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List of Acronyms


Acronym Expansion
BTI Business Tendency Index
BOU Bank of Uganda
B.Franc Burundian Franc
CIEA Composite Index of Economic Activity
EAC East African Community
EFU Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FX Foreign currency
FY Financial Year
HIPC Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HPP Hydro Power Plant
ICBT Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs Kenyan Shilling
MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED       Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGO Non-Government Organisation
PAYE Pay as You Earn
PMI Purchasing Managers Index
PSC Private Sector Credit
R.Franc Rwandese Franc
SOPs Standard Operating Procedures
T-Bills Treasury Bills
T-Bonds Treasury Bonds
TShs Tanzanian Shilling
UAE United Arab Emirates
UBOS Uganda Bureau of Statistics
UShs Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD United States Dollar
VAT Value Added Tax

Summary1


Real Sector

  • Annual Headline inflation slowed to 1.9% in October 2021 from 2.2% in September 2021, mainly attributed to lower transport costs, prices of fruits and prices of solid fuels particularly charcoal and firewood.

  • The PMI increased to 54.6 in October 2021 from 52.5 in September 2021, an indication of further improvement in business conditions as respondents to the survey reported an increase in both new orders and output.

  • However, economic activity remains subdued as the effects of the second COVID-19 lockdown continue to linger. This is depicted by the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) which continued to reduce to 145.3 in September 2021 from 146.0 in August 2021.

  • Sentiments about future business conditions improved among the business community as reflected by an increase in the BTI to 51.02 in October 2021 from 49.62 the previous month.

Financial Sector

  • The Shilling traded at a period average of UGX 3,579.9/USD in October 2021 compared to UGX 3,530.6/USD in September 2021, posting a depreciation of 1.4%. This was explained by high demand of the US dollar and global strengthening of the US dollar during the month.

  • Government raised Shs 884.05 billion from three auctions of government securities in October 2021. Securities worth Shs 788.06 billion were issued for domestic debt refinancing; while Shs 96.0 billion was raised for financing other activities in the government budget.

  • Yields edged upwards for the 182-day and 364-day tenors but declined for the 91-day tenor. The annualized treasury bill yields for October 2021 were 6.80%, 8.55% and 10.08% for the 91, 182 and 364 day tenors, respectively. This compares with 7.02%, 8.46%, 9.57% in September 2021. The decrease in the yield of the 91-day tenor was partly due to its higher demand.

  • Lending rates charged on Shillings and foreign currency denominated credit increased to weighted averages of 19.05% and 6.99% from 18.29% and 5.75% recorded for the previous month, respectively. This increase was partly explained by heightened risk aversiveness among commercial banks on account of expiry of some credit relief measures during the month.

  • By end September 2021, the total outstanding stock of private sector credit stood at Shs 18,441.4 billion. This was a 0.2% increase from Shs. 18,413.7 billion recorded in August 2021 on account of higher credit extensions for Shillings denominated credit.

External Sector

  • In September 2021, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to USD 215.3 million from USD 238.7 million recorded in August 2021. This was on account of a bigger reduction in the import bill (of USD 26.8 million) which offset the reduction in exports receipts (of USD 3.4 million).

  • Uganda’s export receipts amounted to USD 287.3 million in September 2021, which was lower than the USD 290.7 million recorded in August 2021. This was mainly due to lower coffee export volumes.

  • Uganda’s merchandise imports dropped to USD 502.6 million in September 2021 from USD 529.4 million recorded in August 2021, due to reductions of both private sector and government imports. Private sector imports reduced the most (by USD 15.3 billion) on account of lower imports for; (i) machinery, equipment vehicles & accessories; (ii) chemicals & related products; and (iii) base metals & related products. Government imports were affected by a reduction in project imports of USD 11.5 million.

  • Uganda registered trade surpluses with Rest of Africa (USD 68.79 million); EAC (USD 17.52 million) and European Union (USD 8.97 million) while deficits were recorded with Asia; Middle East; and Rest of Europe.

Fiscal Sector

  • Preliminary data shows that government operations in October 2021 resulted in an overall fiscal deficit of Shs 1,314.91 billion which was lower than the planned deficit of Shs 1,534.45 billion. This was on account of lower than planned expenditure and net lending.

  • Domestic revenue for the month amounted to Shs 1,556.64 billion. This results in a performance of 91.1% or a shortfall of Shs.151.77 billion when compared to the monthly target. There were shortfalls of Shs. 124.28 billion and Shs.27.48 billion recorded for both tax and non-tax categories, respectively.

