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List of Acronyms

Acronym		Expansion
BTI		Business Tendency Index
BOU		Bank of Uganda
B.Franc		Burundian Franc
CIEA		Composite Index of Economic Activity
EAC		East African Community
EFU		Energy, Fuels and Utilities
FX		Foreign currency
FY		Financial Year
HIPC		Heavily Indebted Poor Countries
HPP		Hydro Power Plant
ICBT		Informal Cross Border Trade
KShs		Kenyan Shilling
MDAs		Ministries, Departments and Agencies
MOFPED		Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
NGO		Non-Government Organisation
PAYE		Pay as You Earn
PMI		Purchasing Managers Index
PSC		Private Sector Credit
R.Franc		Rwandese Franc
SOPs		Standard Operating Procedures
T-Bills		Treasury Bills
T-Bonds		Treasury Bonds
TShs		Tanzanian Shilling
UAE		United Arab Emirates
UShs		Ugandan Shilling
US$ / USD		United States Dollar
UBOS		Uganda Bureau of Statistics
VAT		Value Added Tax

Summary¹

Lockdown and impact on the economy

The Covid-19 pandemic continues to have a significant bearing on the economy. The lockdown measures announced during the second half of June 2021 to curb the resurgence in infections extended through July 2021, with movements restricted and majority of businesses remaining closed. The lockdown affected the level of economic activity with adverse effects experienced by sectors that remained in full lockdown like education and transport (except for cargo transport). Other sectors which were also severely affected are the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) as well as hotel and accommodation.
The weak pace of economic activity in July 2021 is expected to affect real GDP growth for the first quarter of FY 2021/22. However, given Government interventions through the capitalization of the SME recovery fund, boosting the Emyooga funds and the on-going vaccination efforts, the impact on the overall GDP is expected to be less severe. The economy remains on course to achieve a growth rate of between 3.5% to 4.0% during FY 2021/22.

Real Sector

The high frequency indicators of economic activity show that the pace of economic activity slowed down following the second lockdown announced in June 2021. The Composite Index of Economic Activity (CIEA) indicated that the economy grew by only 0.7 percent in June 2021 compared to growth rates of above 1 percent between Feb and April 2021.
The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) remained below the 50-mark threshold in June and July 2021. The survey indicated a decline in new orders, output and employment during the period, with education, transport, hotels & accommodation, as the most affected sectors.
Sentiments about the business environment were pessimistic for the second consecutive month. The sectors reporting more pessimism included construction, manufacturing, and agriculture.
Annual headline inflation slightly increased to 2.1 percent in July 2021, from 2.0 percent in June 2021, mainly due to higher food prices, in particular green vegetables, matooke, plantains, pumpkins, and tomatoes. On the hand, the prices of energy and fuels remained lower while the increase in prices of non-food related goods and services slowed during the month.

Financial Sector

The Uganda Shilling depreciated by 0.3 percent against the US Dollar, on account of stronger demand from oil and manufacturing sectors. The Shilling traded at an average midrate of Shs. 3,552/USD in July, compared to Shs. 3,540/USD the previous month.
Average lending rates for Shilling denominated credit decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 17.0 percent in June, 2021 from 19.8 percent in May, 2021. Similarly, the rates on foreign currency denominated credit reduced to 6.0 percent from 6.8 percent over the same period.
During the month, there were 2 T-Bill auctions and one T-Bond auction in the primary domestic securities market. Shs 1,019.84 billion (at cost) was raised, of which Shs 688.28 billion was issued for the refinancing of maturing domestic debt whereas Shs 331.56 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget.
The annualized yields (interest rates) on the 91-day and 364-day tenors increased whereas the 182-day tenor recorded a decline in its yield. The annualized yields for July were 7.40 percent, 9.20 percent and 10.25 percent for the 91,182 and 364-day tenors respectively.
The stock of private sector credit increased by 2.2 percent to Shs. 18,187.9 billion from Shs. 17,792.2 billion in May 2021, mainly due to recovery in the economic activity before the second lockdown, increase in credit extended to prime borrowers such as telecommunication companies and the reduction in the Central Bank Rate overtime.

