the other hand, merchandise imports dropped by 0.6% from USD 514.38 million in September 2021 to USD 511.51 million in October 2021 due to a decline in Government imports.
Uganda traded at a surplus with the EAC, European Union and the Rest of Africa: but at a deficit with Asia and the Middle East. Uganda used to trade at a surplus with the Middle East until the holding back of gold exportation to the region since July, 2021.
Fiscal Sector
Government operations in November, 2021 resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of UShs 724.46 billion which was higher than the planned deficit of UShs 654.00 billion as domestic revenues were lower than anticipated.
Domestic revenue collections were below target partly due to delays and difficulties in implementation of the new tax measures like the Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing System (EFRIS) and the digital tracking system. Domestic revenue collections for November 2021 amounted to UShs 1,688.09 billion, registering a shortfall of UShs 52.18 billion against the target for the month.
Government expenditure in November 2021 amounted to UShs 2,497.15 billion, against the plan of UShs 2,568.35 billion for the month. The lower than planned spending was mainly on account of lower spending on externally financed projects recorded during the month.
East African Community
A decline in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages in Kenya and Rwanda continued to drive inflation in both countries on a downward trend in November 2021. On the other hand, domestic prices in Tanzania and Uganda faced upward pressures resulting in higher inflation values of 4.1% and 2.6% respectively during the month.
The Tanzanian and Ugandan Shillings appreciated against the US Dollar by 0.1% and 0.8% respectively in November 2021 while the Burundian Franc, Kenyan Shilling and Rwandese Franc faced depreciation pressures.
Uganda’s trade with the EAC resulted in a merchandise trade surplus of USD 20.25 million in October 2021, a turnaround from a deficit of USD 40.80 million in October 2020. This development was attributed to a fall in the import bill following a decline in the imports of mineral products, and an increase in export receipts.
Real Sector Developments
Inflation
Annual headline inflation increased to 2.6% in November 2021 from 1.9% the previous month. Prices went up across all its three components i.e Food crops and related items; Energy, Fuel and Utilities (EFU); and Core, compared to the same month a year ago.
Annual Core inflation went up from 2.1% in October to 2.6% in November 2021 mainly driven by an increase in the cost of Health services, transport services, as well as cooking oil and sugar.
Annual inflation for Food crops and related items increased to 3.6% in November from 1.7% the previous month due to price increases for vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses’. Particularly, prices went up for matooke, avocados, carrots, cassava and chicken kroilers in November 2021 compared to the same month a year ago.
Energy, Fuels and Utilities (EFU) inflation experienced upward pressures mainly emanating from higher prices for diesel, petrol and liquefied gas (propane) in the month of November compared to the previous month. Particularly, the pump prices per litre of diesel and petrol went up by 3.7% from an average of UShs 3808 in October to UShs 3950 in November and 3.3% from an average of UShs 4219 to UShs 4358 over the same period, respectively. Compared to November 2020, the pump prices for diesel & petrol increased by 15.7% and 12.5% respectively despite the appreciation of the Ugandan Shilling. This increase in fuel prices is not unique to Uganda as it follows an increase in the international oil price.
As shown in figure 3, global oil prices have been on an upward trend since the start of this year climbing from an average of USD 49.7 per barrel of Brent Crude oil in December 2020 to USD 81.95 in November 2021. The continued increase in international oil prices results from increased consumer demand, as economies recover amidst supply-side and disruptions.
Economic Activity
The CIEA showed improved economic performance following the gradual easing of lockdown measures. The CIEA grew by 1.2% from 145.29 in September to 147.06 in October 2021, the highest level recorded in the twelve months period as shown in figure 4.
The headline PMI registered a value of 54.1 in November, slightly down from 54.6 in October. The PMI, being above 50, continued to depict improvement in business conditions. All five monitored sectors i.e. agriculture, industry, construction, wholesale and retail and service sectors saw output and new orders increase during the month. In addition, there was improvement in employment levels during the month.
Business Perceptions
Perceptions about doing business remained optimistic as reflected by the Business Tendency Index that remained above 50 as shown in Figure 5. The BTI rose slightly to 51.85 in November, from 51.16 recorded the previous month signaling an improving outlook. The improvement was on account of increased optimism in key sectors like construction, manufacturing, agriculture and wholesale trade.