  • Government expenditure amounted to Shs 2,936.68 billion, reflecting a performance of 86.2% against the planned target of Shs 3,407.26 billion for the month. This was due to the underperformance of externally financed development expenditures.

East African Community

  • There was a general reduction in headline inflation across the EAC region with Uganda, Kenya, and Rwanda all recording slight decreases in inflation while Tanzania’s inflation remained unchanged.

  • With the exception of Tanzania, currencies of selected EAC Partner States depreciated against the US dollar during October 2021. The depreciation of the EAC currencies was partly attributed to the increase in international oil prices that raised dollar demand from local oil importers; and global strengthening of the US dollar.


Real Sector Developments


Inflation

Annual headline inflation slowed to 1.9% in October 2021 from 2.2% recorded in September 2021. This was mainly on account of lower transport costs, lower prices of fruits as well as lower prices of solid fuels. All three subcomponents of headline inflation reduced in the month.

Core inflation marginally declined to 2.1% in October 2021 from 2.2% in September 2021. This was on account of lower transport costs for buses, taxis, and motorcycles in the month compared to October 2020.

Food crops inflation also reduced to 1.7% in October from 3.2% in September 2021. This reduction was largely attributed to lower prices of fruits such as; apples, pineapples, mangoes, bananas and oranges.

Despite an increase in international oil prices which led to higher pump prices on the Ugandan market, there was a reduction in EFU inflation from 0.2% in September 2021 to -0.2% in October 2021. This was driven by a significant reduction in prices of solid fuels i.e. both charcoal and firewood.

Economic Activity

Overall, leading indicators of economic activity suggest an improvement in business conditions following the slowdown created by second COVID-19 lockdown.

The Purchaser Manager’s Index (PMI) in October 2021 improved for the third consecutive month since the partial reopening of the economy from the 2nd Covid-19 lockdown. The PMI increased to 54.6 from 52.5 in September 2021. This signals further improvement in business conditions as respondents to the survey reported an increase in both new orders and output.

Despite the improvement in the level of economic activity following the lifting of the second lockdown restrictions in July 2021, some negative impacts still linger in the economy. This is depicted by the Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) which reduced slightly to 145.3 in September 2021 from 146.0 in August 2021. Specifically, the weak performance of some components used to estimate the CIEA that is; VAT, excise duty, imports and export in September 2021, explain the performance of the index.

Business Perceptions

Sentiments among the business community were optimistic as shown by an increase in the Business Tendency Index (BTI) from 49.62 in September 2021 to 51.02 in October 2021. Optimism was particularly expressed in the agricultural sector.


Financial Sector Developments


Exchange Rate Movements

In October 2021, the Ugandan Shilling lost value against the US dollar. The Shilling depreciated by 1.4% from a period average of UGX 3,530.6/USD UGX in September 2021 to 3,579.9/USD in October 2021.

This marked a shift in direction from the appreciation recorded in each of the last three months. The depreciation was explained by high demand of the US dollar which outmatched its supply. During the month, there was global strengthening of the US dollar, which fed through into the domestic market putting depreciation pressures to the Shilling.

Similarly, the Shilling depreciated against the Pound Sterling by 1.1% in October 2021 whereas an appreciation was recorded against the Euro by 0.1%, when compared to the previous month.

Interest Rate Movements

In October 2021, the Central Bank Rate (CBR) was maintained at 6.5% on account of a relatively low inflation outlook. This accommodative stance was intended to provide stimulus to the economy from the covid-19 impacts.

Lending Rates2

In September 2021, there was an increase in the lending rates when compared to August 2021. Weighted average lending rates charged on the Shillings and foreign currency denominated credit were 19.05% and 6.99% in September compared to 18.29% and 5.75% recorded for the previous month, respectively.

The increase in the rates was partly explained by heightened risk aversiveness among the commercial banks on account of expiry of some credit relief measures.

Government Securities

Government raised Shs 884.05 billion from three auctions of securities in October 2021. Of this, Shs 364.50 billion was in treasury bills while Shs 519.55 billion was in treasury bonds. Shs 788.06 billion of the proceeds was used for domestic debt refinancing; while Shs 96.0 billion was for financing other activities in the government budget.

Breakdown of Government Securities (Shs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Total Issuances Financing other items in the Government budget Refinancing
Q1 2021/22 3,318.19 1,593.95 1,724.24
October 2021 884.06 96 788.06
FY 2021/22 to date 4,202.25 1,689.95 2,512.3

Annualised Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

Yields edged upwards for the 182-day and 364-day tenors but declined for the 91-day tenor. The annualised treasury bill yields for October 2021 were 6.80%, 8.55% and 10.08% for the 91, 182 and 364 day tenors, respectively. This compares with 7.02%, 8.46%, 9.57% in September 2021, respectively.