External Sector

Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit widened by 135.6 percent to USD 481.8 million in June 2021 from USD 204.5 million in June 2020 due to a higher increase in the import bill which offset the rise in export earnings.
Compared to June 2020, the value of imports increased to USD 933.6 million from USD 542.6 million in June 2020. This was due to a rise in both Government and private sector imports. There was an increase in imports of chemical & related products; machinery, equipment, vehicles &accessories; plastics, rubber &related products; and petroleum products.
Export receipts increased by 33.6 percent from USD 338.1 million in June 2020 to USD 451.7 million in June 2021 mainly due to an increase in coffee, minerals, cotton, tea, tobacco, beans, simsim and flowers exports. Coffee exports grew by 46.4% during the period due to higher export volumes.
During the month of June 2021, Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for the Middle East and European Union; which traded at surpluses of USD 91.9 million and USD 2.2 million, respectively.

Fiscal Sector

Preliminary data shows that Government operations in July 2021 resulted into a deficit worth Shs 1,227.79 billion which was higher than the planned deficit of Shs 935.85 billion, on account of revenue shortfalls and higher than planned spending during the month.
Government revenue collections amounted to Shs 1,384.02 billion in July 2021, representing 90.6 percent performance against the planned target. Of this, Shs 1,344.39 billion was tax revenues while Shs 39.64 billion was non-tax revenues.
Government expenditure amounted to Shs 2,661.81 billion representing 103.0 percent performance against the planned spending level. Recurrent expenditure was higher than planned arising out of the need to provide additional resources to support the health sector as well as to provide for cash relief to most vulnerable sections of the population affected by the lockdown.

East African Community

Except for Rwanda, inflation within selected EAC Partner States was on an upward trend. Kenya and Tanzania’s annual headline inflation increased to 6.4 percent and 3.8 percent respectively, in July 2021 from 6.3 percent and 3.6 percent respectively, in June 2021. This was mainly due to higher prices for housing and utilities in these two countries. On the other hand, Rwanda’s inflation decreased to -1.1 percent in July 2021 from to 0.1 percent the previous month, largely due to a reduction in prices for food and non-food beverages; and transport.
The Kenyan Shilling, Rwandese and Burundian Francs all depreciated by 0.3 percent whereas the value of the Tanzanian Shilling remained largely unchanged against the US Dollar.
Uganda’s trade with the EAC resulted in a deficit of USD 91.7 million in June 2021, higher than the deficit of USD 85.6 million recorded in June 2020. This was largely attributed to an increase in imports from Tanzania by 78.6 percent to USD 125.1 million from USD 70.1 million.

Real Sector Developments

Inflation

Annual headline inflation slightly increased to 2.1 percent in July 2021, from 2.0 percent in June 2021, as increases in food prices more than offset the decline in prices of other goods and utilities.

Annual food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation increased to 0.9 percent in July from minus 2.8 percent in June 2021. This was the first time that the rate of price change for food and non-alcoholic beverages was positive since May 2020 and was attributed to higher prices of green vegetables, matooke, plantains, pumpkins, and tomatoes during this period. The increase in prices of food was largely due to the travel restrictions which affected the transportation of food items to the markets.

On the other hand, annual core inflation declined to 2.5 percent from 2.7 percent recorded in June 2021, on account of lower prices for hotel and lodging accommodation, car spare parts and accessories, and communication charges (internet and data fees).

The annual EFU inflation remained negative, for the tenth consecutive month, and was recorded at -0.9 percent in July 2021. This development is largely due to the lowering of prices of liquid gas, charcoal and kerosene.

Economic Activity

Economic activity dampened during the month because of the lockdown restrictions, which were imposed to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indication of dampening economic activity was picked-up in June 2021 by one of the frequent indicators used to gauge the pace of economic activities. The CIEA recorded a 0.7 percent increase from 145 in May 2021 to 146 in June 2021, which was slower compared to the previous increases of above 1 percent between Feb and April 2021.