Financial Sector Developments
Exchange Rate Movements
The Ugandan Shilling strengthened against the US Dollar by 0.8% to an average mid-rate of UShs 3551.5/USD in November 2021 from UShs 3579.9/USD recorded in the previous month. There was limited corporate demand for the dollar versus the steady inflows from offshore investors and NGO’s thus strengthening the shilling.
As shown in Figure 7, the Ugandan Shilling also appreciated against the Euro and the Pound Sterling in November, 2021.
Interest Rate Movements
In November 2021, Bank of Uganda maintained the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 6.5%, its lowest level since inception. With inflation projected to remain well within the upper bound for the foreseeable future, monetary policy continues to remain accomodative as a measure to support economic recovery.
Lending Rates2
Commercial banks’ Shilling denominated lending rates continued on an upward trend in October, increasing to a weighted average of 19.66% from 19.05% in September. This movement is partly explained by increased risk aversiveness among the commercial banks following the expiry of the credit relief measures that the Central Bank had earlier put in place to help stressed borrowers cope with the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These measures allowed for; - suspension or reduction on repayment of principal and/or interest, applicable to the outstanding principal loan amounts; extension of the loan repayment period; Reduction of interest rate on the loans; and other forms of loan rearrangement provided for under the Bank regulations. Expiry of these measures would result in a rise in NPLs thus increasing the provisioning requirement for commercial banks. The measures expired on 30th September 2021 save for the borrowers in the education and hospitality sectors, which remain under full and/or partial lockdown.
On the other hand, foreign currency lending rates decreased from a weighted average of 6.99% to 5.56% over the same period.
Government Securities
During the month, Government held three auctions of treasury instruments, from which a sum of UShs 846.80 billion (at cost) was raised. Of the total amount raised, UShs 395.25 billion was from T-Bills and UShs 451.54 billion was from T-bonds. Securities worth UShs 493.49 billion matured and were refinanced; while UShs 353.31 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget as shown in Table 2.
| Total Issuances | Financing other items in the Government budget | Refinancing | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2021/22 | 3,318.19 | 1,593.95 | 1,724.24 |
| October 2021 | 884.05 | 96 | 788.06 |
| November 2021 | 846.8 | 353.31 | 493.49 |
| FY 2021/22 to date | 5,049.04 | 2,043.25 | 3,005.78 |
Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills
Yields (interest rates) on treasury bills during November decreased for the 91-day tenor, but increased for the 182 and 364-day tenors. The annualised yields for November were 6.69%, 8.79% and 10.58% for the 91-, 182- and 364-day tenors, respectively. This compares with 6.80%, 8.55% and 10.08% in October 2021. The increase in yields was partly on account of market expectations of additional Government borrowing request during the month.
Demand was the highest for the 91-day tenor, which recorded a bid to cover ratio of 2.5, compared to 1.57 and 1.42 for the 364-day and 182-day tenors, respectively.
Yields on Treasury Bonds3
During the month, Government reopened two T-Bond instruments, i.e. 5-year and 20-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on the 5-year tenor decreased to 13.00% in October compared to 13.41% for a similar instrument in July 2021. Similarly, the rate on the 20-year tenor decreased to 15.50% in October from 15.95% in July 2021.
Outstanding Private Sector Credit4
The stock of outstanding private sector credit increased by 0.8% to UShs 18,586.07 Billion in October from UShs 18,445.95 Billion the previous month. This compares with the growth of 0.2% the previous month.
Credit Extensions5
The value of loans approved in October declined to UShs 869.3 Billion from UShs 1068.5 Billion approved the previous Month. This accounted for 53.4% of the value of loan requests received in the month compared to an approval rate 55.8% the previous month. Lending remains affected by the continued uncertainty due to the lingering effects of the Covid-19 related restrictive measures on economic activity and the expiry of the credit relief measures enacted by the Central Bank.
Personal Loans and Household loans continued to take the largest share of credit approved in October 2021 at 26.9%, followed by trade (23.0%), Agriculture (14.1%), Manufacturing (12.4%) and Building, Construction and Real Estate (10.6%) as shown in Figure 15. These sectors together accounted for 87% of the credit approved for disbursement during the month.