The decrease in the yield of the 91-day tenor was partly due to higher demand, as its bid to cover ratio (an indicator of demand) increased from 1.94 in September to 3.38 in October 2021.

Yields on Treasury Bonds3

During the month, Government reopened two T-Bond instruments, i.e. 5-year and 20-year tenors. The Yield to Maturity (YTM) on the 5-year tenor decreased to 13.00% in October compared to 13.41% for a similar instrument in July 2021. Similarly, the rate on the 20-year tenor decreased to 15.50% in October from 15.95% in July 2021.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit4

By the end of September 2021, the total outstanding stock of private sector credit stood at Shs 18,441.4 billion. This was an increase (by 0.2%) from Shs. 18,413.7 billion recorded in August 2021.

The increase in stock was on account of higher credit extensions for Shillings denominated credit during the month compared to the month before. Shillings denominated credit stock increased by 0.4% thereby offsetting the reduction of 0.3% in foreign currency denominated credit stock.

Credit Extensions5

During September 2021, credit worth Shs. 1,068.5 billion was disbursed to the private sector by lending institutions. This was an increase of 30.1% compared to Shs. 821.4 billion worth of credit extended the previous month. Of the total value of credit applied for in the month, 55.8% was approved for disbursement to the private sector.

Personal and household loans continued to take the biggest share -accounting for 23.1% of credit extended in September 2021. This was followed by trade (17.9%); building, construction & real estate (16.6%); manufacturing (15.0%); and agriculture (11.0%).


External Sector Developments


Merchandise Trade Balance6

In September 2021, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed both on a monthly and annual basis due to a reduction in the import bill. On a monthly basis, the deficit narrowed by USD 23.4 million to USD 215.3 million in September 2021 from USD 238.7 million recorded in August 2021. There was a significant reduction in the import bill (of USD 26.8 million) which offset the reduction in exports receipts (of USD 3.4 million).

On an annual basis, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed by USD 55.6 million compared to the USD 270.9 million recorded in September 2020. During the month, the import bill fell by USD 210.1 million and offset the fall in exports receipts (of USD154.5 million).

Merchandise Exports

Uganda’s export receipts amounted to USD 287.3 million in September 2021, which represents a slight reduction (of USD 3.4 million) compared to USD 290.7 million in August 2021 due to a drop in coffee export volumes. Coffee export volumes were affected by Arabica coffee as a result of the off-year biennial cycle. However, coffee prices increased due to high international demand given the supply constraints specifically from Brazil arising from adverse weather conditions.

The reduction of coffee export receipts was partly offset by higher receipts from non-coffee exports especially, tea; tobacco; and oil re-exports on account of increases in their export volumes.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) (Source: BoU and MoFPED Calc.)
Product Sep-2020 Aug-2021 Sep-2021 Sep-2021 vs
Sep-2020
% Change
Sep-2021 vs
Aug-2021
% Change
Total Exports 441.78 290.71 287.27 -34.98 -1.18
Coffee
Value Exported 44.64 75.09 66.62 49.25 -11.29
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags) 0.51 0.7 0.59 15.62 -16.46
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee) 1.47 1.79 1.9 29.09 6.2
Non-Coffee Formal Exports 372.16 170.82 172.83 -53.56 1.18
of which:-
Mineral Products 221.73 0 0 -100 NaN
Cotton 1.95 0.37 0.58 -70.37 56.51
Tea 5.63 4.3 5.85 3.92 36.14
Tobacco 2.63 2.69 6.15 133.7 128.64
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) 10.39 9.32 8.46 -18.61 -9.3
Oil Re-Exports 4.74 8.46 8.65 82.37 2.24
Base Metals & Products 7.73 13.32 12.58 62.88 -5.5
Maize 9.65 2.68 3.35 -65.3 24.98
Beans 1.48 8.89 8.48 474.89 -4.54
Flowers 4.59 7.04 5.54 20.7 -21.32
ICBT Exports 24.99 44.8 47.82 91.38 6.74

Compared to September 2020, exports receipts dropped by 35% from USD 441.8 million to USD 287,3 million in September 2021. This was majorly on account of continued non-exportation of gold since the start of the financial year. Gold exports have been affected by the government levy imposed on refined and unrefined gold exports, which has disincentivised exports in the mineral sector.