The slow-down was also reflected in the performance of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which remained below the 50-mark threshold for both June and July 2021. According to the responses from the survey, most businesses reported a decline in new orders, output and employment during the period. The sectors which have been severely affected are the ones which were in full lockdown such as education, transport (except cargo), among others.

Economic Perceptions

Similarly, sentiments about the business environment remained pessimistic as reflected by the BTI remaining below the 50-mark threshold, for a second consecutive month. The BTI fell to 47.6 in July from 49.2 in June 2021. Sentiments by business executives were more pessimistic especially in construction, manufacturing and agriculture sectors during the month compared to June 2021. Although these sectors were allowed to operate with restrictions, some opted to operate at below-capacity due to low aggregate demand amidst a lockdown.

Financial Sector Developments

Exchange Rate Movements

In the foreign exchange market, the Uganda Shilling depreciated by 0.3 percent against the US Dollar, trading at an average midrate of Shs. 3,552/USD in July 2021 compared to Shs. 3,540/USD the previous month. The depreciation was attributed to strong demand for US dollars – particularly from the oil and manufacturing sectors which outmatched inflows.

However, the Shilling appreciated against both the Euro and the Pound Sterling, by 1.4 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively in July, 2021.

Interest Rate Movements

For July 2021, the Central Bank Rate (CBR) remained at 6.5 percent - the level that was set by the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee in June 2021 to further support recovery of economic activity amidst the pandemic.

Lending Rates²

Average lending rates on Shilling denominated credit declined to 17.0 percent in June 2021, from 19.8 percent in May 2021. The decline in rates is largely attributed to telecommunication companies accessing credit at prime rates, which were significantly lower than the going borrowing rate during the month. A number of commercial banks also adjusted downwards their lending rates, in response to the reduction in the CBR to 6.5 percent in June 2021, from 7.0 percent in May 2021.

Similarly, average lending rates on FX denominated credit fell to 6.0 percent, from 6.8 percent in May 2021.

Government Securities

During the month, there were 2 T-Bill auctions and one T-Bond auction in the primary domestic securities market. Shs 1,019.84 billion (at cost) was raised, of which Shs 519.98 billion was from T-Bills and Shs 499.86 billion was from T-bonds. Of the amount raised, Shs 688.28 billion was issued for the refinancing of maturing domestic debt and Shs 331.56 billion went towards financing other items in the Government budget.

Breakdown of Government Securities (Shs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
	Total Issuances	Domestic Borrowing for Fiscal Purposes	Refinancing
Q3 2020/21	3,887.11	1,038.05	2,849.06
Q4 2020/21	2,850.75	1,492.72	1,358.03
July 2021	1,019.84	331.56	688.28
FY 2021/22 to date	1,019.84	331.56	688.28

Average Yields (Interest Rates) on Treasury Bills

During July 2021, the average annualized yields (interest rates) on the 91-day and 364-day tenors increased whereas the 182-day tenor recorded a decline. The 91 –day T-Bill yield increased from 7.01 percent in June to 7.40 percent in July; the 182-day T-Bill yield edged downwards from 9.31 percent to 9.20 percent over the same period. The 364-day T-Bill yield was recorded at 10.25 percent in July 2021, an increase from 10.06 percent in June. The increase in the yields on the 91-day and 364-day T-Bills was partly due to a reduction in demand for the government paper as reflected by a decline in the bid to cover ratio during July 2021.

The bid to cover ratio reduced for all the tenors, from 2.8, 2.3 and 2.0, to 2.1, 1.8, and 1.5, for the 91, 182 and 364-day tenors respectively. The average bid to cover ratio for the month was 1.80, a decrease from 2.38 registered the previous month.