External Sector Developments
Merchandise Trade Balance6
The merchandise trade deficit narrowed both on a monthly and annual basis. The deficit reduced to USD 222.94 million in October 2021 from USD 227.12 million recorded the previous month, following a decrease in the import bill and an increase in the export receipts. While export receipts registered a slight increase in October, exports have been generally flat since July as shown in Figure 19, as traders continue to hold back the exportation of gold.
Compared to the same month last year, the deficit narrowed by 0.9% from USD 225.00 million to USD 222.94 million in October 2021. This was explained by a higher decrease in the import bill that more than offset the decline in export receipts.
Merchandise Exports
During October 2021, export receipts increased marginally from USD 287.27 million in September 2021 to USD 288.57 million. A decline in receipts for most exports was more than offset by strong performance of tea, fish and oil re-exports, leading to the marginal increase in total export receipts.
| Product | Oct-2020 | Sep-2021 | Oct-2021 |
Oct-2021 vs Oct-2020 % Change |
Oct-2021 vs Sep-2021 % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Exports | 396.31 | 287.27 | 288.57 | -27.19 | 0.45 |
| Coffee | |||||
| Value Exported | 38.61 | 66.62 | 61.43 | 59.13 | -7.78 |
| Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) | 0.43 | 0.59 | 0.49 | 13.67 | -16.91 |
| Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 39.99 | 10.99 |
| Non-Coffee Formal Exports | 324.15 | 172.83 | 178.71 | -44.87 | 3.4 |
| of which:- | |||||
| Mineral Products (Gold) | 165.7 | 0 | 0 | -100 | NaN |
| Cotton | 5.99 | 0.58 | 0.57 | -90.53 | -2.04 |
| Tea | 7.59 | 5.85 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 41.87 |
| Tobacco | 3.15 | 6.15 | 4.41 | 39.96 | -28.24 |
| Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) | 12.65 | 8.46 | 11.4 | -9.85 | 34.84 |
| Oil Re-Exports | 7.01 | 8.65 | 10.78 | 53.77 | 24.64 |
| Base Metals & Products | 11.04 | 12.58 | 12.59 | 14.04 | 0.04 |
| Maize | 6.23 | 3.35 | 1.79 | -71.34 | -46.66 |
| Beans | 4.59 | 8.48 | 7.11 | 54.97 | -16.24 |
| Flowers | 4.16 | 5.54 | 4.58 | 10.17 | -17.26 |
| ICBT Exports | 33.55 | 47.82 | 48.42 | 44.32 | 1.26 |
Comparison between October 2021 and October 2020 shows a 27.2% decline in export receipts largely due to no exportation of Gold in October 2021. Uganda has not exported any Gold since July 2021 following the imposition a levy of 5% on every kilogram of processed gold and 10% on unprocessed minerals exported out of Uganda. Government and players in the gold industry are still having negotiations to have this tax revised downwards.
Destination of Exports7
The East African Community (EAC) remained the main destination for Uganda’s exports. Exports to the EAC increased from USD 109.72 million in September 2021 to USD 116.83 million in October 2021, representing 40.5% of the total. The Rest of Africa and the European Union followed at 27.1% and 19.6% respectively as shown in Figure 19.
Merchandise Imports8
Merchandise worth USD 511.51 million was imported in October 2021 which was lower than the USD 514.38 million in September. The decline was mainly due to a drop in Government imports that more than offset the increment in private sector imports. The value of merchandise imported by the private sector increased by 2.2% mainly due to an increase in import prices as global oil prices continued to rise. On the other hand, import volumes declined by 2.1% thus affecting revenues from import duties for the month under review.
Compared to the same period the previous year, the value of imports declined by 17.7% mainly due to the reduced importation of gold since the beginning of the financial year.
Asia remained the biggest source of merchandise imported in October 2021, accounting for 44.2% of the total imports, respectively. Merchandise imported from the Middle East and EAC contributed 20.9% and 18.9% of the total imports, making them the second and third largest sources of imports as shown in Figure 22. Within the EAC, Tanzania and Kenya accounted for the largest share of imports at 76.7% and 21.8% respectively.