Destination of Exports7

The EAC was the largest destination of Uganda’s exports in September 2021 accounting for 38% of total exports. This was followed by Rest of Africa at 31.2% and European Union at 17.2%. The improved performance of EAC and Rest of Africa as export destinations is partly attributed to the country’s regional integration efforts.

Notably, exports to the Middle East dropped significantly from USD 225 million in September 2020 to USD 6.7 million mainly on account of a drop in exports of mineral products to the region.

Merchandise Imports8

During September 2021, the total value of merchandise imports was USD 502.6 million. This was a drop from USD 529.4 million recorded in August 2021, with reductions recorded for both private sector and government imports. Private sector imports reduced the most (by USD 15.3 million) on account of lower imports for (i) machinery, equipment, vehicles & accessories; (ii) chemical & related products; and (iii) base metals & related products.

Government imports were affected by project imports which reduced by USD 11.5 million.

Compared to September 2020, the import bill reduced from USD 712.7 million to USD million 502.6 million in September 2021. This was majorly explained by a drop in imports of mineral products (excluding petroleum products).

Despite a reduction compared to August 2021, Asia remained the largest source of Uganda’s imports in September 2021 accounting for 44.2% of total imports. This was followed by Middle East, EAC and European Union at 19.1%, 18.3% and 8.1% respectively, see figure 21.

Trade Balance by Region

During September 2021, Uganda registered trade surpluses with the Rest of Africa (USD 68.79 million); EAC (USD 17.52 million) and European union (USD 8.97 million) while deficits were recorded with Asia; Middle East; Rest of Europe and other countries. The biggest trade deficit was recorded with Asia at USD 201.77 million followed by Middle East at USD 89.34 million. Uganda’s trade balance with Middle East has been largely affected by the cessation of mineral exports since July 2021 when government imposed an export levy on gold exports.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) (Source: BoU)
Region Sep 2020 Aug 2021 Sep 2021
European Union -10.28 -1.59 8.97
Rest of Europe -6.3 0.11 -2.82
Middle East 146.88 -71.67 -89.34
Asia -236.85 -219.91 -201.77
EAC -93.85 28.37 17.52
Rest of Africa -61.21 43.59 68.79
Other Countries -9.3 -17.59 -16.68

Uganda’s trade with Rest of Africa, EAC and European Union improved in September 2021 compared to the same month a year ago and was recorded in surplus. On the contrary, there was a turnaround in trade positions with Middle East from a surplus to a deficit, majorly on account of reduced exports of mineral products to the region.


Fiscal Developments


Preliminary data shows that government operations in October 2021 resulted into an overall fiscal deficit of Shs 1,314.91 billion which was lower than the planned deficit of Shs 1,534.45 billion. This was on account of lower than planned expenditure and net lending. Refer to table 5.

Revenue and Grants

Revenue and grants in October 2021 amounted to Shs 1,621.76 billion against the planned Shs1,872.81 billion for the month. There were shortfalls recorded for both revenues and grants, by Shs 151.77 billion and Shs. 99.28 billion, respectively.

Domestic Revenues

Domestic revenue amounted to Shs 1,556.64 billion, representing a performance of 91.1% (or a shortfall of Shs.151.77 billion) when compared to the monthly target. Shortfalls amounting to Shs. 124.28 billion and Shs. 27.48 billion were recorded for both tax and non-tax categories, respectively. This performance was mainly as a result of the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy and delays in implementation of some planned tax measures for financial year 2021/22.

Tax collections in the month amounted to Shs 1,468.28 billion, representing a shortfall of Shs. 124.28 billion of the monthly target as all the major tax heads that is: - direct taxes, indirect taxes, and taxes on international trade & transactions performed below target.

The biggest shortfall was recorded in indirect taxes (Shs. 88.1 billion) of which VAT accounted for Shs. 74.2 billion or 84%. VAT was mainly affected by lower than anticipated production of beer, spirits, sugar, soft drinks and cement. Excise duty also posted a shortfall of Shs. 13.9billion due to lower than anticipated consumption of spirits, beer, soft drinks and internet data.

Direct tax collections for the month amounted to Shs 422.13 billion, registering a shortfall of Shs 12.01billion. This was mainly on account of lower than planned tax collections for corporate, withholding and rental income. The shortfalls more than offset the surplus collections of Shs 5.60 billion and Shs. 21.07 billion recorded for PAYE and taxes on government securities, respectively.