Yields on Treasury Bonds

There was one bond auction during the month, in which the 5-year and 20-year tenors were issued. The 5-year recorded a decrease in its Yield to Maturity (YTM) from 15.1 percent in April 2021 to 13.41 percent in July 2021. Similarly, the 20-year tenor recorded a decrease in its yield from 17.75 percent in January 2021 to 15.95 percent in July 2021. This was partly due to the reduction in the Central Bank Rate.

Outstanding Private Sector Credit³

The stock of outstanding private sector credit increased by 2.2 percent from Shs. 17,792.2 billion in May to Shs. 18,187.9 billion in June 2021. This performance signals a pick-up in economic activity before the second lockdown was announced and can be partly explained by the easing of monetary policy conditions. Prior to June 2021, the trend in private sector credit growth was downward.

The largest share of outstanding credit is accounted for by building, mortgage, construction, & real estate sector, at 20.4 percent, and is followed by personal & household lending, trade, agriculture and manufacturing at 18.4, 17.5, 12.3 and 11.9 percent, respectively. Except for personal and household loans which are largely aimed at improving aggregate demand, the rest of the sectors with strong credit are production-oriented, which is an indication of a recovery for June 2021. It should also be noted that these are among the sectors that were allowed to operate during the lockdown period.

Credit Extensions⁴

During June 2021, Shs 773.8 billion worth of credit was approved for disbursement to the private sector. Of the total value of loans applied for during the month, 61.9 percent were approved-slightly lower than the approval rate of 62.1 percent recorded in May 2021.

By sector categorization, personal & household loans received the largest share of credit approved in June 2021, at 31.3 percent, followed by trade at 18.6 percent, and building, mortgage, construction & real estate at 14.8 percent. The above three sectors were also the largest recipients of credit in May 2021.

External Sector Developments

Merchandise Trade Balance⁵

Uganda’s merchandise trade deficit widened both on a monthly and annual basis. On a monthly basis, the trade deficit widened by 55.8 percent from USD 309.29 million in May 2021 to USD 481.85 million in June 2021, which was largely attributed to a 19.8 percent increase in imports.

Similarly, on an annual basis, the trade deficit widened by 135.6 percent from USD 204.52 million to USD 481.85 million due to a faster increase in imports that more than offset the rise in export earnings.

The widening of the trade deficit reflects a rebound in demand for imports following the pandemic-driven fall last year. There has been an improvement in global supply chains which were disrupted in the first lockdown period (March to June 2020). Industries globally have since opened-up and this has resulted to improved import trade logistics for the country.

Merchandise Exports

Export receipts declined on monthly basis but increased on an annual basis. In comparison to the previous month, export receipts declined by 3.9 percent from USD 469.98 million in May 2021 to USD 451.72 million in June 2021. This performance was attributed to lower export receipts of commodities like mineral products, tea, tobacco and maize. On the other hand, Informal Cross Border Trade (ICBT) exports increased to USD 40.5 million in June 2021 from USD 38.8 million in May 2021.

Merchandise Exports by Product (US$ Million) (Source: BoU and MoFPED Calc.)
Product	Jun-2020	May-2021	Jun-2021	Jun-2021 vs Jun-2020 % Change	Jun-2021 vs May-2021 % Change
Total Exports	338.06	469.98	451.72	33.62	-3.89
Value Exported (US$ Million)	39.99	47.16	58.56	46.43	24.19
Volume Exported (Millions of 60 Kg Bags)	0.42	0.49	0.62	47.1	25.17
Average Unit Value (US$ per Kg of Coffee)	1.59	1.59	1.58	-0.46	-0.78
Non-Coffee Formal Exports	296.84	383.98	352.66	18.81	-8.16
Mineral Products (US$ Million)	161.32	190.32	165.9	2.84	-12.83
Cotton (US$ Million)	0.94	0.84	2.33	149.24	176.65
Tea (US$ Million)	7.02	8.5	7.93	12.98	-6.75
Tobacco (US$ Million)	1.56	6.77	2.97	90.08	-56.12
Fish & Its Prod. (Excl. Regional) (US$ Million)	10.65	9.42	10.04	-5.76	6.6
Simsim (US$ Million)	0.86	1.04	1.11	27.95	6.4
Maize (US$ Million)	5.95	7.97	3.54	-40.51	-55.55
Beans (US$ Million)	3.09	6.26	13.56	339.03	116.5
Flowers (US$ Million)	6.04	5.65	7.15	18.47	26.67
ICBT Exports	1.23	38.85	40.49	3,189.96	4.24