Trade Balance by Region
Similar to the previous month, Uganda traded at a surplus with the EAC (USD 20.25 million), European Union (USD 17.99 million) and the Rest of Africa (USD 59.38 million) in October, 2021. Uganda continued to trade at a deficit with Asia (USD 209.32 million) and the middle East (USD 99.76 million). Uganda’s trade with the Middle East remained subdued because of the reduced exportation of gold products to the region.
| Region | Oct 2020 | Sep 2021 | Oct 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East | 99.61 | -91.6 | -99.76 |
| Asia | -201.5 | -206.97 | -209.32 |
| EAC | -40.8 | 15.36 | 20.25 |
| Rest of Africa | -65.3 | 68.29 | 59.38 |
Fiscal Developments
Preliminary data shows that government operations in November 2021 resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of UShs 724.46 billion which was higher than the planned deficit of UShs 654.00 billion. This was on account of lower than targeted domestic revenue and grants during the month. See table 5 below;
Revenue and Grants
Revenue and grants for the month amounted to UShs 1,772.69 billion against a combined target of UShs 1,914.34 billion. Both categories recorded shortfalls of UShs 52.18 billion and UShs 89.47 billion respectively.
Domestic Revenues
Domestic revenue collections for November 2021 amounted to UShs 1,688.09 billion, representing a 97.0% performance (UShs 52.18 billion shortfall) against the target for the month. Due to the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and delays in implementation of some of the planned tax measures for the financial year, both tax and non-tax revenue collections during the month were short of their respective targets.
Tax revenue collections in November 2021 amounted to UShs 1,582.08 billion, registering a UShs 27.75 billion shortfall against the planned target of UShs 1,609.83 billion. The shortfall was mainly registered under the category of indirect taxes which more than offset the surplus registered in international tax collections.
Indirect domestic tax collections amounted to UShs 384.22 billion, which translated into an 83.2% performance (UShs 77.44 billion shortfall) as both Value Added Tax (VAT) and Excise duty were below respective targets by UShs 55.89 billion and UShs 21.54 billion. Performance under VAT was mainly affected by lower than anticipated production of spirits, soft drinks, beer and cement during the month. Additionally, continued challenges regarding effective implementation and enforcement of Electronic Fiscal Receipting and Invoicing System (EFRIS) resulted in lower than anticipated VAT collections. Similarly, difficulties in effectively enforcing the digital tracking system led to shortfalls under excise duty,which were exacerbated by lower than anticipated consumption of mainly spirits, beer and internet data as the pace of economic recovery was slower than earlier anticipated.
Direct domestic tax collections amounted to UShs 470.10 billion against the planned UShs 470.48 billion for the month. Shortfalls were registered under Corporate tax, Withholding tax and rental income tax, although these were offset by the UShs 48.06 billion surplus that was registered under PAYE.
On a positive note, taxes on international trade and transactions during the month amounted to UShs 748.09 billion, which translated into a surplus of UShs 37.50 billion against the planned target of UShs 708.60 billion. This performance was mainly on account of surpluses collected under petroleum duty and VAT on imports during the month.
| Shs Billion | Program | Outturn | Performance | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenues and grants | 1,914.34 | 1,772.69 | 92.6% | -141.65 |
| Revenues | 1,740.28 | 1,688.09 | 97.0% | -52.18 |
| Tax | 1,609.83 | 1,582.08 | 98.3% | -27.75 |
| Non-tax | 130.45 | 106.01 | 81.3% | -24.43 |
| Grants | 174.07 | 84.6 | 48.6% | -89.47 |
| o/w Project support | 174.07 | 84.6 | 48.6% | -89.47 |
| Expenditures and lending | 2,568.35 | 2,497.15 | 97.2% | -71.19 |
| Current expenditures | 1,400.38 | 1,526.8 | 109.0% | 126.42 |
| Wages and salaries | 455.18 | 503.79 | 110.7% | 48.61 |
| Interest payments | 326.98 | 326.98 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w domestic | 291.38 | 291.38 | 100.0% | 0 |
| o/w external | 35.6 | 35.6 | 100.0% | 0 |
| Other recurrent expenditure | 618.22 | 696.03 | 112.6% | 77.81 |
| Development expenditures | 1,125.7 | 910.22 | 80.9% | -215.48 |
| Domestic | 462.59 | 599.38 | 129.6% | 136.78 |
| External | 663.11 | 310.84 | 46.9% | -352.27 |
| Net lending/repayments | 0 | 40.01 | __ | 40.01 |
| o/w HPP GoU | 0 | 40.01 | __ | 40.01 |
| HPP Exim | 0 | 0 | __ | 0 |
| Domestic arrears repayment | 42.26 | 20.12 | 47.6% | -22.14 |
| Overall fiscal balance | -654 | -724.46 | __ | __ |
Expenditure
Government expenditure in November 2021 amounted to UShs 2,497.15 billion, representing a 97.2% performance against the plan of UShs 2,568.35 billion for the month. This performance was mainly on account of lower than planned spending under externally financed development activities during the month.