Tax collections on international trade and transactions amounted Shs 666.11 billion against a planned target of Shs 714.30 billion for the month. This performance was mainly on account of lower than planned collections for import duty.

Non-tax collections amounted to Shs 88.36 billion against a planned target of Shs 115.84 billion, thus posting a performance of 76.3% of the monthly target, and continue to be affected by restrictions on operations of MDAs.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations October 2021 (Shs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Shs Billion Program Outturn Performance Deviation
Revenues and grants 1,872.81 1,621.76 86.6% -251.05
      Revenues 1,708.41 1,556.64 91.1% -151.77
            Tax 1,592.56 1,468.28 92.2% -124.28
            Non-tax 115.84 88.36 76.3% -27.48
      Grants 164.41 65.12 39.6% -99.28
                  o/w Project support 164.41 65.12 39.6% -99.28
Expenditures and lending 3,407.26 2,936.68 86.2% -470.58
      Current expenditures 1,786.58 1,831.34 102.5% 44.77
            Wages and salaries 469.37 503.48 107.3% 34.11
            Interest payments 345.64 345.64 100.0% 0
                  o/w domestic 292.79 292.79 100.0% 0
                  o/w external 52.85 52.85 100.0% 0
            Other recurrent expenditure 971.57 982.22 101.1% 10.66
      Development expenditures 1,568.94 960.53 61.2% -608.4
            Domestic 904 776.67 85.9% -127.33
            External 664.93 183.86 27.7% -481.08
      Net lending/repayments 0 0 __ 0
                  o/w HPP GoU 0 0 __ 0
      HPP Exim 0 0 __ 0
      Domestic arrears repayment 51.75 144.8 279.8% 93.05
Overall fiscal balance -1,534.45 -1,314.91 __ __

Expenditure

During the month, government expenditure amounted to Shs 2,936.68 billion, which reflects a performance of 86.2% against the monthly planned target of Shs 3,407.26 billion. This was attributed to the underperformance of externally financed spending on development activities.

Development expenditures amounted to Shs 960.53 billion which translates into a performance of 61.2% against the planned spending levels as both domestically and externally funded development activities underperformed. Domestically financed development expenditure was affected by the downward revision of the budget due to anticipated revenue shortfalls during the financial year, while externally financed development expenditure was affected by low disbursements due to absorption challenges among MDA’s.

On the other hand, wages and salaries payments were worth Shs. 503 billion, exceeding the monthly target by Shs. 34.1billion. This was mainly due to additional recruitments in the health sector and Uganda Police during the month.


East Africa Community Developments


EAC Inflation9

With the exception of Tanzania, there was a general reduction in annual headline inflation across the EAC region during the month of October 2021. Tanzania’s inflation remained unchanged.

In spite of a decline, Kenya’s inflation remained highest at 6.45% driven by relatively higher prices of food when compared to the same month a year ago, while Rwanda recorded the lowest inflation at -3.3%. A decline in transportation costs and food prices that followed a bumper harvest for some of the agricultural produce contributed to the low inflation levels in Rwanda.

EAC Exchange Rates

With the exception of Tanzania, currencies of selected EAC Partner States depreciated against the US dollar during October 2021. The Ugandan Shilling depreciated the most by 1.4% followed by the Kenyan Shilling (0.7%), Rwandese Franc (0.5%) and lastly the Burundi Franc (0.2%). The depreciations were partly attributed to the increase in international oil prices that raised dollar demand from local oil importers; and global strengthening of the US dollar. On the contrary, the Tanzanian Shilling appreciated by 0.2% in the month.

Trade Balance with the EAC

Uganda continued to trade at a surplus with the East African Community in September 2021. A surplus of USD 17.52 million was recorded in September 2021 following a USD 28.37 million surplus in August 2021. Overall exports receipts from the region increased to USD 109.72 million from USD 108.36 million in the previous month.

Kenya remained Uganda’s biggest trading partner within the EAC. At country specific level, Uganda traded at deficits with Kenya, Tanzania; and Rwanda while surpluses were recorded with Burundi and South Sudan.


Glossary


Term Description
Bid to cover ratio This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA CIEA (Composite Index of Economic Activity) is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI The PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM) Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources


Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.


The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.


An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.


  1. Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎

  2. Data comes with a month’s lag.↩︎

  3. Reopening a bond instrument refers to issuing additional amounts using previously issued bond instrument. The reopened instrument has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate, as the original instrument, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.↩︎

  4. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  5. Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎

  6. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  7. Other Countries include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎

  8. Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎

  9. Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