On annual basis, export receipts increased by 33.6 percent from USD 338.06 million in June 2020 to USD 451.72 million in June 2021. This was mainly on account of increase in the value of exports of coffee, minerals, cotton, tea, tobacco, simsim, beans and flowers during this period. ICBT exports increased from USD 1.23 million in June 2020 to USD 40.49 million in June 2021 largely due to higher exports to Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In the past 4 months, Uganda’s exports to DRC have increased partly due to accelerated efforts towards improving access to DRC market.

Destination of Exports⁶

In June 2021, the Middle East was the leading destination for Uganda’s exports, accounting for 37.7 percent of total exports. EAC and the Rest of Africa were the second and third largest destinations for exports during June 2021. The share of exports to the EAC and the Rest of Africa increased to 26.0 percent and 15.9 percent from 23.7 percent and 10.0 percent, respectively. The increase is partly attributed to benefits arising from regional integration.

Merchandise Imports⁷

On an annual basis, the value of imports increased by 72.1 percent to USD 933.6 million in June 2021 from USD 542.6 million in June 2020. This was attributed to a 68.2 percent increase in private sector imports to USD 877.8 million. At the same time, government imports during the month rose by 169.8 percent to USD 55.8 million. There was an increase in imports of vegetable products, beverages, fats & oil; chemical & related products; machinery, equipment, vehicles &accessories; plastics, rubber & related products; and petroleum products. Most of the private sector imports (apart from vegetable products, beverages, fats & oil) are investment input goods.

Compared to May 2021, the import bill increased by 19.8 percent from USD 779.3 million to USD 933.6 million in June 2021. This performance was attributed to higher private sector imports (up by 28.5 percent). The general increase in imports during June 2021 is due to improved import trade logistics compared to June 2020 when the global economy was under lockdown with supply chains severely disrupted.

Asia remained Uganda’s main source of imports, with a share of 34.4 percent, followed by Rest of Africa and EAC at 25.5 percent and 22.4 percent, respectively. Imports from Asia were mainly from China (38.1 percent), India (31.4 percent) and Japan (9.5 percent).

Within the EAC region, Tanzania and Kenya were the largest sources of imports, accounting for 59.8 percent and 39.8 percent, respectively.

Trade Balance by Region

During the month of June 2021, Uganda traded at a deficit with all regions save for the Middle East and European Union. However, the merchandise trade surplus with the Middle East declined from USD 123.8 million in June 2020 to USD 91.9 million in June 2021.

Uganda registered her largest merchandise trade deficit with Asia (USD 297.9 million) followed by the Rest of Africa (USD 166.5 million). The higher deficit with Rest of Africa was due to increase in imports from the region.

Merchandise Trade Balance by Region (US$ Million) (Source: BoU)
Region	Jun 2020	May 2021	Jun 2021
European Union	0.84	-13.02	2.22
Rest of Europe	-4.48	-11.09	-5.36
Middle East	123.85	102.68	91.91
Asia	-193.42	-259.23	-297.88
EAC	-85.56	-101.77	-91.66
Rest of Africa	-37.28	1.04	-166.44
Other Countries	-8.47	-27.89	-14.64

Fiscal Developments

Preliminary data shows that Government operations in July 2021 resulted into a deficit worth Shs 1,227.79 billion which was higher than the planned deficit of Shs 935.85 billion. This was on account of a combination of shortfalls in revenue & grants and higher than planned expenditure during the month.