Development expenditure for the month amounted to UShs 910.22 billion, representing an 80.9% performance against the planned UShs 1,125.70 billion. Whereas expenditure on domestically financed development items was higher than the plan for the month by 29.6%, spending on externally financed projects was very low, at only 46.9% of the plan for the month which resulted in underperformance for the category of development expenditure. However, performance of the external development budget is tied to the disbursement of funds by external development partners and therefore do not necessarily reflect the physical progress of projects. For some of the projects, funds are disbursed after agreed work milestones have been completed.
Expenditure on recurrent items, on the other hand, was higher than the plan for the month by 9.0% as both wage and non-wage (other recurrent) categories performed at over 100%. Wages and salaries amounted to UShs 503.79 billion against the earlier planned UShs 455.18 billion mainly on account of additional recruitment under the health sector, Uganda Police and Uganda Prisons. Spending on other non-wage recurrent items totaled to UShs 696.03 billion, 12.6% higher than the initial plan. This performance was mainly on account of;- higher spending under Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Education and National Medical Stores to deal with the negative impact of COVID-19 on the affected sectors e.g education, health and security during the month.
East African Community Developments
EAC Inflation9
Kenya’s Annual Headline Inflation continued on a downward trend reducing to 5.80% in November from 6.45% the previous month, mainly driven by a slowdown in prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
On the other hand, Tanzania’s Annual Headline Inflation slightly increased to 4.1% from 4.0% the previous month, its highest level since February 2018. This movement was mainly driven by higher prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, transport, housing and utilities, clothing and footwear as well as restaurants and hotels.
Consumer prices in Rwanda fell by 3.4% year-on-year in November of 2021, following a 3.3% decrease the previous month, marking the fifth consecutive month of deflation and the steepest fall in consumer prices since October of 2018. The main downward pressure arose from a more significant fall in prices for food & non-alcoholic beverages, specifically vegetables.
EAC Exchange Rates
Tanzania’s currency marginally appreciated against the US Dollar by 0.1% during the month under review. On the other hand, the Burundian Franc, Kenyan Shilling and Rwandese Franc depreciated by 0.2%, 1.0% and 0.4% respectively against the US Dollar.
Trade Balance with the EAC
Uganda’s merchandise trade with the EAC resulted in a surplus of USD 20.25 million in October 2021, a turnaround from a deficit of USD 40.80 million in October 2020. This development was attributed to a fall in the import bill following a decline in the imports of mineral products, and an increase in export receipts. During the month, Uganda exported merchandise worth USD 116.83 million, whereas, she imported merchandise worth USD 96.58 million.
Within the EAC bloc, Kenya remains Uganda’s main trading partner despite the existing non-tariff barriers. Uganda recorded a trade deficit with all EAC Partner States save for South Sudan and Burundi.
Glossary
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Bid to cover ratio | This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed. |
| BTI | The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook. |
| CIEA | CIEA (Composite Index of Economic Activity) is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month. |
| Core Inflation | This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items. |
| Headline Inflation | This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year. |
| Non-Performing Loan | This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days. |
| Tenor | This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor. |
| PMI | The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda. |
| Yield to Maturity (YTM) | Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures. |
Online Resources
Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.
The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.
An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.
Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data comes with a month’s lag.↩︎
Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts using previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