Summary Table of Fiscal Operations July 2021 (Shs Billion) (Source: MoFPED)
Shs Billion	Program	Outturn	Performance	Deviation
Revenues and grants	1,649.22	1,384.02	83.9%	-265.2
Revenues	1,528.44	1,384.02	90.6%	-144.42
Tax	1,429.9	1,344.39	94.0%	-85.51
Non-tax	98.54	39.64	40.2%	-58.9
Grants	120.78	0	0.0%	-120.78
Project support	120.78	0	0.0%	-120.78
Expenditures and lending	2,585.07	2,661.81	103.0%	76.74
Current expenditures	1,461.49	1,649.99	112.9%	188.5
Wages and salaries	461.09	449.73	97.5%	-11.36
Interest payments	473.73	473.73	100.0%	0
o/w domestic	366.36	366.36	100.0%	0
o/w external	107.37	107.37	100.0%	0
Other recurrent expenditure	526.67	726.53	137.9%	199.86
Development expenditures	970.58	934.42	96.3%	-36.16
Domestic	402.39	803.32	199.6%	400.93
External	568.19	131.1	23.1%	-437.09
Net lending/repayments	0	0	__	0
Domestic arrears repayment	153	77.41	50.6%	-75.59
Domestic fiscal balance	-935.85	-1,277.79	__	__

Domestic Revenues

Government revenue collections amounted to Shs 1,384.02 billion in July 2021, representing 90.6 percent performance against the planned target of Shs 1,528.44 billion. Of this, Shs 1,344.39 billion was tax revenues while Shs 39.64 billion was non-tax revenues.

The shortfall in revenue collections is attributed to underperformances by indirect domestic and international trade taxes, which offset the stronger performance by taxes in the direct domestic category. Revenue collections were affected by restrictions imposed to curb the spread of the pandemic which slowed down economic activity during the month.

Direct domestic tax collections amounted to Shs 449.55 billion against the planned target of Shs 416.40 billion for the month. This performance was mainly on account of PAYE collections, which exceeded their target by Shs 36.29 billion. On the other hand, indirect domestic tax collections posted an 81.7 percent performance for the month due to underperformances by excise duty on spirits, phone talk time and internet data and VAT on beer, sugar and wholesale & retail trade, all of which were affected by the lockdown.

Taxes on international trade and transactions amounted to Shs 560.61 billion against the planned Shs 617.64 billion for July 2021. This performance was majorly on account of petroleum duty and import duty - two of the largest items in tax sub-head, as trade was adversely affected by the lockdown measures imposed by Government during the month.

Expenditure

Government expenditure during the month amounted to Shs 2,661.81 billion representing 103.0 percent performance against the planned expenditure levels. This was mainly on account of non-wage recurrent expenditures that exceeded their target by Shs 188.50 billion and was driven by additional resource requirements to support the health sector as well as to provide for cash relief to vulnerable sections of the population affected by the lockdown. On the other hand, wages and salaries were slightly below their target as there were delays in recruitment that affected payment of salaries during the month.

Development expenditure amounted to Shs. 934.42 billion performing at 96 percent. This was due to less disbursements received for externally financed projects which amounted to Shs. 131.10 billion representing only 23.1 percent of the target. On the other hand, domestically financed development spending amounted to Shs. 803.32 billion, which was nearly double the target for the month. Within this category, Shs 490.00 billion was spent on the purchase of machinery and equipment under Ministry of Defense, while Shs 110.00 billion was spent on the purchase of motor vehicles under Parliamentary commission.

East Africa Community Developments

EAC Inflation⁸

During July 2021, annual headline inflation in Tanzania increased to 3.8 percent from 3.6 percent in the previous month; thus, registering the highest level since December 2019. This was due to the increase in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (5.1 percent versus 4.7 percent); housing and utilities (3.5 percent versus 3.2 percent); transport (4.3 percent versus 3.8 percent) and clothing & footwear (4.5 percent versus 4.4 percent). Similarly, annual headline inflation for Kenya increased to 6.4 percent from 6.3 percent recorded in June 2021 as the impact of tax increases began to feed through to average prices of goods and services – particularly, cooking gas and mobile phone airtime.

On the other hand, Rwanda’s annual headline inflation decreased to -1.1 percent in July 2021 compared to 0.1 percent the previous month. This was due to a reduction in prices for food and non-food beverages (-3.5 percent versus 0.1 percent); and transport (-15.8 percent versus -0.1 percent).

EAC Exchange Rates

Currencies of majority of EAC Partner States depreciated against the US Dollar during the month. The Kenyan Shilling, Rwandan and Burundian Francs all depreciated against the US Dollar by 0.3 percent. The value of the Tanzanian Shilling was largely unchanged, depreciating by 0.02 percent against the US Dollar trading at TShs 2,299.1/USD in July 2021 from TShs 2,298.7/USD in June 2021.

Trade Balance with EAC

Uganda’s trade with the EAC resulted in a deficit of USD 91.7 million in June 2021, higher than the deficit of USD 85.6 million recorded in June 2020 largely on account of an increase in imports from Tanzania. Uganda’s imports from Tanzania increased by 78.6 percent to USD 125.1 million from USD 70.1 million during this period.

On the other hand, the trade deficit with Kenya narrowed from USD 40.0 million in June 2020 to USD 29.9 million in June 2021 following an increase in exports (up by 58.7 percent) and a decline in imports (down by USD 13.1 percent).

Within the EAC, Kenya accounted for the largest share of Uganda’s exports followed by South Sudan. The main sources of imports were Tanzania and Kenya.

Glossary

Term	Description
Bid to cover ratio	This is an indicator for the demand of Government securities in a given auction. A ratio equal to 1 means that the demand for a particular security is equal to the amount offered by the government. A ratio less than 1 means the auction is under subscribed and a ratio greater than 1 means that the auction is over subscribed.
BTI	The Business Tendency Index measures the level of optimism that executives have about current and expected outlook for production, order levels, employment, prices and access to credit. The Index covers the major sectors of the economy, namely construction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, agriculture and other services. The Overall Business Tendency Index above 50 indicates an improving outlook and below 50 a deteriorating outlook.
CIEA	CIEA is constructed using seven variables, that is; private consumption estimated by VAT, private investment estimated by gross extension of private sector credit, government consumption estimated by its current expenditure, government investment estimated by its development expenditure, excise duty, exports and imports. Data comes with a lag of one month.
Core Inflation	This is a subcomponent of headline inflation that excludes items subject to volatility in prices. It excludes energy, fuels, utilities, food crops and related items.
Headline Inflation	This refers to the rate at which prices of general goods and services in an economy change over a period of time usually a year.
Non-Performing Loan	This is a sum of borrowed money upon which the debtor has not made scheduled payments for a period usually at least 90 days.
Tenor	This refers to the time-to-maturity of a financial instrument, for example, if a certain instrument matures after 91 days – it is called a 91-day tenor.
PMI	The PMI is a composite index, calculated as a weighted average of five individual sub-components; New Orders (30%), Output (25%), Employment (20%), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15%), and Stocks of Purchases (10%). It gives an indication of business operating conditions in the Ugandan economy. The PMI above 50.0 signals an improvement in business conditions, while readings below 50.0 show a deterioration. The PMI is compiled on a monthly basis by Stanbic Bank Uganda.
Yield to Maturity (YTM)	Yield to maturity (YTM) is the total return anticipated on a treasury instrument if the instrument is held until it matures.

Online Resources

Visit us online at mepd.finance.go.ug.

The entire history of data used for this and previous Performance of the Economy Reports - subject to data revisions - can be downloaded at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-data-portal.

An interactive display of leading economic indicators and a GDP nowcast is available at mepd.finance.go.ug/apps/macro-monitor.

Data on Private Sector Credit, CIEA and External sector has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data comes with a month lag.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Data on private sector credit has a lag of one month.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Others include: Australia and Iceland.↩︎
Statistics on trade come with a lag of one month.↩︎
Data for Burundi and South Sudan not readily available.↩︎

July 2021

Performance of the Economy Report

Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development

2021-08-18